CO: $127.70
BTN: $54.48
SB: $78.25
BB: $39.25
Hero (UTG): $63.30
MP: $55.10

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG with A A
Hero raises to $2.00, MP calls $2, CO calls $2, BTN calls $2, 1 fold, BB calls $1.50

Flop: ($10.25) J K 3 (5 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $9.00, MP calls $9, CO folds, BTN folds, BB folds

Turn: ($28.25) J (2 players)
Hero....

Villain (MP) is like 50 / 12 / 5 AF over 50 hands. CO like 22 /13 - BTN 33 / 5 - BB 40 / 8. A dream of a table!

The turn will decide, in which way the hand will end.

In my opinion, if I bet the turn, i call any river bet for sure. But i guess, i dont have any other options than c/f or b/c the turn.

I figure out that b/c could be more EV?

b/f would be burned money. c/f is too weak, ARGH, every line looks so terrible.

CRAI on the turn looks better than b/c or b/f for these reasons
1) Villain seems aggro enough to bet str8 draws/Kx hands on the turn
2) Villain's stats show that he will prob. call your CRAI enough of the time with Kx/str8 draw hands
3) if villain checks behind, I'm more inclined to c/c or b/f river since these type of villains love to conceal huge hands like trip jacks

yeah firedisc this is a tough spot.

is it bad that i'm tempted to check/call two streets?

+1

He has 42 left and the pot is 28. I'd bet/fold 16 because he would almost always call with Kx. He could also have a draw that could check behind here. If you think he bets the draws, then definetly c/r this turn.

I would bet a little less on the flop to make the turn bet/fold easier. Bet/fold as played is almost impossible, but bet/calling is about the same EV so i'd go for a bet/fold.

If he calls the turnbet, then push river.

Ok, I bet 18$, villain tanked a while and just called. River blanked.

He either got the nuts with KJ and just thought how he will play it or sits on a single King.

check river for bluff induce?

That J is a really good card for us what are you so worried about?

I like the river check, planning to call any bet. If he was on a draw, he's not calling a bet, and he may bet, trying to steal the pot. He may bet with a king as well, thinking that you were on a draw (he should check, but a lot of really loose players don't follow this logic)

Firedisc

i prob bet flop smidge smaller and bet turn again - we're HU now and i'm loving it's HU.

17 on turn shove all rivers ~ < 1/2 PSB imho

I'm b/cing $16. The reason I'm betting so small is to keep his calling range wider (so he calls w/ Kx almost always). It's WA/WB and we don't have to worry about villain hitting a 2p because we have the nut 2p...

Villain is so bad that I'd just fire 3 streets for value. Against a better lineup of players, I'd probably just check the flop.

uhhhhh the J on the turn is the nuts... bet turn.. bet river... if he raises the turn turbo pump fist snap call... if he has 33 oh well move on

I would give villian a range of something like

AT+, K7+, Q9+ J7+, 88+, T9+, 33

That may be a wide, but his stats suggest he is not the best. Even if we tighten this up quite a bit we are still way ahead of most of his range.

So:

I think your flop bet was too big which is why this turn is feeling a little akward (you haven't left yourself room to make a good size value bet and fold to a raise).

You still have to bet this turn (and I think checking it would be a mistake). As you noted a big bet is going to get you committed. I think betting around $12-14 here would be best (this leaves you enough room to fold if raised and I think you would rarely get raised here by a worse hand). This also has the added benefit of getting called by a significant portion of his range. I would re-evaluate and value bet most rivers as well.

The other route you could go is just to commit and bet $22-25 or so, but I think this isn't as good because you will be stacking off when raised and often a raise will mean a better hand. This has the upside of getting more value out of draws, etc, but I think the times you have to stack off with a worse hand here makes this the less desirable option.

(both are +EV though imo and much better than checking)

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