Quote:
we have sdv on dry flop so ck/c and depending on his barreling tendencies/turn cards ck/c ott too
If we give him 80% of hands preflop and he still has the same 80% after he cbets then our equity against his range is 50% on the flop. I just did a quick stove and half of his range here has no pair. Thus, unless our opponent is going to float us a ton (which is hard for a fish to do on that board), we should expect folds enough of the time that we expect to break even on our raise. Now we are free rolling with ~19% equity and we can have a clear plan to follow up on some turn cards (IE diamonds, 5, maybe 10+, or check decide on a 7 and certainly an A). Maybe you can get him to fold out his 4s and 6s or lower pocket pair hands on the turn.
The cost of this, then, is that we immediately about break even (we risk 6 to win 5, air makes up about enough of his range that we expect about this many folds). This is giving ourselves slightly worse immediate odds than the check call play (since we risk 2 to win 5 with 50% equity). But what are some of the advantages? Well first of all all of his "air" hands still had 30% equity versus our A high, and we protect against that. We also negate our positional disadvantage and start making him guess with mostly marginal hands (based on his cbet %) instead of us doing the guessing with our very marginal hand. We also help our image for the future when we have a set or two pair or whatever else here and want to get a lot of action - it will improve our image for other spots as well. Also, the times we do get a backdoor something - after he called the flop and turn - we can be pretty confident that he has a Qx at this point and our implied odds are going to be quite good.
I think both lines are good/fine here. However, against a fish that 1: cbets too often 2: likely isn't going to 3 bet bluff the flop almost ever and 3: doesn't realize that we rep pretty much nothing, I'd argue that the check raise line is slightly more optimal, even with a decent ace high hand. I like your line a whole lot more if we had, say, A9o here because our free roll equity is now a decently worse 15% and we don't really have any plan on future cards.
Also, OP's line obviously sucks if the fish is known to just jam pairs on the turn or floats crazy wide (though this isn't a big disaster... just fire more turns than I mentioned above), and so on... but most fish are not doing these things.
Finally I should mention that the best way to counter a guy who is cbetting too often is to start check raising him a lot and with a balanced range. IE: Most of your flop continuing range should be a check raise instead... there is now just that much more dead money in the pot while ranges are still super wide. Just floating a lot is certainly *not* a good way to counter a guy who cbets a ton (at least in my mind).
Last edited by Kardnel; 03-20-2011 at 11:25 AM.