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NL50, river decision NL50, river decision

06-06-2008 , 01:40 PM
Villain is 76/27/2.4, but only over 37 hands. I haven't seen him do anything too insane, and the check/minraise-pot-pot line worries me...

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BB: $52.55
UTG: $201.35
Hero (CO): $109.10
BTN: $56.15
SB: $54.30

Pre-Flop: A J dealt to Hero (CO)
UTG calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.25, 3 folds, UTG calls $1.75

Flop: ($5.25) J 2 2 (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $4, UTG raises to $8, Hero calls $4

Turn: ($21.25) 3 (2 Players)
UTG bets $21.25, Hero calls $21.25

River: ($63.75) K (2 Players)
UTG bets $63.75, Hero
NL50, river decision Quote
06-06-2008 , 01:44 PM
i fold river, maybe even turn
NL50, river decision Quote
06-06-2008 , 01:53 PM
By the river the only hand I can reallly see him having is A2 (probably sooooted) and MAYBE KJ. You have enough hands on him to say he is for sure a donkey, but not enough to know what his limping/raising range is.

As he kept firing and I would eliminate weaker J's and lean more toward the A2.

I fold river.
NL50, river decision Quote
06-06-2008 , 01:57 PM
Against this opponent I am going to call here. Your sample size is small, but factoring all the hands he is playing, he still looks like a maniac.
NL50, river decision Quote
06-06-2008 , 02:03 PM
flop action could be anything,
the alarms start to go off on the turn
the river is a clear fold w/o reads

with villain's stats, he could easily be someone you have to close your eyes and stack off to for 200bb with TP, but you just don't know yet. It's arguable that turn is a fold but i'm a calling station, especially w TP, so i suck and call. Against a nit, the flop might even be a fold, but the odds that a 76 vpip player is bluff are huge
NL50, river decision Quote
06-06-2008 , 02:36 PM
Push turn>Call turn imo. Probably fold though. If the stats were over more hands I'd be pretty tempted to stick it in with anything.
NL50, river decision Quote
06-06-2008 , 02:53 PM
i would just fold on the turn. even though he's only played 37 hands, he's seen the flop in almost 30 of them. if he was gonna go crazy here with something stupid like a Jx hand or a total bluff, the odds are good that you would have already noticed him acting really crazy. plus he's got a lot of stupid hands in his range like 92s. i mean, its so ******ed to fold on that board, but i'm pretty sure i would, especially if i hadnt seen him mashing on the pot button already.
NL50, river decision Quote

      
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