Villain just joined the table and plays his first hand. No statistics on him.

Do you like this donkbet on the flop? If called, what would be your plan for the turn?


I think I made a bad play here. Let's assume that the villain 3bets me here with AA-QQ and AK. Given that this is his first hand, I'd assign relatively high percentage to bluffs - let's say, 10% of his hands. Then he would have

12 AK
6 KK
1 QQ
3 AA
2 bluffs

Donkbet should force a fold from KK, QQ and most of the bluffs, as I credibly rep AK here. So I get 9 folds out of 24 hands, and my play is about break-even, as I put 7 to win 9.



Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

CO: $68.20
BTN: $51.25
SB: $53.95
BB: $89.35
Hero (UTG): $152.70
UTG+1: $49.50
UTG+2: $43.75
MP1: $81.75
MP2: $33.10

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG with Q Q
Hero raises to $1.50, UTG+1 raises to $4.50, 7 folds, Hero calls $3

Flop: ($9.75) 6 A 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $7, UTG+1 folds

I don't mind this line.

Obvious fold if he comes over the top and if he flats you can just shut down unless you hit a Q on the turn. The A on the board makes it less likely he has AA/AK.

I dont like this line.

I like Baluga's thinking.

3 reasons for betting
1) most important - for value - we believe we have the best hand and worse hands can call
2) We fold out better hands
3) We are collecting dead money

So does this meet any of that criteria

1) we are likely not in front of villians 3-bet range with ace on board

2) there is only one likely holding that beats us that is folding to this bet...KK

3) 3-bet pots not likely to be a good spot to collect dead money with a donk bet


Therefore.

We can assume villians calling range is stronger than his betting range. Meaning, that villian can c-bet all sorts of PPs and randomised bluff SCs that make up the funky part of his 3-betting range.

As such donking is probably less profitable than a check raise. As we capture an extra bet from the times villian bets hands we beat + it increases the possibility of him folding out a better hand. But you should be very careful about not to turning this into a multi-street spew.


Cheers Dog

P.S. DC is the nuts

Agreed. You're basically betting that he has exactly KK.

DiggertheDog,

I like your reasoning, but I just don't feel comfortable check-raising here. At NL50, it's less likely that he has sc or small pair to increase our fold equity. He's never folding AK to the check-raise.

The problem with check raise is that it looks like a bluff it is. We can't represent sets, and we obv. can't represent a strong draw, like AK spades.

What I like about donkbet here is that we're basically claiming to have AK and the villain knows he will not be able to make us fold it. Coming over the top would require third-level thinking that is hard to find at these stakes.

Maybe a more sophisticated line would be to represent AK by check calling the flop and stealing on the turn or river if villain shows weakness.

I can't believe anyone with KK here lets you off so easy.

c/c is an interesting line. I don't see the villain firing the turn again unless he has an A. A crai is definitely a decent line and probably does maximize your FE.

This is a really tough spot.