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Nl50 3bet pot, 2nd pair, 3 bet bluff shove flop? Nl50 3bet pot, 2nd pair, 3 bet bluff shove flop?

09-20-2010 , 05:09 AM
Villian is 13/9 tag, 80% FT3b over ~1k, although this stat may be a bit high b/c I've been abusing the hell out of him. Playing at 4am so he's on like all of my tables, and for sure has noticed.

He is capable of making big laydowns, and Im fairly convinced he doesnt want to play for stacks with JJ or QQ here which is a huge part of his range as when a typical 50nl player 3bets the flop here they basically always have AA or KK.

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

CO: $37.60
BTN: $57.80
Hero (SB): $51.00
BB: $35.00
UTG: $125.80
UTG+1: $17.05
MP1: $20.45
MP2: $56.65

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is SB with A 9
5 folds, BTN raises to $1.50, Hero raises to $5, 1 fold, BTN calls $3.50

Flop: ($10.50) T 9 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $6, BTN requests TIME, BTN raises to $15, Hero requests TIME, Hero raises to $46 all in, BTN calls $31
Nl50 3bet pot, 2nd pair, 3 bet bluff shove flop? Quote
09-20-2010 , 05:11 AM
forgot to add, ATS is 35%, although again its possible he's adjusted a bit.
Nl50 3bet pot, 2nd pair, 3 bet bluff shove flop? Quote
09-20-2010 , 05:13 AM
Okay, so you believe he is raising the flop to 30bb and folding JJ-QQ? That's what I like to call grade-A wishful thinking.

You may have the best hand some portion of the time, IF he's the type to spazz out against constant abuse. But I doubt he's just spazzing out since that board hits a 3-bet calling range pretty hard.
Nl50 3bet pot, 2nd pair, 3 bet bluff shove flop? Quote
09-20-2010 , 05:14 AM
Sorry i should be more clear. I believe he flats my cbet with his sdv hands.
Nl50 3bet pot, 2nd pair, 3 bet bluff shove flop? Quote
09-20-2010 , 06:00 AM
3bet shoving here is only fine if you think that:

- villain will be bluffraising here a fair % of the time (dead money + possible equity of his holding + board texture makes shoving better in that spot as opposed to flatting which would theoretically be "more" correct usually).
- villain might raise/call off hands like AhQh, AhJh, QdJd.

Against a more realistic range consisting of strong draws and better made hands we're in really bad shape though, even adding some semi-bluffs like KsQs and AdQd to his range:

Board: Th 9d 4h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.741% 32.73% 00.01% 3564 1.50 { Ac9c }
Hand 1: 67.259% 67.25% 00.01% 7323 1.50 { TT-99, AhKh, AdQd, AhQh, AhJh, KsQs, QdJd, T9s }

In general, this is a spot in which we'll mostly either be way behind or very slightly ahead and we will not be slightly ahead often enough to make this shove profitable.
Nl50 3bet pot, 2nd pair, 3 bet bluff shove flop? Quote
09-20-2010 , 11:38 AM
This works if he has AT and turned it into a semi bluff. Which is possible B vs B. That's about all.
Nl50 3bet pot, 2nd pair, 3 bet bluff shove flop? Quote

      
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