Villian is 13/10 over a really small sample. I've always considered this a clear value bet, but lately villians has shown KK or AA quite frequently. Is river a value bet?

Or is it a value bluff spot as aejones so nicely puts it, when it's a value bet sometimes and sometimes not, when betting is probably like Ev+-0 but it makes you harder to play against.

Poker Stars $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players - View hand 2368793
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: $29.25
SB: $62.07
BB: $25.00
UTG: $50.08
UTG+1: $53.94
UTG+2: $50.80
MP1: $56.57
MP2: $100.75
Hero (CO): $50.00

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with Q Q
2 folds, UTG+2 raises to $1.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.50, 3 folds

Flop: ($3.75) 8 T 6 (2 players)
UTG+2 bets $2.00, Hero calls $2

Turn: ($7.75) 9 (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $5.00, UTG+2 calls $5

River: ($17.75) 6 (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets $8.50, UTG+2 calls $8.50

What do you expect Villain to call with?

JJ, top pair type of hand like JTs or ATs, if he opens T9s. Those kind of hands that he might open and turn the hand into a bluff catcher since I stab quite alot when checked too, sometimes far too much.

The hands that beat me that would play the hand like this is basicaly only AA and KK, and he really dosn't need that many combinations of the other hands for this to be okey. I know most players standard opening ranges dosn't contain alot of the hands I stated in the beginning, but I'm guessing most players would open them if there's weaker players in the blinds for example, or if it's just generally a soft table.

EDIT: Maybe this is a slightly bad example since the 7 completes the straight, but if the 8 was a 3 or something would we do anything differently?

So with AA/KK and every single combo available of ATs/JTs/T9s/JJ.....

www.pokerstrategy.com
Board: 8hTs6s9h6h
Equity Win Tie
MP2 46.15% 46.15% 0.00% { QsQc }
MP3 53.85% 53.85% 0.00% { KK+, JJ, ATs, JTs, T9s }

Not good enough for a value bet.

Now think that he doesn't always open T9s/ATs/JTs. If we change it so that he opens those hands 80% of the time, our equity against that same range goes down to 44.5%. Even worse.

Now think that he won't even c/c the river with some of those hands. It's not unreasonable for him to fold the Tx hands some decent % of the time. If we say he folds those 25% of the time, our equity goes down even further to 41.5%.

So even in the best case scenario, he's not calling our bet with enough worse hands to make betting more profitable than just checking back.

Evidently it seems like checking behind is the best play, need to start doing this kind of math stuff on my own. Thanks for explaining your though process!