Villian is not a fish 14/7 with a reasonable 3 bet pre flop %


It's a tough spot, cause he probably would've 4 bet/shove aces preflop, but who knows - maybe he's trapping, it might be as well a set. I don't feel like paying 200BB to find out. I would probably call with 100BB though.

What do you guys think - bad fold?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) by Hand Converter CG

UTG ($104.10)
Hero ($115.10)
CO ($17.05)
Button ($58.40)
SB ($79.80)
BB ($47.25)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K:h:, K:c:.
UTG raises to $2, Hero raises to $6.5, 4 folds, UTG calls $4.50.

Flop: ($13.75) 4:s:, 6:d:, 3:d: (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $11, UTG raises to $97.6, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $122.35

You are aware he'll play QQ, JJ and even possibly TT like this? Don't exclude AKdd here, either. Running 14/7 it's unlikely he calls a 3bet with 44, 66 or 33. You are ahead way more often than behind. Snapcall.

I don't hate this fold 200bb deep, what I hate is you saying you "probably" call 100bb deep, it's a snap-call 100bb deep.

He's such a nit, fun spot.

I don't ''hate'' this fold 200bb deep either. All I'm saying is the amount of tags pulling off only calling with aces PF in that spot then shoving flop is very limited. Most tags at this level WILL 4bet AA, especially this deep. I think we see Queens here way more often than Aces.

I have no problem with a fold here. He should suspect you have an overpair, but he's still willing to bet big. You can find a better spot to get your money in.

I really think there are only two possibilities here against a decent player..either you are absolutely crushed vs a set or AA, or he has a draw like AQdd or similar. 100BB easy call. But 200BB, I'm not liking my chances and fold.

i agree. call. set unlikely, since u reraised big, and calling oop with 66, 44 or 33. no, not this villain, if he's solid. if ur beat then its aces. but he would play as mentioned before QQ, JJ, TT, and perhaps even 99 the same way. besides AKd would push this spot,too. call and be coolered if he has the bullets.

Aces would be all-in with you preflop after you 3bet, atleast played by a 14/7. I don't see why we couldn't be up against 66, 44 or 33, although overpairs are more likely. It's a pretty insane move for him to push with a flushdraw here, unless he really doesn't put you on a hand.

As you say, too deep to find out, good fold imo

oh man folding here is so bad...AA and a set is never c/shoving as a huge overbet. This is MUCH more likely to be a draw or TT-QQ.

Keep in mind nits like this always overvalue overpairs because that's how they make most of their money.

It's a sick spot. I honestly have no clue. I'm leaning towards a call because as I said we see QQ here waaay more often than AA, but in the heat of the moment I might have folded it, it's so deep.

He can DEFINITELY have a set with how deep they are, his PF call is definitely possible with 44 33 etc. I kinda like a fold here. 100bb deep snap call obv

What I keep coming back to is why would a tight player c/r 200BBs with something like TT-QQ? Wouldn't it make more sense to exercise some pot control or at least make a raise to only $40 or something to accomplish the same purpose but allow him to get away when crushed?

+1, only reasons I can think of for a shove are the nuts/close nuts, tilt, or hero's table image. They're all pretty close imo but again, with these stacks you probably save a lot of money by folding most of the time.

Villian showed AdKd...How many % are we favourite? Coin flip?
I really hate these spots, been losing alot to sets lately.

This deep I don't mind a fold here either, with the deep stacks he could call this preflop with 66, 44, 33. The real question is would he raise those hands UTG though. I don't put him on AA here that often a 14/7 4bets most times.

His line kind of does look like an overpair, not trying to let the flush get there maybe 55 but I really doubt that. Of course it could also be an overbet shove for value with a set as he could well have you on an overpair with the preflop action and figures with JJ+ you'll call this.

AdKd, AdQd, AdJd are the only other hand that really makes sense here. If you have been pushing him around a bit maybe he'd play it that way.

Stove says this range JJ+,66,44-33,AdKd,AdQd,AdJd has 54% equity here, but obviously if we discount the low PP's KK is huge favorite.

Had you seen him play low PP's from UTG before this at all? Push draws? Have you been pushing him around before this?

Any history w/ villian? your image? I probably wouldnt consider a 14/7 "good". Most guys like this are huge nitfish.

But id probably call here. Even if villian only does this w/ QQ+ we have good equity.

Vs the draw we're basically a coinflip 53%.

He's not good, but he's not total donk, so he has an idea what he's doing. I don't really have that much history with villian - so anything is possible.

about a coinflip but your equity is obv good to call against this hand...

im so suprised so many ppl wanta fold here...are you guys playin w/ scared money or what? From my expereince this guy over value overpairs here like always (when i say nit kinda just talkn about pf play). CRAI here 200BB deep is kinda scary but IMO just seems really fishy. Obv its not the greatest spot but I think a call is goot.

Meh i doubt that you are going to be profitable in the long run in these kind of spots. 200bb push with JJ, after I 3 bet and then bet pot? I don't think so

folding here is really bad. When a player plays 14/7 over a broad sample this means several things. First, it means that the majority of his money (assuming he makes money) is made from his strong hands, as his attempts to steal/3bet/iso raise aren't very high given his preflop stats. This means that when he does get a strong preflop hand (99+, AK, AQ for example), he has to maximize the value he gains from those hands. This means that he needs to, at least to an extent, overplay those hands for value.

Another reason is that, since he's only playing 14% of his hands, he'll be reluctant to fold. If you think of it in his mindset, he's thinking, ok, I have JJ. I'm not getting another good hand for a while, so I'm definately not folding this, regardless of the fact that it's a distinct possibility I'm beat.

Like bevil said, a 14/7 by no means is good or rational. He's nitty, and nits overplay their hands.

This is the answer here. And if 14/7 is accurate, everybody's ranges ITT are FOS. This is never a set because 14/7 doesn't raise his little pairs UTG. This is TT+, and most often AQ+dd or AA here.

well from villain's pov, if you're gonna punt 200BB into the middle, this about the only hand that makes even scant amounts of sense to do it with. Hero's range hits the flop only very very rarely, Villain is ahead of everything except KK and AA, which are less likely because villain holds one of each. Even then, he's got nearly 40% equity against AA. Also, he'd much rather get it all in on the flop, when his equity is decent rather than make a big raise, get flatted and the whiff the turn.

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Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

990 games 0.005 secs 198,000 games/sec

Board: 3d 6d 4s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.273% 36.36% 00.91% 360 9.00 { AdKd }
Hand 1: 62.727% 61.82% 00.91% 612 9.00 { AcAh }