Ignore the turn play and just say we had bet the turn ourselves.

Because of the lack of 4x in his range i cant really see 3 streets of value here. Gave him J 7-J A pre which is 50 combos right? 4 4, 7 7 and 2 2 add up for 9 combos. Of hands we beat i gave him 4 5s, 4 6s, 4 7s, A 4, K 4s, A 7 and possibly he might call with a few smaller pp under 8 8.

Seems he just has way too many Jx by the river. Is there any point in bluffcatching the river if we had bet the turn to bluffcatch some flushdraws?

Am i right in assuming if the flop wouldve had a 8 instead of a 4, it would be more of a 3 street spot?

PokerStars - $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (SB): $95.29
BB: $53.23 (VPIP: 35.34, PFR: 22.77, 3Bet Preflop: 6.91, Hands: 3,012)
UTG: $58.98 (VPIP: 27.88, PFR: 22.00, 3Bet Preflop: 8.37, Hands: 3,675)
CO: $18.64 (VPIP: 32.65, PFR: 12.24, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 51)
BTN: $58.27 (VPIP: 20.26, PFR: 17.74, 3Bet Preflop: 9.02, Hands: 315)

Hero posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.75) Hero has A A

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $1.50, BB calls $1.00

Flop: ($3.00, 2 players) 4 J J
Hero bets $2.00, BB calls $2.00

Turn: ($7.00, 2 players) 7
Hero checks, BB bets $5.00, Hero calls $5.00

River: ($17.00, 2 players) 2
Hero checks, BB bets $12.00, Hero calls $12.00

I assume the biggest question is how cally the villain is on the river. This particular guy folded loads on the river, so against him for sure it wouldnt be a valuebet.

Assuming you bet the turn and he calls, you can x/c river depending on how many missed FDs you give him (and he bets them with) compared with the hands he bets for value which I think they should be Jx+. Also you need to factor in how many spazz bluffs he has considering he looks laggy.

But to answer your question, I dont think there is 3 streets of value on that board when betting yourself all streets without dynamic.

A loose player should have loads more flushdraws than tighter ones, so that should make it an easy check-call on river?

Check-call turn here should only be used against villains who float a lot but standard to bet usually?

imo villain's river calling range is wider than their river betting range so bet river for value.

if the flop had an 8 on it this would increase their river calling range (A8, K8, Q8s, J7s, etc) AND their river betting range (since an 8 on the flop puts some straight draws in their range and more floating possibilities).

however, I think their river calling range will increase more than their river betting range...if we held the A this would be even more the case since that reduces the number of busted flush draws we can bluff-catch.

This looks wrong. Just cause they dont bet river with a big range, doesnt mean we can valuebet river. Its more to do with how big of a range they are calling the bet with that we beat and i did some combo work. Without some agro history and him looking us up with A high, there seemed to be more combos that beat us than ones that would call and we beat.

why are we betting the flop then, if we cant get 3 streets of value?

You forgot that he has flushdraw combos also which make for more weaker hands. And he will be floating flop with Ax Kx aswell.

Id like someone to talk more about the flushdraws vs trips bluffcatching theory. If he has 50 combos of Jx and we need about 30 percent against his range with that river bet, then how loose of a calling range he needs to have to have the about 20 flushdraw combos to bet river with?

I got a feeling ive just went for a bluffcatch vs flushdraws far too much against people who likely had very few fldraw combos.

Villain has a flush draw ~10% of the time here aka not that much. Villain has trips ~15% of the time, yet no made hand ~40% of the time.*

*flopzillaing with a villain range of 99-22, AJ-A8, A7s-A2s, KQ-KT, K9s, QJ-QT, JT, J9s, T9s, T8s (20%)----> I have purposefully given villain a narrower range than realistic to illustrate just how much of their air they can bet when checked to on the flop. You have 3k hands on villain...any reads/notes?

Yes, but villain will probably be betting a pretty wide range when we check but muck a ton of that when we bet. Besides, if you wanted to take advantage of a wide floating range, you should be checking the turn so they can bet that wide range (which you did, nh). C-betting because they are floating a lot and then just barreling the the turn just forces them to muck most of their floats.

Not folding here, either bet turn and bluffcatch river or call down his float barrels.

bet the turn check call river