Villain has been pretty active over the last 6 hands or so, limped and raised a lot. We had a small clash before the hand happened, where I open from the CO with AJo for my standard 1.75 and he called me from SB. Flop comes 983r, he check/calls my cbet, turn is a 2, so now there's a draw on the board, it goes check-check, and the river is 8, and he goes ahead and bets 10.75 into a 10$ pot, and I obv. fold, pretty standard.

No primapoker converters anywhere

0.25|0.50 No Limit

HERO (CO) - $49.54
BUTTON - $67.22
SB - $96.74
BB - $54.11
UTG - $108.06

Preflop:
HERO is CO with: JA
1 fold, HERO raise $1.75, 1 fold, SB call $1.75, 1 fold.

Flop: 983 (Pot: $4)
SB check, HERO bet $3.00, SB call $3.00.

Turn: 2 (Pot: $10)
SB check, HERO check.

River: 8 (Pot: $10)
SB bet $10.76, HERO fold.

Now to the main hand

His stats are 62/35/1.94, and his street aggressions are 1.88/1.57/3.5 over 52 hands, so not too big a hand sample.

I really put the guy in this hand on some sort of draw or weak made hand.

I bet the flop like I usually do if I'm raising first in, and bet the turn as a scarecard comes off.
Now, what range is villain calling my turn bet with here? I'm thinking a good combodraw 78s, QJs, JTs, a suited ace, or a weaker queen and a slowplayed set of 5's or 6's.

As played, what should our river action be, against this villain? There is SO many busted draws, and with this guys river aggression, should we check/call, lead for value (or turn our hand into a bluff?) or just give it up and check/fold?

I'm leaning towards check/call, mostly because there's so many busted draws out there, and villain is somewhat aggressive on the river, and is quite likely to bluff with a busted draw, that he might else fold if we lead into him.

Now, if we decide to check/call, how large a bet should we be willing to call? And if we decide to lead the river, how much should we bet?

0.25|0.50 No Limit

HERO (UTG) - $49.00
CO - $69.47
BUTTON - $67.37
SB - $56.11
BB - $109.77

Preflop:
HERO is UTG with: QK
HERO raise $1.75, 1 fold, BUTTON call $1.75, 2 folds.

Flop: Q65 (Pot: $4.25)
HERO bet $3.25, BUTTON call $3.25.

Turn: A (Pot: $10.75)
HERO bet $7.5, BUTTON call $7.5.

River: 2 (Pot: $25.75)
HERO ???

Input on any streets much appreciated

c/c. Even though a lot of draws made it (34 and NFD's) from your description he's dumb/aggro enough to bet all the rest of them.

erm... why is this lag sitting to your left? those players go to your right. makes things a bit easier.

QFT

Looks like villain loves to stab river if checked to. He has a bunch of busted draws in his range as you said, and may well be capable of betting a worse Q.

The only things I can see you being concerned with are sets, but I think he'd raise you at some point on such a drawy board, 2 pair with like SCs, like 76, again would have raised you at some point, an ace, but the only A that makes sense is like AQ/A6 maybe (but again, see the note on 2p with 65...same applies), Ax cc might make some sense. The thing is with all the better made hands he could have apart from like Ax cc, you'd think a lot of the time he'd have raised you at some point in the hand for value/protection on such a drawy board. 34 is also a concern but its a small part of his range.

So most of the better made hands don't make a lot of sense for his line, most % of the time, whereas he can have busted straight/flush/combo draws a lot here, which he folds if you bet, and since it looks like he gets aggro on the river I think he can vb some worse Q some of the time. So I think c/c gets more value than betting out.

edit: the other cool thing is while it isn't necessarily a great flop to cbet, it isn't awful, and the A is a good double barrel card, so your range is pretty wide here, so he might well think he can take it away on the river with his missed draws/marginal made hands.

I like to check, if he hit and value towns me then oh welll.

He'll bet FDs and QX here plus his random junk too.

Ok, so I guess we can agree that check/call is the right move here, whereas he would probably bet a lot of busted draws, and he is likely to have such one, and protect his hand on earlier streets, because of a drawy board.

This is also the conclusion I came up with.

River: 2 (Pot: $26.75)
HERO check, BUTTON bet $13.37, HERO ??

What does this bet mean? Is he valuetowning us, or is it an attempt to look like a valuebet, but it's really air? The odds we're offered are just too good, so this would be a +EV call against his range, innit?

looking at his river aggression (even though it's a small sample, it still gives an indication), and with the tasty 25% odds, i'm inclined look him up. the bet size is exact half pot. there probably is a button for that.
you will get valuetowned at times, but at least you then know what his preferred vtown bet size looks like with x-strength hand.