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NL50 TT valuebet @ river??? NL50 TT valuebet @ river???

01-22-2008 , 12:03 PM
Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG: $40.30
MP: $98.50
CO: $45.00
Hero (BTN): $55.85
SB: $49.50
BB: $70.85

Pre Flop: Hero is BTN with T T
UTG calls $0.50, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2.50, 1 fold, BB calls $2, UTG calls $2

Flop: ($7.75) J 6 5 (3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets $2, Hero raises to $6, BB folds, UTG calls $4

Turn: ($19.75) 5 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

River: ($19.75) 2 (2 players)

can i valuebet the river? villain is a complete fish whom i never saw folding before the river
NL50 TT valuebet @ river??? Quote
01-22-2008 , 12:27 PM
If villain checks the river I'm betting like 1/2 the pot.
NL50 TT valuebet @ river??? Quote
01-22-2008 , 12:28 PM
I don't THINK you can. What would he bet/call on the flop that you beat if he calls. He could be on an OESD (although unlikely from preflop action). If he is then he folds when he misses and calls/raises when he's hit, or he's got a jack, 6, 5. The only one you get value from is a 6. So I think his likely range is too small to get value from. No bet for me.
NL50 TT valuebet @ river??? Quote
01-22-2008 , 12:34 PM
Agree with Nemesis, a A6, 77-99 are the only hands that pay you off. It's too narrow for me.
NL50 TT valuebet @ river??? Quote
01-22-2008 , 01:18 PM
GRUNCH

Our flop raise is offering villain almost 4/1. This is certainly never folding JX+ and is also getting precariously close to matching the equity villain needs to continue correctly with 1p or overs only or some fishy draw.

So I think that if we are raising the flop for value against the large part of his range that has no J in it (but that will probably call anyway), we might as well push that value edge by raising more and in the process buy some protection.

I don't think I call the flop, but I guess you could argue that if we are assigning villain 25% equity on this flop (at the very, very most), we are pretty far ahead a lot and can just play the pot small and try to pick a little bit of value somewhere against his Grand Canyon-like range - if he outdraws me once in a while, meh, big deal. This line might even get us close in value terms to raising the flop bigger since monkeyboy will indeed have a J sometimes and we lose more on flop those times. Dunno.
NL50 TT valuebet @ river??? Quote
01-22-2008 , 06:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chomp
GRUNCH

Our flop raise is offering villain almost 4/1. This is certainly never folding JX+ and is also getting precariously close to matching the equity villain needs to continue correctly with 1p or overs only or some fishy draw.

So I think that if we are raising the flop for value against the large part of his range that has no J in it (but that will probably call anyway), we might as well push that value edge by raising more and in the process buy some protection.
Agreed Chomp.

Oh, I don't think you can valuebet the river. donk/call is TPNK too often.
NL50 TT valuebet @ river??? Quote

      
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