Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
Hero ($72.50)
($37)

Dealt to Hero J T

calls $0.25, Hero raises to $2, calls $1.50

FLOP ($4) 8 7 T

Hero bets $2.50, calls $2.50

TURN ($9) 8 7 T Q

Hero bets $5, calls $5

RIVER ($19) 8 7 T Q K


Villain is very loose and passive. He limps 62% of buttons and folds 62% to raises. He barely raises OTB and, seem to call light.

Is there more value to get on the river? Anyone have a feeling of what our equity might be?

I would obv prefer to bet 3.5-4 on the flop.

since chance of him raising river is small , bet/fold like 10$ and hope to get a crying call from something worse.

given reads bet/$5

keep his calling range as wide as possible

Im pretty sure villain has a lot of SD value here and wont bet any worse hands on the river.

So I would appreciate if someone could make a rough guess on what our equity might be.

To which degree can we remove combos like:

Q8
T8
J9

after he calls turn, assuming he always plays those hands like this preflop?

I think either I or you misunderstand the term equity. Do you mean how often we're ahead on the river before we bet? That isn't very relevant because his calling range will likely change widely based on our sizing. Since our chances of being ahead are very close to 0 when we bet and he raises or we check and he bets, we just need to decide what amount we can bet that will lead to the greatest EV. If he can fold 4th pair I think that amount is 0. If he'll call with 96 and such ever pick the biggest betsize you think he'll call a 9 with.

Of the hands you mentioned I would only discount J9.

Also, your flop sizing is good if you cbet a fair ammount, but your turn sizing is way too small. He'll call all 9s some jacks, and obviously all better hands no matter what size you chose so bet bigger. 7 is probably best.

Lol (?), both of us understand the term equity. I'm interested in our equity vs his "continuation range" vs our riverbet (pick a betsize), but I asked about our equity before any action on the river. If I would ever bet river, i would bet 1/4-1/3 pot and I dont think that the equity before my bet is very different from the equity vs his continuation range. Hmm, actually it might be because of (6x)/9x/Jx. Anyways, here is the new question:

What do you think my equity is vs the range that he doesnt fold on the river if I bet 1/3 pot?



Because of metagame reasons? The only way I can see how this is reasonable is if I think villain might think that I might bet bigger with stronger hands. Was it this?

I dont remembery my cbetting history with him, but in general i bet dry boards, and boards with a lot of good turn barreling cards vs him. And with value/semibluffs.

Cool, this makes sense.

Never having played him or 50nl, I'd say it's around 40% unless people are significantly worse than 100nl. Since all I have to go on is that he's loose passive I'm assuming that he doesn't stab when checked to so I just check fold. If he's more of just a normal fish who's passive on the flop and turn and aggressive on the river then I bet something like 7 to avoid getting bluffed out of the money in the pot.

Yeah the cbet size comment was mostly for metagame reasons. Even fish are aware of betszing tells.

Edit. In my previous post I didn't mean 96. I meant 86.

I must say I size my bets a lot after my hand strength and dryness vs fish, so maybe I shouldnt do that. What if I bet small with both value and bluffs on dry? If the fish havent seen what the sizes mean yet, how do you assume he thinks?

Vs very passive straight forward fish, im betting 1/2 pot IP on dry boards as bluff, and I never get c/r'ed. Is it that we are afraid of getting c/r'ed as bluff, or is it that we wont get much value when we have a hand because we bet bigger? So far I'm just assuming they forget about betsizing when they have a pair or draw, so they somehow just talk them selves into a call anyways, even if I suddenly bet bigger.

i'd definitely size my bets based on what i want the fish to do and also my hand strength, he won't notice. i'd rather bet $5.5 on the flop than $2.5 but i think my std is 3 or 4. i usually get a lot of folds from fish if i bet the river on this type of texture so i think i just c/f this hand, but maybe betting $4 or something will get enough calls from 7x/8x but i've not tried it enough to say for sure

I frequently bet realllly small here to get value from 7x/8x - like $4 or $5 bucks will get called almost 100% of the time by those hands. He's never raising worse than AJ on the river if he's passive so you won't valuecut yourself too hard if he has Qx/Kx.

I can't see him calling anything more than a small $5 value bet with a hand worse than yours, betting $5 and folding to a raise seems like the best option here as you would induce a bluff by checking which you could not really call and he's unlikely to raise your bet if he is passive.

b/f $6