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NL50 overcard turn, river plan? NL50 overcard turn, river plan?

11-26-2011 , 09:49 AM
BB is a 86/40 fish who has folded to Cbet 6/7. Villain is playing 25/23 over 1.2k hands. Cbet flop 81%. Cbet turn 58% and river 55% (6/11). AF by street 11.2/3.2/2.3. WWSF 54%. I've seen a few times that he pots strong hands vs fish so I'm inclined to think he isn't that strong on the flop. I have a note about him 3barreling: "open T9cc, Cbet J63r OOP HU, Cbet Jc turn 1/2pot (turned FD), bet 7c river ~60% pot"

Everest - $0.50 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players

BB: $34.30
UTG: $79.24
MP: $82.80
CO: $71.05
Hero (BTN): $127.70
SB: $16.25

SB posts SB $0.25, BB posts BB $0.50

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero has T T

fold, fold, CO raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, fold, BB calls $1.00

Flop: ($4.75, 3 players) 9 3 3
BB checks, CO bets $2.25, Hero calls $2.25, fold

Turn: ($9.25, 2 players) A
CO bets $6.00, Hero calls $6.00

River: ($21.25, 2 players) 4
CO bets $16.50, Hero?
NL50 overcard turn, river plan? Quote
11-26-2011 , 10:18 AM
I would fold river. I think its annoying but I would.

He might just barrel there because its ultra hard for you to have an ace in your range, so because of that, you could just call and hope is bluffing too much.

You need to be good ~30% ott, a little more than 1 out of 4, so if you think he can be agro and bluff this often, then calling should be ok, given your reads that he likes to pot with value hands against fish. The only thing is, the board is so dry and its unlikely that the fish caught a piece, so I think him betting huge would fold out too many hands, so maybe he went smaller with JJ+ and now he is just value betting well because he knows, you know that the ace is a card he is going to attack a lot and you might look him up light. His sizing on the river is pretty suspect though. Its quite big imo. If he bet a touch smaller, I would be more inclined to fold i think, but it looks a big strong to be a thin VB with JJ/AJ and that weights his range towards the top more and probably includes more bluffs.

Real time, I would fold but im starting to feel like I would call if it happened today.
NL50 overcard turn, river plan? Quote
11-26-2011 , 10:50 AM
I think it's close but I might actually call the river, just because he's so aggressive and it's the perfect board for him to barrel away on.
NL50 overcard turn, river plan? Quote
11-26-2011 , 10:58 AM
Hmm idk villains river sizing is pretty big for value considering your range is pretty face up a 9x and mid pps, despite this I still doubt that he value bets jj+ here so obviously villain can have a lot of air in his range just depends how often he bluffs.
I guess I lean slightly towards folding but tbh I think raising,calling or folding are all ok
NL50 overcard turn, river plan? Quote
11-26-2011 , 11:39 AM
Why not 3bet preflop or otf?
NL50 overcard turn, river plan? Quote
11-26-2011 , 11:44 AM
To let the fish from the blinds go in
NL50 overcard turn, river plan? Quote
11-26-2011 , 11:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jukydi
To let the fish from the blinds go in
He's folded to Cbet 6/7 times he's either calling or folding I don't think the value matters. Plus you gain pot control instead of letting the aggressive player barrel away.
NL50 overcard turn, river plan? Quote
11-26-2011 , 12:01 PM
I would also 3bet pre but as played it depends how light you think he can value bet, can he value bet KK QQ JJ? if so its close but if not callings fine... take note what the river size means.
NL50 overcard turn, river plan? Quote
11-26-2011 , 12:25 PM
3betting pre is bad
NL50 overcard turn, river plan? Quote
11-26-2011 , 12:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ProfesorKaos
3betting pre is bad
He can call with much worse and we are IP... if you cant 3bet TT for value btn vs co then theres a problem lol
NL50 overcard turn, river plan? Quote
11-26-2011 , 12:37 PM
I fold turn. Although he has ridic cbetting stats, this turn card will be bet on the river like 100%. And since he cbets so wide, he's probably cbetting a lot of ace high hands.
Otherwise, if you call turn, you gotta call river. Decision is on the turn imo.
NL50 overcard turn, river plan? Quote
11-26-2011 , 12:44 PM
3b/5b pre might be ok if he 4bets a lot but flatting is obv fine/good.

sizing makes me want to call river but idk. btw turn might be too thin if we fold river always. It's villain dependent but he's pretty likely to follow thru on the river especially since flop is 3way so it's harder for you to float with Ax
NL50 overcard turn, river plan? Quote
11-26-2011 , 12:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by __cco__
I fold turn. Although he has ridic cbetting stats, this turn card will be bet on the river like 100%. And since he cbets so wide, he's probably cbetting a lot of ace high hands.
Otherwise, if you call turn, you gotta call river. Decision is on the turn imo.
+1
Calling turn and folding when a brick hits seems counter-intuitive to me.
NL50 overcard turn, river plan? Quote
11-26-2011 , 01:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DumbBlondeXOXO
He can call with much worse and we are IP... if you cant 3bet TT for value btn vs co then theres a problem lol
you must be mentally ******ed


there are no 3b stats in his post. average reg plays 4b/fold, TT has 33% equity vs standard 4b range. isloating ourselves against the TAG's range, which is better than ours with no history, no rr wars, stats reads etc as opposed to calling and letting the huge fish who cant fold a pair come along, is a monumental mistake imo
NL50 overcard turn, river plan? Quote
11-26-2011 , 02:04 PM
What min-raise?

We aren't set-mining here.

What??!?!?
NL50 overcard turn, river plan? Quote
11-26-2011 , 02:13 PM
3bb is not a minimum raise Albert. And there exists an option to call pre flop without explicitly set mining, it's called "playing poker".

I don't often 3bet TT without history but I'm only inclined to do so if I have been aggro towards CO and expect him to 4bet light with a decent frequency. Seeing as OP didn't mention that and we're 140bbs deep I much prefer flatting pre. BB being a fish also makes 3betting a bit silly.
NL50 overcard turn, river plan? Quote
11-26-2011 , 02:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterMittens
What min-raise?

We aren't set-mining here.

What??!?!?
Nevermind. I misread the action preflop, so I deleted the post.

However, if you just call preflop instead of reraising preflop, then what are you doing if not set mining? Is the plan to call down every street post flop when hero misses the set?

I think reraiseing preflop makes more sense than just calling preflop, and if you do just call, then it really is with the intention of playing for a set in the hopes of playing a big pot that way.

If not set mining, why just call preflop?
NL50 overcard turn, river plan? Quote
11-26-2011 , 02:41 PM
The range of hands that raise pre is much wider than the range of hands that call a reraise from us. I'm much happier playing TT to that range.

And if your plan is to never flat pre you're probably going to have some problems.
NL50 overcard turn, river plan? Quote
11-26-2011 , 02:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Albert Moulton
Nevermind. I misread the action preflop, so I deleted the post.

However, if you just call preflop instead of reraising preflop, then what are you doing if not set mining? Is the plan to call down every street post flop when hero misses the set?

I think reraiseing preflop makes more sense than just calling preflop, and if you do just call, then it really is with the intention of playing for a set in the hopes of playing a big pot that way.

If not set mining, why just call preflop?
ProfesorKaos explains why we are calling:

Quote:
Originally Posted by ProfesorKaos

there are no 3b stats in his post. average reg plays 4b/fold, TT has 33% equity vs standard 4b range. isloating ourselves against the TAG's range, which is better than ours with no history, no rr wars, stats reads etc as opposed to calling and letting the huge fish who cant fold a pair come along, is a monumental mistake imo
What this means is that CO is opening 23% of his hands, so we are well ahead of his range here. Also considering that his stats indicate he is positionally aware, he is likely opening a far greater percentage than that from the CO.

Our equity vs. his range is awesome.

Because he looks reggy and is OOP, he is likely to 4bet or fold to our 3bet. Our equity vs this 4bet range sucks balls. We have no info to tell us that he'll 4bet/fold or 4bet/call super light. Now we have to fold.

If he does just flat-call our 3bet, he's doing it with a much tighter range than his initial opening range. This means our equity isn't as good, and if that range is tight enough we will actually be behind.

In addition, calling means the fish in the blinds is going to come along too, with whatever random garbage he's holding. Aweseome! We have a ton of equity vs. random garbage plus a post-flop edge on the random fishy.

So, calling > 3betting.

After we've called, we're going to examine both the board texture as well as our opponents actions in relation to that board. We're going to take this information, combine it with information we've gathered about opponents during previous hands and then make a decision on how to proceed.

Some boards will be better to continue on than others. If the flop is all overcards, we'll likely give up on the hand. If the flop is all undercards, or a single over - we'll likely continue.

Last edited by MisterMittens; 11-26-2011 at 02:55 PM.
NL50 overcard turn, river plan? Quote
11-26-2011 , 07:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Albert Moulton
I think reraiseing preflop makes more sense than just calling preflop, and if you do just call, then it really is with the intention of playing for a set in the hopes of playing a big pot that way.
so you're are folding flop as played? that's just horrible, can't you see it?
NL50 overcard turn, river plan? Quote
11-26-2011 , 07:42 PM
Albert talks the most sense itt

listen to Albert
NL50 overcard turn, river plan? Quote
11-26-2011 , 09:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cheerful Demon
Albert talks the most sense itt

listen to Albert
not sure if serious
NL50 overcard turn, river plan? Quote
11-26-2011 , 10:09 PM
i would have raise the flop, the CB on the flop is air, and we don't want to call an A-Q turn to fold river.
NL50 overcard turn, river plan? Quote
11-26-2011 , 10:26 PM
I call river. I think villain seems capable to be bluffing often enough here.
NL50 overcard turn, river plan? Quote
11-26-2011 , 10:43 PM
Ez call river

Hes an idiot.


Also, i 3b preflop
NL50 overcard turn, river plan? Quote

      
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