Villain 21/17/2.7 over 130 hands. Folds BB to steal 50%, folds to cbet 100%. Bets river 33%. This is his first hand at the table.

Call river as played? He's obv repping better than top pair. I doubt he's turning mid PPs into a bluff. Flop is too draw for too many draws trying to semi bluff.

Anybody raise flop or turn for value?

Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: $57.85
BB: $50.00
UTG: $50.00
MP: $122.25
Hero (CO): $50.00
BTN: $35.10

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with A A
2 folds, Hero raises to $1.75, 1 fold, SB calls $1.50, BB calls $1.25

Flop: ($5.25) 5 Q 2 (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets $3.50, Hero calls $3.50, SB folds

Turn: ($12.25) 9 (2 players)
BB bets $7, Hero calls $7

River: ($26.25) K (2 players)
BB bets $16

i'd make it 12ish on flop and get it in

as played id call

Nothing you beat on the flop got there except KQ, so I like a call down as played.

you're hand is way underreped. deff river call...and ummm try raising for value?

this is a really tough spot actually, but I would still make a crying call, I'm guessing he turned over 55 or 22?

+1

Get it in on flop or turn for sure. Call as played.

What's his range here? Are sets a smaller part of his range here because of the bet sizing? 55,22, QJ-AQ, QQ+?

If this is your read its a pretty obvious fold.

The biggest questions you should ask yourself is whether or not villain would take this line with QJ or QT. Being that he looks like a pretty normal TAG, I really doubt he bets worse than Q9 here. You are smoked.

I would call flop and turn, but def muck to river bet.

He's betting every street for value and I don't think he's betting river with anything less than a pair. Any hand like TP would check behind on the river after he sees you call the turn on such a dry board. Given the type of player you describe, he's honestly flipping nothing less than 55 or 22 or possibly KQ to explain that river bet. He also seems to put you on AQ or a hand like that given your PFR and calls on the flop and turn-remember there are no draws on the flop or turn so he's really extracting value from you. Fold.

I'd also call down with this hand as well.

All those that advocate raise/call shove on the flop and get it in...really, what kind of worse holdings are stacking off to us on the flop given that villain is more than competent and is not a drooler. Would calling not induce further bluffs on the turn to which we can easily snap? If he 3 barrels river it's obviously rarely a bluff since not many villains are capable of 3 barreling OOP on such a dry board in the first place.

Our hand is underrepped for sure, but those saying it's a call...you think he fires a King river with AQ / QJ / QT?...c'mon now. It's probably an easier call if the river paired the board or is some kind of undercard. Here his range is rediculously polarized and I dont think folding the top of our calling range once in a while is a mistake.

i was pretty much expecting this response when i wrote my post. I really wanted to see how much people would agree with me for raising the flop. (i am experimenting with this line lately)

We need to raise flop donk to regain initiative anyways.

Raise and get it in on flop or you have to call down all the way. I can't imagine ever folding to that river bet unless you have a good read. Bluffs and missed draws are still in his range. Do you think he donks out with QK or a set?? Doubtful. He prob wants to go in for a check raise on you or slow play it.

initiative is overrated

I´d raise turn for value and get it in there, as played fold river.

of course u raise the damn flop dont even try to talk yourself into weak tighting up AA too dammit. Im raising flop with like my whole range so of course im doing it with AA. Anything else is just more stupid ass weaktightness in this forum and thinking he only continues verse our raise with better than AA is so friggin bad i want to wait till your asleep and have my cat take a **** in your mouth

This.

Raise flop, anything less is extremely weaktight.

Oh and btw
With What hand do you think a competent reg is going to Donk here?
(clue, Board is super dry and no draws!)

Calling to induce barrels is fine. I call 3 times. Raise turn is the worst option imo. Either raise flop or call 3.

If villain takes this line for value with better than AA he's ******ed. He could c/r with perfect relative position, or bet larger on any street and get more value that way. I'd simply not believe him based on line/sizes.

Why is raising turn bad?

Because he's polarized and you fold out the air part of his range. And any hand that will call your turnraise will bet the river itself anyway.

So are you shoving river?(ignore this one)
What is his river value range?

lol

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