I sat down, and Villain had $360 in front of him. He is super loose and splashes around. He's crazy monkey aggro postflop, and seems to bluff a ton. Before this pot, he played these hands (all in order of time and stuff), over a period of maybe 50 - 100 hands.

http://weaktight.com/554767
http://weaktight.com/554768
http://weaktight.com/554769
http://weaktight.com/554771
http://weaktight.com/554772

He's on monkey tilt.



$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($85.65)
Hero (UTG+1) ($160.00)
CO ($29.95)
BTN ($50.00)
SB ($73.80)
BB ($212.65)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 6 players) Hero is UTG+1 8 6
1 fold, Hero raises to $2, CO calls $2, 2 folds, BB calls $1.50

Flop: Q 5 K ($6.25, 3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $4, CO folds, BB raises to $12, Hero calls $8

Turn: 9 ($30.25, 2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: K ($30.25, 2 players)
BB bets $24.50, Hero ...


His line doesn't make sense for anything, I guess? How do we maximize against trips? How do we maximize against bluffs? Are we willing to raise and call a shove? What, what, whaaaaat? Please do think about future spots vs. this villain as well.

Give me some feedback.

Did your heads asplode, 2+2?

His line makes sense for a bigger flush imo kq also isn't too improbable. Yeah he's a nutjob and all but he has a hand some of the time.

Gets messy if he shoves over your reraise. He may shove trips to be fair but he'll shove a lot of better hands too. Looks like he just overvalues medium hands. Trouble is... all you have here is a medium strength hand.

I'd just flat here.

I would raise. Probably around $65. I would fold if he 3bet jammed. I don't think raise/folding is spew because he's calling with trips and he's shoving with higher flushes/boats.

It would kind of suck if he tilt-shoves though, don't you agree? Like, my hand is way ahead of his range, and it will be way ahead of his calling range. It'll probably be ahead of his shoving range as well, and that's kind of a problem.

if you think you are ahead of his range i would raise call pretty big, $80ish, because i dont ever think this villian every v bets then folds

i think his line fits a ton of Kx hands and JT even, also bigger FDs on the flop but a boat seems unlikely

i dont even hate shoving vs this villian

I call there.

Would he really check trips on the turn with draws on board? He could have a stronger flush but he could just as easily have a K. There isnt a lot else but a bluff could be in his range.

None of this is comforting, of course, but against a really loose range you're an expected favorite:

97 games 0.005 secs 19,400 games/sec

Board: Qc 5c Ks 9h Kc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.887% 62.89% 00.00% 61 0.00 { 8c6c }
Hand 1: 37.113% 37.11% 00.00% 36 0.00 { JJ+, 99, 55, AKs, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KJs+, K9s, K5s, Q9s, Q5s, JTs, AKo, KJo+, K9o, K5o, Q9o, Q5o, JTo }

Unfortunately the river bet could either be a big value bet or a smaller than pot bluff. If you remove the bottom end of this range above, you drop all the one pairs and you get a reduced but still overwhelming favorite. However I think the key to this hand is the river king. He's not afraid of it and he has to assume your range includes AK, so we should narrow his range to eliminate anything that doesn't fear the King, which leaves:

66 games 0.005 secs 13,200 games/sec

Board: Qc 5c Ks 9h Kc
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.970% 46.97% 00.00% 31 0.00 { 8c6c }
Hand 1: 53.030% 53.03% 00.00% 35 0.00 { QQ, 99, 55, AKs, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KJs+, K9s, K5s, JTs, AKo, KJo+, K9o, K5o, JTo }


(I kept the King-high straight in there, JT, for good measure.)

Now it's about dead even, and I can't see your shove making a lot of sense. If he calls you lose half the time against this range. If you raise and he three bets you, he's given you information that suggests you should fold the hand, but you're probably too far gone to do that.

Don't you play poker smart so you can get your money in with overwhelming odds? Even tilty players catch good cards sometimes. Flatcall and live to fight another day. If he's truly on monkey tilt and shows you something you failed to value bet, you'll get another chance.

Yeah I have to agree with this.

I posted the hand on my blog and went through my thought process there. Here's what I posted on the blog.



Thinking this hand through and talking to a couple of friends about it, we touched on a couple of key points in this hand. The first thing to notice is that we're super deep vs. villain, and there's basically room for me to raise the river and have him shove over me for what will almost be a pot sized bet. Anyways, here's what I thought of before making the call. I did hit the time button and tanked for about 30 seconds or so with this decision.

Using the REM process introduced in Professional No-limit Hold 'em, it basically tells me to raise this river. My equity vs. villain's calling range is pretty good. I'm not an expert on the math, but I expect him to have a ton of bluffs, any flush, any king, any full house a straight. His range is basically super wide, and I probably am about 4-1 favorite vs. that range. I'm also pretty sure I am about 2-1 favorite vs. his calling range. The way to maximize against his range, is basically just raise/folding for value. However, he has shown quite a propensity to splash around, and I don't know whether or not he's capable of shoving the river as a bluff? It's kind of meh. Given how splashy he is, I could raise/call, but that would be sick high variance. However, I'm 300 BBs deep against a guy that splashes around and I have a clear edge, especially with position on him. I'd hate to be the guy that doubles him up.

So, I decided to call here. I'm not maximizing my value, and I'm taking sort of a weak line. Here's my reasoning, in short.
1) We're really deep
2) It would suck to lose the value of a having a monster stack vs. villain in the event that I do stack off and he has me beat. I'd rather not lose the monster stack vs. him in a value spot as thin as this.
3) He's shown a tendency to splash around, but he might not be capable of bluff-shoving the river. This unclarity makes me more uncertain about my hand.
4) His hand doesn't make sense for a ton of stuff, but he probably has no clue of what he's doing regardless of his holding. If he showed up with 55 here, I wouldn't be surprised, nor would I if he had AK.

So yeah, I'm a weak tight nit and I called.

Stacksizes are gross. You'd much rather have $100 here so you can jam for value. Considering villains massive tilt, calling his reshove here could be +EV, or atleast close to neutral though. You'll be a dog but you'll be getting some serious pot-odds. I think when you raise, you're ahead of his callingrange, and when he shoves, you're atleast getting the odds to call if your valueraise is big enough. So raising is definatly +EV. If you're folding to a shove though, considering your raise is already somewhat thin if villain never bluffshoves, it can get neutral or even -EV.

A thing to consider though, like you posted in your blog, is that your seat at this table being deep with villain is insanely profitable, and if stacks go in here, regardless of the outcome, the value of your seat will drasticly decrease, as effective stacksizes will go down and you might tilt if you lose. Therefore I think this is a good spot to pass up on some immediate EV to preserve the value of your seat, winning the lost EV back in future spots.

I think you've answered your own post. You decided to pass up an edge in the hope of a bigger edge later on. This isn't terrible if you think losing the pot will significantly damage your happiness EV.

i think anything but a call here is pretty bad...