Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
I'm lost on what to do on this turn. I basically have no read and little stats on villain. I have him at 20/0/0, and that is only after like 12 hands. So no read whatsoever.

I generally find that when people overcall a 3bet like that, they usually have like AK or AQ. I guess he could have QQ-AA, but why would he just call with AA or KK when he doesn't know me either? So QQ sounds likely.

Also, I'm probably a little less than even money against AKs or AQs here in this spot. So I lean towards folding.

I don't see anything wrong with the way I played the hand up until the decision.

What do you all think, call or fold?



The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: $35.40
BB: $64.50
UTG: $51.95
UTG+1: $71.90
MP1: $121.85
Hero (MP2): $63.05
CO: $49.25
BTN: $48.55

Pre Flop: Hero is MP2 with J J
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $2, 1 fold, Hero raises to $7.25, 1 fold, BTN calls $7.25, 3 folds

Flop: ($17.25) 3 7 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $12, BTN raises to $41.30 all in, Hero??????

Seems like an easy fold to me.

I'd think that QQ-AA playing this way are far more likely than him showing up with the same type of hands we dominate, 88-TT (and if he can have 88 why not 77/44/33). We're basically flipping against his most likely semi-bluffing range.

That's what I figured also. At best we are flipping against AKs, AQs. But how often do you think some people might actually show up here with TT or 99?

Very often.. but with no reads it's a good fold.

Really hard to know with so few hands with the villian. Some call those types of pairs for "set value" and give up if they miss. Others might not. I just think it's less likely you'll see 99/TT here than you'll see a slower played QQ/KK/AA.

Also, I think we can really consider flatting JJ here against the EP raise rather than 3-betting.

yeh, fold unless villain was 90/50/4 or something similar.

you're either way behind or slightly behind (AKcc/AQcc)

I agree with the flatting of JJ, and also when button, and not UTG, calls the 3bet, you have to be wary as the range of hands he SHOULD have here is pretty damn strong.

It's 29 for us to call and the pot is 70 bucks. 2.33:1 we only need to be good here 41% of the time to break even. If you guys say that we're a coin flip...isn't this an easy call?

We're calling $29.30 to win $70.55 here, so getting ~2.4:1 on our money.

Against his range (thoughts on my prescribed range?)

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,061,693 games 19.348 secs 54,873 games/sec

Board: 3s 4c 7c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.272% 39.02% 02.07% 414245 21990.50 { JcJs }
Hand 1: 62.728% 67.08% 02.07% 712197 21990.50 { 99+, 77, 44-33, AcKc, AcQc }

We have 37.2% equity against his range so we only need 1.69 to call...looks like a call to me if this range is good. Feedback much appreciated, I'm working on my PokerStove skills.

I agree that flatting also is a good option, but the UTG+1 raiser was a weak player that I knew running like 9/7/5 after like 200 hands. So I just felt I could continue to 3bet him and generally outplay him unless he 4bets me.

jawal, as far as your stove on this hand, your range is exactly what I would have. I just question adding 99, TT, or possibly 88 in there. I'm just not sure how often villain is showing up with those hands. If you add those hands into his range, then yes, it is probably a call. But I just don't know if you can add those hands.