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NL5: overplayed AK hit broadway on river NL5: overplayed AK hit broadway on river

10-16-2009 , 09:39 PM
Villain is 30/6 over 40hands

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($7.32)
BB ($7.57)
UTG ($5.37)
UTG+1 ($4.69)
Hero (MP1) ($5.34)
MP2 ($5.03)
CO ($4.47)
Button ($5.36)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K, A
2 folds, Hero bets $0.17, 1 fold, CO calls $0.17, 3 folds

Flop: ($0.41) 10, 9, Q (2 players)
Hero bets $0.25, CO calls $0.25

Turn: ($0.91) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.60, CO calls $0.60

River: ($2.11) J (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $2.11, Hero calls $2.11

Total pot: $6.33 | Rake: $0.42


I guess turn would better be a c/f but my b/f (yes i was planning to fold to a raise) line is not the worst in the world. So now on the river we hit the broadway with villain calling down 2 streets aka the flush draw is a big percentage of his range. I decided to call because i saw him do some big bets on late streets when checked to 2-3times already. Soooo i think theres some queens in his range aswell as air and some rivered 2-pairs that he would overplay like this. He could also be going bonkers with some Kings here.

What would you have one here?
NL5: overplayed AK hit broadway on river Quote
10-16-2009 , 10:52 PM
Well, let's say your opponent's range is fairly wide, like:
JJ-22,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s, AQo-ATo,K9o+,Q9o+,J9o+,T9o,98o,87o

Of his entire range (assuming he doesn't fold):
flush 5.4% of the time
AK 1.16% of the time
Set (99-JJ) 3.47% of the time
2pair (Q9, QT, QJ,JT) 14% of the time
pair+gutshot to worse str8 (KQ, K9, KT) 13.5%
pair+idiot gutshot (87,98,T8,Q8) 10.4%

Now it's a question of -- what does he try to bet pot with on the river?
If it's flushes and AK, and never straights or sets, you should probably fold as you are beat >80%. If you think it's possible he gets there on the river AND will try to valuebet a Kx/set/2pair type hand, it's a good call.

However, I'm not sure people at $5 NL bet a K on the river there -- i expect them mostly to bet flushes. I guess if you suspect that your opponent likes to randomly pot out on the river, then you very likely have him crushed with the straight.

Last edited by jmc999; 10-16-2009 at 10:58 PM.
NL5: overplayed AK hit broadway on river Quote

      
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