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NL50: JJ in 3b pot against unknown NL50: JJ in 3b pot against unknown

03-29-2011 , 02:58 PM
Villain is 11/9 over 35 hands hasn't 3bet so far. No reads.
Not sure if preflop is optimal. First I wanted to get it in, but then I thought that he seems nitty so I just call. My question is, if I think that I cannot get this in profitably not only because he's not 4betting wide enough but he's not bluffing that much then I should probably just fold right? But we cannot say after 35 hands that he's a nit, because he probably doesn't play 11/9, there are not many people in the population that play this tight. So I think we should just treat him as an uknown tag player and 4b/c. Flat calling is good when we think he's bluffing so much that we "lose value" by 4bing. But if we call we can get into tough situations as we are OOP especially that we have no reads on his postflop tendencies.
Anyway flop is prob standard, on the turn I am not sure how often he is bluffing but if he is betting AhXx then jamming is optimal? I thought to myself that we have still quite a bit behind and not sure if he's bluffing enough(although I guess if I think he's not bluffing too much then I should prob fold, right? or does the Jh make it a call?). Anyway on this river I thought that there's no way he's bluffing I rep mostly a FH and no one in their right mind tries to bluff a FH so I fold.



    Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #8587912

    Hero (CO): $63.10 (126.2 bb)
    BTN: $66.35 (132.7 bb)
    SB: $23.60 (47.2 bb)
    BB: $56.70 (113.4 bb)
    MP: $50 (100 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is CO with J J
    MP folds, Hero raises to $1.50, BTN raises to $5, 2 folds, Hero calls $3.50

    Flop: ($10.75) 8 8 5 (2 players)
    Hero checks, BTN bets $7.15, Hero calls $7.15

    Turn: ($25.05) 2 (2 players)
    Hero checks, BTN bets $16.65, Hero calls $16.65

    River: ($58.35) 8 (2 players)
    Hero checks, BTN bets $37.55 and is all-in, Hero folds




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    NL50: JJ in 3b pot against unknown Quote
    03-29-2011 , 03:36 PM
    I think you have to play this 1 of 3 ways:

    1.
    As played.

    2.
    play JJ as a bluff catcher and check call him down. If we think his range is TT+, AQ+ we have 55.5% equity. This play really only makes money if we assume he's river bluffing his overs. Given that we really have no idea on this I would not advocate this.

    3.
    Play a small check raise on the flop and make it about 30. May fold out his overs, but really only gets called by better hands. Also it doesn't really save you any money vs c/c turn and c/f river.

    This is a really tough spot. I'd be interested to hear what others think. I believe its a toss up between 1 and 2. I probably bluff catch and regret it on the river.

    Any thoughts to 4betting pre? It seems like it saves us a bunch of money by allowing us to get away from the hand when he calls/raises.
    NL50: JJ in 3b pot against unknown Quote
    03-29-2011 , 05:32 PM
    its a standart c/c flop and c/f turn

    villain is more likely checking back OTT with overs+flush draw, but would bet made flush and all overpairs.
    If he has an overpair+fd you are almost dead, if he has flush(with AQ,AJ,AK,KQ for example) you have just a few outs and if he has overcards+fd he has more than 10 outs
    So it's rly ez fold OTT.
    NL50: JJ in 3b pot against unknown Quote
    03-30-2011 , 02:04 AM
    sample size too small

    4b this CO v BTN and get it in
    NL50: JJ in 3b pot against unknown Quote
    03-30-2011 , 02:45 AM
    i call pre, call flop and c/f turn.

    nits are nits and once they bet, bet, bet they always have it.
    NL50: JJ in 3b pot against unknown Quote
    03-30-2011 , 03:09 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dwayne Wade
    sample size too small

    4b this CO v BTN and get it in
    You really want to 4b this 126 bb's deep vs unknown player that is probably leaning towards tightish?

    best case scenario he 3b 88+,ATs+,KJs+,AJo+,KQo, and is getting it in with JJ+,AQs+,AKo

    This means he's folding no more than 64%, and we're a 38.4% dog when it does get all in.

    .64*7.25+.36(.384*63-.616*61.6)=-0.31

    Considering the range could be significantly tighter, and that the times you do win in showdown you have to pay the rake I believe that pushing is clearly -EV.

    BTW the rake makes pushing this range -1.18
    NL50: JJ in 3b pot against unknown Quote
    03-30-2011 , 07:35 AM
    c/f turn he's prob taking a free card with Ah or Kh
    NL50: JJ in 3b pot against unknown Quote
    03-30-2011 , 08:14 AM
    You are good pretty much never OTR from my experience.
    NL50: JJ in 3b pot against unknown Quote
    03-30-2011 , 09:23 AM
    Fold pre till you know better at 50nl against someone who seems tightish oop
    NL50: JJ in 3b pot against unknown Quote
    03-30-2011 , 10:28 AM
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by CCM
    Fold pre till you know better at 50nl against someone who seems tightish oop
    this
    NL50: JJ in 3b pot against unknown Quote

          
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