Villain is 41/15/1.1 over 50ish hands. No other reads other than he is obv. in too many pots. He doesn't seem to be a huge station though as his stack as been fairly steady. Initial limper is 43/14/2.9.

I think most PPs call flop here, but bet is mandatory with NFD and the fact that their calling ranges are way wider than PPs.

So who bets turn, and who checks?

A bet is good against flush draws. I don't like a bet against the other parts of his range - a slowplayed T, or a worse PP that may pay off a bet on the river.


$50 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

BTN: $58.32
SB: $92.20
BB: $72.27
UTG: $30.10
Hero (CO): $68.40

Pre Flop: Hero is CO with A 8
UTG calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.50, 2 folds, BB calls $2, UTG calls $2

Flop: ($7.75) T T 3 (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $5.15, BB calls $5.15, UTG folds

Turn: ($18.05) A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero???

Hmmmm.

Both b/f turn with the intention of checking back a blank river and checking the turn back with the intention of calling or betting blank rivers lose 1 additional street of value to a Tx.

Betting the turn gains 1 street of value vs. flush draws on blank rivers and stacks flush draws on about 1 out of 6 rivers. Checking back the turn gets nothing against flush draws on 5/6 rivers and stacks flush draws on 1/6 rivers.

Betting the turn probably folds out most PPs. It potentially gets 1 street of value on the river.

So the main difference is that you gain 1 street of value from PPs on some rivers by checking. Probably not every or J+ river. You gain one street from flush draws that miss by betting.

Based on this I'd b/f.

Thanks Coco. Good answer. Obvoiusly whether to b/c or b/f the turn depends on odds if he raises.

Another small point is that he's much more likely to bluff the river with a busted FD if I check the turn.

Yah fwiw I originally looked at 1.1 agg and thought "passive and probably won't bluff missed draws", but 41/15s do weird and random things so that definitely factors in.

But is (% of time FD misses)[(the % that he calls the turn with a flush draw) - (the % that he bluffs the river with a missed draw)] < (the % of the time we get value from a PP on the river) - (the % of the time we get value from a PP on the turn) ?

Hmm that's complicated.

What is our line if we bet turn and it is called and bet on the river, is this also a fold?

I'd bet and then if checked to again probably v-bet a river.