Villain is 31/17/2.2 over only 65 hands.
Question is, aren't we behind in these spots more often than we're ahead? Board is not overly drawy, only 76 for OESD might be possible but is villain calling with a SC PF here? Villain is rather aggressive, so KK-JJ would be reraised PF here. That leaves out only TT,99 which might only call here but not maybe not raise...Hate these spots and seriously thought about folding this on the turn.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($46.35)
BB ($52.90)
UTG ($55.65)
UTG+1 ($48.45)
Hero ($61)
MP2 ($46.20)
CO ($48.25)
Button ($14.55)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A, A.
2 folds, Hero raises to $2, MP2 calls $2, 4 folds.

Flop: ($4.75) 8, 5, 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $3.5, MP2 calls $3.50.

Turn: ($11.75) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $7, Hero calls $7.

River: ($25.75) K (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $20, Hero ?

I beat him into the pot on the river.

If the numbers 31/17/2.2/65 are at all representative, this guy is way LAG. He floats this flop with T high. There's pretty much a billion hands he can have on the river (including a pair of Kings). This is an insta-call.

Why did you checked the turn? I think turn check triggered the action - he may think his TT/99 are good. Also he playing sets same way and maybe he smelled weakness and decided to bluff. I would bet out this turn to figure out where we are.

As played, I would call the river. You may see TT, 99, JT diamonds, set here.

villain's range is quite wide and you are ahead of a lot of it
value bet turn, value bet river

Cause I'm either WA or WB so no need to bloat the pot here, especially OOP. Plus my feeling told me chances I am behind here are bigger than that I'm still ahead.

What is WA and WB

Way ahead or way behind.

You obviously had some sort of read, so obv. go with that, But, I don't think the stats or the board support that read, they say you should value bet at least the first 2 streets. You look somewhat beat by the river but it's too late to fold when you are getting more than 2:1

I'm not sure about the river, I think I prefer b/f. His AF is not so high that you risk getting blown off the hand with worse. Big pairs will probably call a bet but check behind if allowed to. So, I bet for maybe 15 or so on the river, fold to a push.

pretty poorly played

just bet pot every street.

So should we really go broke with Aces pretty much every time? Even in those spots where he have a pretty certain feeling that we're behind? This is of course only one example and I really ask myself if I'm losing value in spots where villain really turns up here with something like JJ...

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($46.35)
BB ($52.90)
UTG ($55.65)
UTG+1 ($48.45)
Hero ($61)
MP2 ($46.20)
CO ($48.25)
Button ($14.55)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A, A.
2 folds, Hero raises to $2, MP2 calls $2, 4 folds.

Flop: ($4.75) 8, 5, 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $3.5, MP2 calls $3.50.

Turn: ($11.75) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $7, Hero calls $7.

River: ($25.75) K (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $20, Hero calls $20.

Damn converter: MP2 shows 88 (set) and wins the pot

Final Pot: $65.75

just because you are betting every street doesn't necessarily mean you are going to get stacked. If he raises you can evaluate from there.

I think the standard play would be to bet flop and turn, then c/c river. With a board full of medium cards and your read, I c/c turn here too, both for pot control and because I won't be happy if villain raises my turn bet. The king doesn't slow the villain down (which I think rules out a lot of PPs) and the FD came in. IMO, the river is tough and I can't find much fault with either calling or folding. Ugh...

generally speaking, if you aren't getting three streets of value with AA on this board, then there is something pretty srsly wrong with your game.

This only thing that sucks about this river is that we get paid off less by worse hands. We still have practically the nuts vs his river calling range once we bet, and vs his river betting range once we check, so this isn't really a tough spot at all.

What do you have as his calling range on the river given the action so far? (same for his betting range, and maybe moreso, since, IMO 99-QQ would happily check behind).

This is not like my default line with a hand like this but I just don't get it why we should bet every street here when (IMO) villains play looks so much like a [censored] set. He is rather aggressive in general and this line with calling PF, just flatting on the flop is soooo suspicious I think. Honestly, before posting this hand here and reading the replies I was rather pissed that I did not manage to get away from this hand at least on the river.

this is incredibly results oriented thinking

wouldn't you also say that his line looks like a censored set if he'd raised the flop and potted the turn?

Does he always have a set no matter what line he takes?


Truthfully the line most consistent with him flopping a set would be raising the flop. A loose and bad player is going to peel this flop with pretty much any pair, and a lot of overpairs (although he may raise the flop with some of those).

I'm also troubled by your attitude over this hand. Your use of "he had a [censored] set," and "im so pissed i didn't get away from this on the river." These are subtle signs that you are having trouble emotionally handling poker variance, and something you should work on.

Anyway, long story short, when he smoothcalls the flop, you should be putting him on top or middle pair, not a set, and since he's a bad player and will continue to call down with these hands, you should then make a bet on the turn as well. If he raises the turn, then you need to entertain the likelihood that he has a set, but if he just calls again, you should continue and bet big on the river as well, looking to get paid off by top pair.

If there were an A/K/Q on the flop, I think this would definitely be the case and I'd be betting 3 streets for value figuring that a good part of villain's range was TP. On an 8-high flop, I think it's far less likely, We're only really considering A8s, 78s, 98s and 99-QQ (though I think at least JJ/QQ repop us). 78s hits 2 pair on the turn and is probably calling a river bet, whereas 98s and 99-QQ are probably scared off after the Kd hits the river. (Maybe I'm wrong on this last part?)

(Sorry if I'm thread-jacking, but this is a spot I think about a lot.)

Renton,
first let me thank you for your thoughts and replies. I think that we really just have different opinions here, there a lot of bad players out there (especially at NL50) but at NL100, too, that play generally rather aggressive but slow down with strong made hands like sets. Therefore, I was really more concerned that he might have a set here then with this line as if he had just raised the flop, something I think he would've done with like JJ,TT stuff. That he is floating the flop here is of course an option, too.

With what you said about my attitude about this hand, I can assure you that I don't have troubles dealing with variance and stuff. I'm playing poker for quite a while now (LHE and PLO before finally moving to NLHE) and I know how sick this game can be from time to time. Me being upset here was really just because I thought a good player (what I am of course not as just proved) could have gotten away from this hand somewhere but maybe this is just a wrong evaluation on my part.
So, once again, thanks for you help and all the other comments!

BTW: "wouldn't you also say that his line looks like a censored set if he'd raised the flop and potted the turn?"

I honestly think that it would have been much easier for me to commit here if he would've played the hand like this cause I always expect the average/bad players to slowplay their sets. Maybe wrong thinking...

definitely wrong thinking.

Bad players slowplay hands, but when bad players are playing passively, it is overwhelmingly more likely that they have a weak hand than a strong one, EVEN IF THEY SLOWPLAY EVERY SINGLE BIG HAND. It's simply difficult to make big hands, and easy to make weak ones. Standard mathematics.

I bet 4 on flop, 8 on turn, c/c river. If he minraises turn, i'd probly fold and if he shoves turn I probly call. I think your losing massive amouts of value by c/c this down.

im not completely sure yet, but i think bet > c/f > c/c on this river (as opposed to b > c/c > c/f).

either way, im almost certain betting is best. Thoughts?

Hmmm I think betting into the river here commits you to his minraise shove. looking at his river bet sizing, I dont think c/f is too unreasonable here either. I would say that c/c~=c/f > bet.

who cares if he's a donk and calls with plenty?

Also, im not sure you are committed. I think if you are getting worse than like 5:1 pot odds you can probably just fold it, since he really can't be bluffing.

Yea thats my problem with betting here is he cant really be bluffing. I personally am no good at folding when im obviously beat but have commited so much. If you can bet 16ish and fold for 16 more then yes betting is probly the best line.