Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BTN: $57.65
SB: $52.55
BB: $51.20
Hero (UTG): $70.70
CO: $65.90

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG with T K
Hero raises to $1.75, CO calls $1.75, 3 folds

Flop: ($4.25) J J K (2 players)
Hero bets $3, CO calls $3

Turn: ($10.25) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $6, CO calls $6

River: ($22.25) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $15, Hero requests TIME, Hero raises to $59.95 all in, CO has $40.15 behind, getting 2.3:1


yes, I am a bit creative. No, Im not playing scared money. And yes, these hands are the exact reason why I am not consistent winner. Still....
villain is 10/8/infinite over roughly 80 hands. He is there to make money, not to gamble.

flop is std. On the turn Im not betting for value, he never calls with worse, Im betting for protection: he can have gutshots that tried floating, but most important fact is: Im turning my hand face up by c/c and my hand is not strong enough to call down. Now, river is the fun street. I have no fold equity from betting and he never has worse, so I have to check.

He bets. My thinking process: first of all, there is negligible chance he is doing this with FD. Thats really not important though. He never has a boat. he might bet out AK here - Im really not checking bare Jack ever and most people dont like to fold top pair, including me obv: but my target is obviously to fold out JT and AJ, which, I think, shouldnt be too hard of a objective. Im easily playing decent amount of boats this way, just because he woudlnt raise me with a bare jack, so c/r would give my boats max. value.

so, am I too out of touch with reality?

fold pre
don't expect anyone to fold tptk or better at uNL ever.

you really think he bet/folds JT/QJ/AJ on this river???

and you say your playing a decent amount of boats this way? you can have almost no boats on this board...


also i dont feel like picking through all your logic but there are a billion holes in it

lol @ folding out JT and JA... you are repping exactly 1 hand, repping about a billion bluff possibilities and giving him 2.3:1 on a call, this was not the right spot here

subs: I would and Im a weak reg/station. Im not sure he flats QJ pre.
thepaul: its 5handed. Its not 2004.
ajt: 44 in my range too, always. KJ.. But yeah, its thin. His range is very thin too though. His JT/QJ has to account for AJ in my range doing stupid ****, even though I never check river with AJ.

22 from time to time, but when I have 22 here, Im in a bluffy mood, so it doesnt really count. He is nit though, Im not sure he will consider my range at all. Also, Im pretty sure that like noone ever bluffs here ever.

Interesting question is, what would 2+2 say to villain if he had 44 here and faced this shove.

Fwiw Im not defending my play too much and I need to unlearn doing this, but I want to know how bad it really is.

KJ will be discounted if he has a J, 44 is at best in the very far back of his mind before he snaps you off. seems like you are a good reg, i do things like this too, just tighten up in these spots where you can't rep well enough and you'll be a lot more profitable of course.. crai is cool but not a profitable play in this hand

and you're right, crai would give your boats max value... if you had one............. lol

Question. What are we trying to fold, that this guy calls two streets with and then bets the river, that we don't already beat? Baring JT or AJ?

We make moves when we know villains range is weak, not when it's uber strong.

I think you're out of sense with good common poker reasoning. It seems like you're making a ton of assumptions about the player, not actually going off any reads that you have of the player.

I firstly think your turn logic is kind of screwed up. You make the assumption that a 10/8/infinite over 80 is a good player and can play good postflop. With that being said you say you don't just C/C? Just because you C/C doesn't mean he is gonna put you on KTo exactly and soul read you and fire the river too with his missed draws. By C/C you keep the pot small whilst being OOP and with some showdown value. Betting again when you are either beat by better or beating a draw just doesn't seem like a good idea here. Plus you talked about protecting your hand and $6 isn't really protecting your hand. If he has a draw and thinks he can extract lots of money out of you by hitting a draw you haven't done any protecting of your hand by betting so little in a pot that looks like could end up being large. You are OOP to a nitty player and building up the pot. If you think he can semibluff let him and play poker on the river. When you C/C it looks like you could actually have a hand stronger than you do and might get a free showdown.

Similarly I wouldn't make the assumption that you can make this player fold out trips. With fish who just want to play hands and go to showdown with pairs you ought not try to fold them out when their range could include mostly TP type hands. Assuming the same thing about a 10/8 and having them try to fold out just a J is the same reasoning. Although different from a fish they might not be able to find themselves folding trips. I think I would need a note/read on this player before I even thought about making this play.

Dawn to dusk: As for turn, I really dont like c/c. First of all, god knows how big he bets if I check, so by setting betsize myself Im stopping this pot from getting too big. Second of all, Im really playing guessing game by giving up initiative, esp on the river.

as for the rest of your post, fair enough, I guess youre right...

this river is either a c/c or a c/f - if the villian is unknown, i c/c this all day long

c/r is just spew

I think your logic is good in the sense that you don't want to play a big pot OOP to a player with stats similar to this on a board like this. By the same token I think you're applying the idea improperly.

You have a hand with some showdown value. You said you are worried about how big the bet is going to be if the vill bets should you check. As you can see if you check the turn the bet would of been less than the bet he made on the river. Now you are faced with a bigger bet to call on the river with a hand that has some showdown value vs if you checked on the turn, he bet smaller, and you call. Again you made the assumption our vill would fire the river if he missed. Maybe. Maybe not. There is no shame in keeping the pot small by checking the turn and calling a bet with a hand that has some showdown value, and then reevaluating the river, even if you do fold.

Plus by betting the turn you essentially allow him to play perfectly against you. He can fold out all his floats and super marginal draws, call cheaply with all his draws that could win a big pot, and call with better. You don't allow him a chance to bet his air/draws. If he does bet his air/draws and checks the river after you call make note that he isn't double barreling his air/draws after checked to on the turn and called. Now in the future when this situation came up again you could play better.

Horrible line.

Don't ever expect anyone at NL50 to fold QJ or AJ. It won't happen. Why are you betting turn? I prefer c/c. Also, if he checks back, it's more likely he has QT or FD. Then if river misses you can think about calling.

It's spots like these that can cost you a lot of money. 90% of the time trying to bluff people off trips or TP @ NL50 is bad. Look for better spots instead, look at how the board turns out and think about what your opponent may have.

fold pre, the rest is stupid dont feed nits & stop watching high stakes poker

most of your post was tl;dr, but from the action the river is a fold or call like 98% of the time vs someone of his style. When you show such strength for so long, do u really think he will try to bluff you on the river when the brick of all bricks falls? His range is so weighed to jacks and strong kings that on the river you are prolly just bluff catching, and nothing worse will call you AI, so this is a call at best.

Dawn to dusk: He is not playing perfectly if he is calling the flop with gutshot and folding to a bet on the turn. I just think that if I check I will get into tons of ugly spots later on. Also, I dont have showdown value on the river, he has basically never worse hand there, I can as well openmuck basically (ok, he can have QQ or smth like once in a lifetime, w/e). I dont think I have to worry about FD. If nothing else, he'd prob raise it - not to mention that he has fairly limited number of suited spades in his range pre (ATss-debatable, AQss, maaaybe like T9ss and thats it).

Im trying to keep the pot small. If I bet, he will fold worse hands and call with better hands, which is essentially bad idea, but Im setting the price and its better than the second alternative. Also, Im making sure that just one another bet goes in, on my terms, so I can safely put him on a range and not have to guess.

If I check, he will bet all better hands and decent amount of worse hands in his range - and he might bet bigger than 6. I have no idea what the ratio is in this spot. I have no idea if he double barrels. Essentialy, Im playing guessing game and I think that I will not show a profit there. Sometimes I'll make incorrect fold, incorrect call etc.

Yes, now Im facing bigger bet on the river, but at least I'm 100% sure I am behind every time. Thats my reasoning for betting turn. However, this calculates with the idea that I will not try to impersonate durrrr on the river and spew massively.


not folding KTo fivehanded as std, I would need very good reason (=aggro guys to my left) for that. This table wasnt that aggro.

Peachies: read OP. Calling river would be a big mistake.

myggens:he never has QT, he has FD once in a blue moon. Maybe.

D104: as bad as I am, c/c is just a spew here. So is c/r

the only thing he is betting on the river is busted draws and hands with a jack in them... this is all you need to know about check/raising

you fold out his hands that are worse and the occasional KQs hand and get called by everything that is beating you

cmon man you know he cant fold trips or better (and if he somehow can he is in the minority and we dont really have any read on him)

its like trying to 3barrel a fish off a weak top pair when the board runs out really scary - ya maybe you think he *should* fold but you know he's just gonna click the call button

even if you are capable of playing a big value hand like this he will probably just assume that you would bet/bet/bet with a monster

also you dont really rep a big hand with your turn bet sizing

ok, fair enough, point taken.

subs, bb: betting turn is a mistake/betting turn is not a mistake? thx

dislike your logic for not c/f or c/c turn

you fold out bluffs and weak hands

He's not folding AJ, JT maybe. But I don't think this guy is going to be 1) value betting thinly and 2) have a b/f range on this river. Just my experience of playing with nits.