vs
Bu - 28/21 3b 6.9, cbet 45, agg 2.6, 1kh
BB - 31/8 agg 1, 14h


Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
Hero ($41.92)
BB ($39.50)
UTG ($52.58)
CO ($25)
BTN ($49.68)

Dealt to Hero Q T

fold, fold, BTN raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.25, BB calls $1

FLOP ($4.50) 9 8 8

Hero bets $3.50, BB raises to $12.25, BTN folds, [color=red]Hero ...?

I'm leading as I want some money form BB and BU is not c-betting a lot.
When BB is raising ... well, I'm sure that now I'm behind. I thought that even if he has 8 I should be break even here? And maybe he does it with 9, other FD ... Tough to judge after a few orbits.
Is anyone folding here?

I dont hate the call pre b/c of the fish in the BB, if he was a TAG I'd rather 3bet. Leading the flop is ok, but when the passive fish makes a big raise, not only you are behind, but also your overcards are probably not outs, he has some 8x and 99 in his value range, not much else. I'd fold.

i don't like leading here because you will either get a raise and then our hand is very difficult to play or a fold which isn't a bad result but we could be winning more by making one of our draws.

He seems like a passive fish so he won't be raising the flop without trips or better, you're crushed and he won't fold to a raise. Fold.

fold pre, as played prob better to c/r here than lead

c/r

I don't like the call from the sb, even though the fish in the pot you don't have position on him. Since he is so passive, his raise prob represents an 8...maybe a 9? don't think he has a flush draw..

Nevertheless, you're right, if all the money goes in pre you should have 11-13 outs and if he just has a 9 then you have 15-18. I would shove

so 3 combos of 99 and 1 of 88 and I guess 10 of A8, K8s, something like that?

We have 12 outs and he's very unlikely to cover any of them; are we getting coolered by boat+ hands often enough to fold? There's about PSB behind this raise and it's definitely going in on a J imo and almost certainly on a club...

But yeah, c/r makes a lot more sense... he'll fold a lot of air that he cbets with because lol paired flop and gotta charge FDs, and he'll obviously shove his trips+ over top but then we're more solidly priced in and don't have to worry about blank turns. Is he flatting anything? (TT+?)

perfect spot to c/c imo, so many cool things you can do ott, vs reg you can c/r any turn and rep big, vs fish you can donk really small and even call a small raise with implied odds, if flop gets c/ which will happen a lot, that's good too

reload preflop.

call preflop is good. i think call > 3bet > fold. if the big blind were a different player, this could change.

flop lead is fine. the fact that you don't have relative position improves the merit of donking b/c if you check, you're going to have to act first after the button if he happens to cbet. cases can also be made for c/r and c/c the flop, though.

once you choose to donk and are raised, it's an easy shove. this would be the case even if you had a full stack. with ~80% of a stack, the decision is trivial. i'd jam everything down to an overcard and a flush draw here. if i happened to have the flush draw w/ no straight draw and no overcards (think 5c4c), i'd fold.

So you are saying that the bb is either raising or folding all the time? I think that is highly inaccurate as these types of players call a lot and we will have a lot of equity against his range in that spot.

I agree with this. we still have good equity vs. 8x and a huge draw. and we are only 80bb deep