UTG+1 is a 27/3/1.7 over 200 hands and pfr from EP with 0%, CO is a 26/15/3.0 over just 50 hands.
First of all I wanna say that I misplayed the hand on some streets (flop and probably river)..... :-(
Preflop is fine I think, getting 7,5:1. On the flop I hit a very nice flop. My original plan was to check/raise but I somehow chickened out. I think I have to c/r to around $11. Anyone disagree with this? If so, why? Our plan is to get it in on the flop, right?
On the turn I hit a very good card again. I was planning on c/r again, since I was sure that the CO will bet, maybe even the UTG+1 guy. After the minraise from the CO I changed my plans and elected to call again. I thought that at this point I only get called if I'm beat (53, 33) and since the pot will be around $37-42 (depends on what the UTG+1 villain does) I can still get my stack in on the river. I dont mind the call from UTG+1, he probably has QQ or JJ.
Somehow I think the river check is bad, but I'm not so sure about it. I mean, he (CO) will bet if he has me beat, but I only think there is one possible hand and this is 33. He would raise KK and TT pre and 53 on the flop (he will also raise QQ, JJ pre and if not pre on the flop). So he either has air (busted draw or AQ type of hands) or a hand with a 5, like 54, 56, 57,probably A5 too and he may have KsXs with which he might inclined to check behind. So after giving this some thought and also taking into consideration that he is a very aggressive player I now think checking is not the worst play since he has way more "value" and air-type hands (with which he might bet/bluff) than hands with showdown-value (Kx-type of hands with which he will check behind). Thoughts?
Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players
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SB: $10.00
Hero (BB): $50.00
UTG: $12.80
UTG+1: $56.40
MP: $8.25
CO: $115.80
BTN: $49.25
Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BB with 5
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A
1 fold,
UTG+1 raises to $1,
1 fold, CO calls $1, BTN calls $1,
1 fold, Hero calls $0.50
Flop: ($4.25) T
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5
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3
(4 players)
Hero checks,
UTG+1 bets $2.50, CO calls $2.50, BTN folds, Hero calls $2.50
Turn: ($11.75) 5
(3 players)
Hero checks,
UTG+1 bets $5,
CO raises to $10, Hero calls $10, UTG+1 calls $5
River: ($41.75) K
(3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks,
CO bets $32.50, Hero ??