nl50 AK vs db turn
05-10-2011
, 01:35 AM
this player is running 21/18 and folding 60% for 3bet and 50% to c-bet on 3betpot.
i dont see him doing that with less than AK, he range of 3bet call here hit a lot that board, fold is that spot is good?
Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Party
SB ($13.25)
BB ($66.22)
UTG ($94.29)
Hero ($50)
BTN ($54.30)
Dealt to Hero A
K
UTG raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $5, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls $3.50
FLOP ($10.75) K
3 Q
UTG checks, Hero bets $6, UTG calls $6
TURN ($22.75) K 3 Q T
UTG bets $13, Hero ??
i dont see him doing that with less than AK, he range of 3bet call here hit a lot that board, fold is that spot is good?
Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Party
SB ($13.25)
BB ($66.22)
UTG ($94.29)
Hero ($50)
BTN ($54.30)
Dealt to Hero A
K UTG raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $5, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls $3.50
FLOP ($10.75) K
3 Q UTG checks, Hero bets $6, UTG calls $6
TURN ($22.75) K
3 Q T UTG bets $13, Hero ??
05-10-2011
, 01:42 AM
05-10-2011
, 02:30 AM
If we assume for a second that he's never folding (and neither are we after we put any more money in), i.e. we shove or fold turn, we need 39% equity to break even on a shove.
This is a range we have exactly that against:
Now, if we have 39% against his getting it in range, we should shove, because we always have some fold equity.
But the question is if the above range is realistic. If he is check/raising the flop with big draws, it's a fold. If he's capable of showing up here with 33 or even TT, it's a fold. If he can have AA, it's a fold. And I just notice I didn't put AJss in the sim.
Conclusion --> it's almost certainly a fold.
This is a range we have exactly that against:
| ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation |
| 616 trials (Exhaustive) |
| board: K3QT |
| Hand | Pot equity | Wins | Ties |
|---|---|---|---|
| AhKh | 39.37% | 109 | 267 |
| KK, QQ, KQs, AK, AsQs, QsJs, JsTs | 60.63% | 240 | 267 |
Now, if we have 39% against his getting it in range, we should shove, because we always have some fold equity.
But the question is if the above range is realistic. If he is check/raising the flop with big draws, it's a fold. If he's capable of showing up here with 33 or even TT, it's a fold. If he can have AA, it's a fold. And I just notice I didn't put AJss in the sim.
Conclusion --> it's almost certainly a fold.