Ongame Network $50.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players

SB: $49.50 - VPIP: 9, PFR: 9, 3B: 8, AF: Infinity, Hands: 78
BB: $31.62 - VPIP: 34, PFR: 8, 3B: 4, AF: 3.3, Hands: 64
UTG: $80.61 - VPIP: 47, PFR: 21, 3B: 12, AF: 2.3, Hands: 47
MP: $51.14 - VPIP: 30, PFR: 21, 3B: 5, AF: 1.1, Hands: 126
CO: $95.82 - VPIP: 16, PFR: 13, 3B: 6, AF: 5.0, Hands: 250
Hero (BTN): $50.00

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BTN with J J
UTG raises to $1.25, MP calls $1.25, CO calls $1.25, Hero raises to $6.50, 4 folds, CO calls $5.25

Flop: ($16.25) 2 A 5 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($16.25) 7 (2 players)
CO bets $8.25, Hero calls $8.25

River: ($32.75) 6 (2 players)
CO bets $81.07, Hero?

villain seems a good reg, vs him only one AI preflop AA vs KK (K on flop btw)

flop I tried to induce, so I check behind rather then b/f since I think he may have some Ax suited like A2s->A5s which he can c/c or c/r and then I have to fold or call flop but fold most of turn/river

Some questions:

1) may he bluff that river or is this a std fold?

2a) do you agree w my line or was better to cbet that flop?

2b) if you cbet flop and get raised what will you do?

ty in advance

i probably cb flop, think its much better than check calling his turn bet

Fold the turn. His range crushes your hand and you would be crazy to turn your hand into a bluff on the river. If river goes check-check, he's still got you beat.

Imo villain would 3-bet JJ+, AQ+ preflop for value. He didn't do that, and so i think his range consists of somthing like 77-TT (maybe some lower PPs too) and maybe some suited broadway hands.

Checking back the flop is fine IP imo, when you think that he would fold anything you beat when you bet now, but he calls a street later in the hand.

When he donks the turn i think his range is polarized, i don't expect him to bet a hand like 99 or TT, calling is fine.

His shove on the river is a bit strange, your hand looks weak and like you can never call a shove after checking back the flop, so why should he do that with a value hand? I think a hero-call wouldn't be that bad, but I'm not exactly sure...

river is a fold, because of the pot odds, he'd need to bluff with every combo of 44,33 and 88 for you to make a barely +EV call if he only shoves sets which I believe is not the only hands that he shoves and beat you

turn is trickier, especially how agro he is. I think if I didn't have recent history of him flatting 3bets super wide and then being very creative postflop and him seeing that I can take this exact same line with AA,AK,AQ and AJ I think he will almost never give up on the river and we should fold

I'd probably call in this spot with AK,AQ,AJ w/o history OTT and then fold the river, and if he kept trying to push me off me hands I'd adjust and start calling

of course I'd always call with AA

but hey don't listen to me, I'm a breakeven lolreg

I think you can call turn because we shouldn't be giving a 16/11 enough credit to be able to turn a weak pp into a bluff on the river - so he either checks back river with anything we are beating or vbets again with AQ or any sets he mined.

I think his PF range is weighted towards pairs quite a bit. I like valuebetting flop. Good chance we get a call from 33/44 with the gutter and 66/TT because he feels we'd cbet this always.
Unfortunately a 16/13 is also fairly likely to have a lot of AQ and AK in his range after PF

As played turn is mehish, I think he may lead enough of his not really strong hands (33,44,66) so that we can't fold. On the river I happily tell myself "oh so he has 66 exactly" and fold. He'd need to bluff a ton to make this a profitable call which nits simply don't. I'd be very surprised if he shoved AQ or AK like this (doesn't really matter to us just an observation).

I think valuebet flop, checkback turn, soulread river is best...probably fold to a lead and tbh I think I check back if checked to simply because I don't expect to get called enough to have a profitable valuebet.

3bet for value against UTG and MP seems good flatting to setmine (with JJ lolwat) isn't horrible either.