Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
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BTN: $50.68 (101.4 bb)
SB: $21.16 (42.3 bb)
BB: $59.88 (119.8 bb)
UTG: $104.05 (208.1 bb)
MP: $19.27 (38.5 bb)
Hero (CO): $70.16 (140.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9 9
UTG raises to $1.25, MP folds, Hero calls $1.25, BTN calls $1.25, 2 folds

Flop: ($4.50) A 9 5 (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($4.50) 4 (3 players)
UTG bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50, BTN calls $2.50

River: ($12) A (3 players)
UTG bets $4, Hero raises to $10.50, BTN folds, UTG raises to $21, Hero raises to ? (current pot : $43.50)

Zoom hand, not many info; at the time, Villain was 19/19/0 (16 hands)

On the spot, I had a strong feeling Villain was checking a good AX on this dry board or at least, one of the 2 villains bet an Ace.
I checked back the flop, hoping button would take a stab and let UTG build the pot, planning to raise a turn barrel and play for stacks.

I probably should have raised the turn.

As played, how should I play the river ?

I thought his raise was like an AK or AQ valueing over a weaker Ax.

I guess his most probable range is ATs+, AJo+ here, but he might very well have AA, 55/44, A5/A4.

Against this range , what is the optimum play here : raise (how much ?) or shove ?

Edit : Also, what is the worst hand that will pay a shove ?

imo when UTG checks you should bet the flop. as played raise turn. as played shove river

He just bet you $4 on the river, you raised it to $10, then he reraises you to $21 and you want to know how much to reraise him? I'm not raising him back, coz I'm not sure I've got the best hand and it could cost me $45/$50 more if I'm wrong. If you think he's got AK/AQ or 5's or 4's full I'd push if you think he'll go for the whole amount. Playing 6 handed and if he's aggressive, it is conceivable he could have A4/A5, or AA, but not likely, but he did raise b4 the flop. How much I raise would depend on my read of how strong I think his hand is. If you pop him $15 more and he goes all in on you, your nines full will be in trouble and it would be hard for you to call his all in raise of aprox $45 more and expensive. Tough hand to read the way the betting has gone, but I just call his reraise to $21 becoz I sense strength. Gl

Only hand that beats us is AA, he should never have a better boat here. Shove?

I figured that a raise would get paid by ATs, AJ or at least AQ, AK, while a shove would get almost no AX caller; thought that would make a raise/call more profitable than a shove

More hands beat us : AA, but also A5, A4, while we beat trip Aces (any AX), 55 and 44

It'll be hard for him to let go of AQ/AK. 55 will probably call a shove and that's still more combos than AA, so I think it's still the right play. And he might have 44 too.

bet flop for starters, flat his river 3bet

Since the 4c, 5s and the red aces are out there, all he beats us with is As4s, Ac5c and one combo of AA. You beat a total of 6 combo's of 55/44 that will call a shove FOR SURE (vs. 3 combo's that beat us). He might or might not call AK/AQ, if he raises them at all (given the potential *%$#spot he is facing when you reraise him). Easy shove.

Bet flop. If someone has an A, he has a hard time folding (especially if it is PFR who decides to c/c). If no one has a hand, ur not going to win a lot of money anyway. The value that u lose vs. a random A that c/c only turn and river now because of your flop check isn't nearly compensated by a one-street bluff from either of the 2.

could you explain why? imo it's hard for him to have a better FH because (probably) A9, A5 and A4 are not in his pre flop opening range anf if they are I dont think they are in his flop slowplaying range (whereas slowplaying AA could be reasonable especially if both OP and BTN are tight and str8forward regs). so we should only lose to aces here. do you think he has AA often enough to make a flat better than a shove (or a 4bet)? or are you putting him on better boats?

i dont think he overvalues AK so much that he'll call a jam

If 55 and 44 are in his UTG opening range then it's a shove imo.

Only one way to find out for sure

JAM BOAT FOR MOAR MONIES.

In Villain's shoes, against a shove I would instantly muck AK-

A reasonable shoving range for me would be, let's say :

- 99, 55, 44 (rarely AA), 9 combos
- A9s, A5s, A4s (let's say I'm calling pre with these 50 %) 9 combos
- No AX making trips : I would flat 100 % of them

That's 18 combos that would shove and crush AK- , and zero AX combo that whould shove and might get crushed.

If this reasoning is not flawed and Villain plays correctly, he never calls a shove.

Whereas if I raise him, I can get paid by his AK- some of the times and will get reshoved by his AA, 55 and 44 almost always.

What do you think ?

Like I said before, villain only has one combo of A5s, one combo of A4s, and one combo of AA. A9s isn't possible since u have 2 of the 9's, there's one on the board, and 2 aces are already out there as well. So he beats us with exactly 3 combo's. He has 6 combo's of 55/44 in his range. That is twice a much combo's we beat as combo's that beat us. So this is a must shove. That's really all there is to it.

I'm not a math genuis or anything, but I am pretty sure a9 is possible.

I just call the 3b I think.

That assumes UTG is fish enough to raise A9o pre though. Can't have any A9s hands due to what board and hero's holdings are.