I was playing TAG 20/16 and was CBing quite regularly, maybe a bit too much

Villain was running at 26/16, pretty aggressive, didn't fold to CB 0/3 on the flop when IP, on the few hands I had on him his WWSF was 60% and his W$SD also 60% and I didn't get any other reads before this hand

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
SB ($94.95)
BB ($50)
UTG ($58.25)
UTG+1 ($68.65)
Hero ($81.50)
BTN ($52.05)

Dealt to Hero K K

fold, fold, Hero raises to $1.50, BTN calls $1.50, fold, fold

FLOP ($3.75) 9 5 T

Hero bets $1.90, BTN raises to $4.50, Hero calls $2.60

TURN ($12.75) 9 5 T A

Hero checks, BTN bets $8, Hero calls $8

RIVER ($28.75) 9 5 T A 7

Hero checks, BTN bets $17, Hero folds

BTN wins $27.35


I hated calling flop and then guess on later streets but I also hate raising because he is bluffing here so often but if he shoves I have poor equity.

Suggestions? Or do you play it the same?

I think you played it fine. Turn gives you additional equity and he's rarely going to triple barrel bluff after you call that turn card. His range wreaks of sets and flushes, NH.

Call flop, fold turn, 2.5:1 but we only have 8 outs and we're oop and so much of his range doesn't pay us off on the river when we bink. Actually if he's been consistently aggro postflop we might be able to 3bet flop because it's going to be tough to play the rest of the hand OOP.

$11/stackoff on the flop imo

Btw what really bugs me about this hand is how transparent my hand is.. I mean what else do you guys think I should call in this spot? Had I had a FD I would have 3bet or folded, also if I had a set I really don't see my self flatting this board, or should I?

I hate having my range have a cap :/

Suggestions in this regard?

Don't you think I have enough in case he is bluffing with a few combos or is betting a set or two pair?

On a draw-heavy board such as that flop, I'd bet more on the flop. Your sizing on flop is inviting raises, or flats that have decent equity (QJ, KQ, 78, J10). Bet like $3 on the flop, if raised, jam. I honestly think far too many people tend to think everyone has a set all the time. He can have a ton of draws on that flop he is raising with, many of which you have blockers to, including QJ. Not to mention, your sizing invites raises from made hands like A10, if the player wants to prevent you from hitting a flush yourself if he percieves your bet as a blocker.

Bet more on flop, if raised, jam. I mean, sets and 910 are only hands ahead of us, there are tons of flush draws he could be raising with, and you have those beat with an additional club blocker.

He's never betting a set/2pair on a 4th club and he reps flushes pretty well. I don't think we can count on getting paid on a 4th club that much either.

Given his flop raise size set/2pair seems unlikely because he made it so small (usually more often a draw when I've seen players raise small.). So yeah we can prob 3bet flop and stack off here. But then he can't bluff us. Meh.

Is anyone willing to show some math behind your suggestions? And some villain range and my equity speculations?

I'm waiting for a ubbv reg to come in here and say this is a fold

bet more on the flop
fold once raised
as played fold the turn, calling deeper is ok cos we can c/shove some rivers

Cam you're not seriously b/f'ing the flop vs villain here are you (especially when he makes it near min)?
I also assume you mean we can CRAI club rivers which I think is bad

it begins.

im very curious if the other ubbv regs are b/f overpairs readless on wet boards

yes i am.

and no i meant CRAI non club, non pairing rivers i.e. calling this turn deep gives us more river flexibility. im not saying i'd bluffshove everytime, im just saying that option is available to us when we get to the river, whereas here we call and miss and c/f, we bink and it goes shove/fold or check/check. this deep we strangle ourselves in our actually pretty thin equity vs his range by c/c

MY flop equity facing a raise:

Board: 5c 9s Tc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.629% 55.59% 00.04% 20362 15.00 { KcKs }
Hand 1: 44.371% 44.33% 00.04% 16238 15.00 { JJ-99, 55, AcQc, AcJc, ATs, Ac9c, Ac8c, KTs, QJs, Qc9c, Jc9c, T9s, 9c8c, 87s }


My flop equity facing a shove when I 3bet:

Board: 5c 9s Tc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.543% 31.54% 00.00% 5621 0.00 { KcKs }
Hand 1: 68.457% 68.46% 00.00% 12199 0.00 { TT-99, 55, AcQc, AcJc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Qc9c, Jc9c, T9s, 9c8c }

pot if he shoves: 66,8
his bet: 38,05
pot odds: 36,289% which makes it a losing call.


So on the flop I clearly have to call, raising would only be viable if he'd flat with his draws. But I don't think he does, he either folds the bad ones or shoves the good ones and then my call is a losing one. Right?


My turn equity when Ac hits and he bets:

Board: 5c 9s Tc Ac
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 35.714% 35.71% 00.00% 330 0.00 { KcKs }
Hand 1: 64.286% 64.29% 00.00% 594 0.00 { TT-99, 55, ATs, QhJh, QsJs, Qc9c, Jc9c, T9s, 9c8c, 8h7h, 8s7s }

I give him 4 combos of bluffs out of 8 possible and I think that's reasonable and this gives me direct odds to draw.


So if no one objects to my equity and range speculations I'd say my line was ideal except that it's transparent. So I'm still ***** clueless what the most +EV line is.

b/f the flop, limiting future mistakes on numerous difficult turncards that are almost always better for his range than ours, especially when we're OOP. we've no idea of his turn frequencies, and so often we're going to end up lighting money on fire by b/c flop c/f turn, or b/c flop c/c turn c/f river.

if you really think you're going to be exploited by folding such a strong part of your range here you can't be playing vs NL50 villains

Some math and range estimation to back up your argument would be nice..

I don't like calling his raise because he will continue on most turn and rivers and it will be hard for us to c/c 2 more streets. Imo this is either B/3bet or B/F. STD would be B/F, B/3bet when u have a read villain is capable of doing this wide.

you can fold flop you know

you're going to be guessing on turn and river all the time, and there's going to be a lot of turns he'll fire on

KK is essentially same as TP here, though we have better equity against his combodraws

you're flop range estimation looks reasonable

the math is impossible because as i said we have no idea of his frequencies. like if we knew he's barrelling flush draws 100% on blank turns then we could probably formulate an argument for b/c c/s or something along those lines, but we literally have no idea. you're going into guessing games OOP when our range is super face up and effectively villain can play perfectly vs us if hes compotent

the point im making though is this. nobody knows you're folding KK here, and so you're not going to be exploited for it. in fact, in order to be being exploited by it in the first place villain would have to be raising hands like A7o and KJss otf, which i think its fair to assume an unknown isnt

So essentially what you are suggesting GOONERCAM is that aside from 3betting all of the sets and good FD's I should fold everything on this flop when I get raised in CO vs BTN?

yes, but only readless.

obviously, once we know more about villains, their tendencies and frequencies, our equity vs their range changes massively i.e. vs a postflop nit this is the easiest fold in the world, vs a massive whale we're happy 3bet/getting it in otf. vs an unknown though, our best option is to fold the flop because we've no reason to assume he's going to be exploiting us because he has no idea our continuing range is only sets/2pair/fd's, he probably doesn't expect us to fold KK ever.

you're playing NL50 at the end of the day, its not Phil Ivey on the button.

Can you show me your poker results to add credibility to your advice? I'm sorry I'm just having a really hard time giving up 55% of equity without some substantial evidence even if OOP and likely to face hard decision on the turn.

Cam's poker results are a ****ing train wreck due to him having the emotional control of The Incredible Hulk. That said he is one of the most technically gifted posters in unl and you would do well to listen to his advice instead of being rude.

lol, mate i'm just trying to give you advice, its not a dickwaving contest, i didn't mean it to sound like that

feel free to check out my challenge thread if you want

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...stakes-958742/

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3betting the flop or check jamming the turn isn't terrible either