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NL50: bad play or just negative side of variance? NL50: bad play or just negative side of variance?

10-12-2008 , 03:49 PM
villain is 22/20/1.3. With AQ in the SB I thought this would be a nice time for a squeeze play. On the flop I make a c-bet and I turn a straight and nut flush draw, with 2 overs, so I shove.

Is this hand totally standard or did I just play this way too fast? Should I have check-folded the flop? I can't figure out if I played it bad or if I just got unlucky.

I'm fairly sure the turn is standard: even if I only have the straight + flush outs, I still have 25% equity, meaning I hardly need any fold equity for the shove to be profitable.


$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
iPoker
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($49.75)
UTG 1 ($40.85)
CO ($56.35)
BTN ($70.75)
Hero ($50.00)
BB ($25.08)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 6 players) Hero is SB A Q
2 folds, CO raises to $2, BTN calls $2, Hero raises to $9, 1 fold, CO calls $7, BTN folds

Flop: 2 T 4 ($20.75, 2 players)
Hero bets $13, CO calls $13

Turn: 5 ($46.75, 2 players)
Hero bets $28, CO calls $28

River: K ($102.75, 2 players)

Final Pot: $99.50
NL50: bad play or just negative side of variance? Quote
10-12-2008 , 03:54 PM
I think you played it fine - the turn shove is villain dependent but it seems fine to me...
NL50: bad play or just negative side of variance? Quote
10-12-2008 , 04:33 PM
yeah i think its fine... kind of spewy but pretty standard imo, he folds pf, flop, and turn a bunch.
NL50: bad play or just negative side of variance? Quote
10-12-2008 , 04:40 PM
I strongly have to disagree here. If I calculated it correctly I need about 5% fold equity (which I easily have!) for the shove to be profitable, if I only have 12 outs. Given this, I don't see how I could play the turn any differently. What line would you take then?
NL50: bad play or just negative side of variance? Quote
10-12-2008 , 05:17 PM
This seems very standard. You shove your made hands and AK/AQ with a diamond here so if he called like JJ he's getting it in behind.
NL50: bad play or just negative side of variance? Quote
10-12-2008 , 05:17 PM
looks pretty spewy to me
NL50: bad play or just negative side of variance? Quote
10-12-2008 , 05:32 PM
If you bet that flop, you have to shove the turn, so that part is standard. I think the squeeze is fine. The question i guess is, should you fire the flop. I don't see any way around it but i have a feeling his whole range is calling on that board if he's any good. If he's bad, then i think a stronger cbet would be better, you ahve to get ak to lay down. Other than that, i don't know what the bet does for you.
NL50: bad play or just negative side of variance? Quote
10-12-2008 , 05:36 PM
If you think he is checking back the turn (he may well do considering his af of 1.3 and the way the hand has played) then i much prefer a check on the turn as it allows you to c/f if you want on the river if you miss...
NL50: bad play or just negative side of variance? Quote
10-12-2008 , 07:34 PM
I wouldn't show results since you'll get a skewed response. I don't mind this, I think the squeeze pre-flop is good and I like the fact your willing to get it in. The thing I would mainly change here is your bet sizing. On the turn you have so little FE because the villain is getting close to 3:1 on a call. If he has something like 99/88/AT, he'll think screw it I'm getting good odds - I'll call.

If on the flop you bet $8 he's still calling with the same range, I really don't think you get extra folds out of 99-66 by betting an extra $5. On the turn you'll have a PSB left, so he'll be calling $35 and getting 2:1 instead of calling $28 and getting 2.7:1.

So in the end I'd bet $8 on the flop and shove any A/K/Q/ turn. You'll also save money when you c/f the turn.
NL50: bad play or just negative side of variance? Quote
10-12-2008 , 07:36 PM
good flop to c-bet, and you get a magical turn. better question is y wouldnt i shove here against a 22/20
NL50: bad play or just negative side of variance? Quote
10-12-2008 , 07:45 PM
PF: Fine, AQo multiway sucks
Flop: I just check here, his CCing range is narrow, and I dont think youll get him folding much.
Turn: As played shove is good
NL50: bad play or just negative side of variance? Quote

      
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