PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 64 BB
CO: 321.4 BB
BTN: 181.4 BB
Hero (SB): 114.4 BB

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Q Q

CO raises to 2.4 BB, fold, Hero raises to 9 BB, fold, CO calls 6.6 BB

Flop: (19 BB, 2 players) 2 3 2
Hero bets 14 BB, CO calls 14 BB

Turn: (47 BB, 2 players) 9
Hero bets 34 BB, CO raises to 298.4 BB and is all-in, fold

CO wins 110.2 BB

Villian stats vp=23, pr =15, 3b = 2 over 762 hands


pocket nines is possible.

Think we have to call here. He could be shipping quite a few combo draws.

Too much invested to fold.

I have reads on him he is never bluffing here.

If he's never bluffing then it depends on whether he's shipping TT-JJ for value OTT.

AA and KK would presumably 4b pre so we can take them out of his range.

what's his ft3b? If he isn't flatting much 3b's I don't mind flatting here since we are not too thrilled about GII pre. Turn is prob close, what equity do we need to BE here?

ez call.

Why are we folding?

cause hero has MUBS

Call

Lol MUBS

what is mubs?

monster under the bed syndrome

Google is your friend. Thats how i figured it out.

If anything this is more AA/KK weighted than 99/combo draws. Combo draw like AhKh probably makes it's move OTF. 99 may fold often enough preflop. But if we fold here, we're essentially bluffing the whole hand with what's pretty much the third nuts, which means we need to just flat preflop.

It really depends on what TT and JJ do. Aggression stats would be nice or any reads other than "he doesn't bluff". With half of our stack in, getting 3 to 1 (roughly) we may have to do some math.

AA = 60% x 5% = 3%
KK = 10% x 5% = 0.5%
QQ = 1% x 50% = 0.5%
JJ = 20% x 95% = 19%
TT = 5% x 95% = 4.75%
99 = 4% x 5% = 0.2%

Total equity is roughly 28%

(rough estimates)

The numbers can obviously vary significantly based on what his exact range is, and I don't think we have enough info to correctly deduct a proper range. But, it looks like with rough estimates we have the proper odds we need to call.

-I gave AA a much higher percentage because a player like this may not 4bet AA and hope for a flop like this. Meanwhile, KK is much less likely to take a line like this because usually KK is more eager to get more money in preflop, because it's not a "trappy" hand. I gave 99, TT, and JJ a lower range because these hands would be more likely to just call down or even call and fold river (except for 99, but I just don't think it's a huge part of his range).