Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BB: $20.00
Hero (UTG): $57.40
CO: $254.80
BTN: $57.40
SB: $50.00

Pre Flop: Hero is UTG with K Q
Hero raises to $1.50, 1 fold, BTN calls $1.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($3.75) Q 4 T (2 players)
Hero bets $2.50, BTN calls $2.50

Turn: ($8.75) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $7, BTN calls $7

River: ($22.75) 6 (2 players)

Villain is 20/13 over a small sample (46 hands), but seems to be pretty passive. Given that, should I blockbet/fold, or check/fold this river?

Edit: oh yeah, bet more on the flop, I know.

block bet i would say, make it like 1/3 pot he's never bluffraising

so you're saying bet 3bb more than he did on the turn? me no likey. and yea, even a semipassive donk will potentially bluffraise a weakass bet like that. if you bet like that it should be with the intentions of inducing action IMO. granted this has a bit to do with the exact tendencies of this guy, but we want to make as much as possible and folding to bluffs/valuebluffs isn't the best way to do that.

i'd valuebet half the pot(10.00-12.00) and THEN feel good about not getting bluffraised. if he's a showdown monkey he'll call with Q9s, QJ, JT, maybe a pp or some other random crapola(plus prob. a good chunk of hands that beat you like AQ/QT, etc.).

anyhoo, you can't win money if you dont bet. seriously, you should be ahead more than half the time he calls if your read is correct. the other alternative is c/f and i think that's perfectly acceptable as well. while it's lower variance i do think there's a bit less value in it.

James

He is never ever bluff-raising that river even if we bet 1/4pot, because he doesn't know how to turn his made hand into a bluff. KJ is the only draw that missed, so that would be the only hand to do it with.
Furthermore is his read that villain is passive, another reason he won't bluffraise against 3 barrels.
But it doesnt really matter that much whether we bet 10 or 8$.

Great post. In retrospect, I definitely think betting there is best. However, I'm not sure what the best line is against a decent, aggressive regular.

his read is over 40 something hands which, in the grand scheme of things, is closer to no read than one you can rely on.

yeah b/f is definitely best here

I think a decent TAG has a draw here less often.
Therefore betting is still right, but I think you need to bet more than 1/2pot, if you bet (villain dependant). But I think the line between c/f and b/f comes closer together.

I definitely agree that bet/folding about 2/3rd-3/4th pot is probably best if I bet. However, while he may have fewer flush draws, the ratio of made hands to flush draws will be lower as well since villain isn't going to be calling raises with JTo, KTo, etc. It's a close spot imo.

yeah agree, so stats are irrelevant
but i still think draws are a big part of his range, so betting a little bit less if you plan on folding is good imo

If he's passive, I'd bet $8-$10 on the river and fold to a raise. Should bet more on the flop as well; your flop bet is a smaller share of the pot than your turn bet.

i don't hate the flop bet size. it goes well with c-betting at a discount. you can't only bet this amount when you have air...

Flop bet is perfect, we are not trying to build a huge pot with TP2K