hey guys,
villain was 21/9/7 over 67 hands.


Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BTN: $73.20
SB: $48.00
BB: $26.40
UTG: $9.50
UTG+1: $56.10
UTG+2: $86.60
MP1: $27.00
Hero (MP2): $47.60
CO: $9.25

Pre Flop: Hero is MP2 with 8 8
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2.50, 4 folds, UTG+1 raises to $6.50, Hero calls $4

Flop: ($13.75) 3 5 7 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $12.50, Hero folds



i´m getting 10:1 implied odds on my preflop call. that´s usually not enough for setmining, but i thought since he limp reraised his range is AA, KK and AK to a lesser extend. i know it´s only 67 hands but villain showed a tendency to be aggressive so i thought chances were good to stack him if i hit.
i assume he has one of the big pairs 85% of the time and stacks off with it.
i flop a set around 12% of the time (2/50+2/49+2/48)
when i flop my set (12%) he´ll have AA or KK 85% of the time and stacks me:

EV = 0.12 * 0.85 * 41.10 (eff. stack) - 0,88 (88% where i miss) * 4 (preflop call) = 0.67

so i had a huge statistical win of 67 cents in that hand
if you think that the assumption he holds AA or KK "only" 85% seems too low to you - i also calculated the EV if he held AA or KK 98% of the time and it´s still just about 1.3$.

just a hand i reviewed. thought some of you might be interested. let me know if something is flawed there.
have a nice day

I think this is ok.

sounds fine to me...as long as your EV is positive and you are sure he'll stack off to you i think it was a good play.

can't tell myself, but did you factor in the times when you flop a set, but he flops overset or sucks out?

Calling pre-flop here is fine IMO.

Looks good to me. You're getting paid off every time you hit here:

Flop: ($13.75) 3 5 8 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $12.50, Hero raises to $41.10 all-in

He can't fold AA or KK in this spot.

Wtf is 85%?

Well if you can be 100% sure that he has AA,KK,or AK.

There are 6 ways to make AA, 6 ways to make KK, 16 ways to make AK. This means that 16/28=4/7=57% of the time he'll have AK or 43% of the time he'll have AA,KK and stack off.

AK hits TPTK or better 1/3 times about. So 57%*33%=19%. (but you'll flop your 8 much less than 12% of the time here (about 8%), because he's hitting an A or K which takes up a card). Not to mention you have to subtract the 16% of the time he has KK and an A flops. 43%/2 * 16% = 3.44%.

Definitely not stacking off: 3.44% + 38% = 41.44% (AK or KK locks up) No matter you have have.

Probably stacking off: 40% * 12% + 19% * 8% = 4.8% + 0.152% = 5%
(AA,KK you flop 8 - KK flop A you flop 8) + (AK TPTK, you flop 8)

You're check folding 88% of the time to a CBET. 12%-5% you're going to win the pot plus maybe a CBet.

EV:

5%*($41.10 + $9) + 7%*($9 + $10) + 88%*(-4) =

EV of stack off + EV of call, hit set, take down pot with him CBetting and you c/ring + amount you win by calling and c/fing flop (negative obviously)

$2.51 + $1.33 - 3.52 = $.32 cents. Less than one big blind.

But this is assuming you win that 10 bucks from him CBetting with KK on A board or AK on missed board. (Without this ten bucks the second number is $.63 making EV $-.38. If you know this guy will CBet with AK 100% of the time this play is not even one big blind of +EV. IF he CBets 0% of the time ni that scenario it's not even one big blind of -EV. My guess is the number will be somewhere in the middle.

Not to mention the times he flops a FD with AKs or other crazy shtt that happens in poker. I say since this is such a 0 EV play it's extremely read dependent. I would only call if I could put this guy on a big range of shtt PF and I was in position (oh right, you're not in position so that gives you like 0 bluff equity). Obviously he could have QQ (only like 30some% of the time an overcard will flop) which isn't in your favor, or JJ (46% of the time an overcard will flop). And you're going to have no confidence bluffing this OOP.

I probably just fold pre. I think you are making a lot of assumptions against a player who you only have 67 hands of history against. Also, why do you think AA/KK make up 85% of his range? I would think AK makes up a larger portion and there will be times where you hit and villain misses where you don't stack him.

My thoughts exactly.

Also, we're not even sure if he will stack off with AA or KK postflop.

Just fold pre and I don't think it's that close

Glad to hear this after being a little puzzled by the first several responses. I'm almost always folding here, but I honestly don't know the math and have never been very comfortable in these spots, and thus fold since I don't like playing pots where I am particularly uncomfortable.

Kudos to OP for at least technically analysing the hand, however bkar824's maths look "more correct".

Does it suck to have to fold a good hand preflop? Sure does, but your folding the worst hand and you don't have the odds to draw.
Calling is a mistake, but its not such a huge mistake that you are going to end up busto because of it. However its a constant drain on the winrate/bankroll and it can often deceive because you can easily run hot setmining.

first of all thanks for all your answers

[QUOTE=bkar824;5249905]Wtf is 85%?

Well if you can be 100% sure that he has AA,KK,or AK.

There are 6 ways to make AA, 6 ways to make KK, 16 ways to make AK. This means that 16/28=4/7=57% of the time he'll have AK or 43% of the time he'll have AA,KK and stack off.


i think that your standard NL50 player´s limp reraise is aces or kings most of the time. i seldom see someone doing it with AK but that´s just my personal experience. i know that there´s 16 way to make AK but i doubt that people would limp reraise AK a high percentage of the time.
otherwise i like the analysis very much, thanks for your effort.