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nl5: flop a set and get c/r nl5: flop a set and get c/r

12-29-2012 , 02:42 PM
Hero (BTN): $7.86 (157.2 bb)
SB: $5.52 (110.4 bb)
BB: $12.50 (250 bb)
MP: $3.78 (75.6 bb)
CO: $13.01 (260.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with 2 2
MP folds, CO raises to $0.15, Hero calls $0.15, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.37) 9 T 2 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $0.35, CO raises to $1.20
Hero?
nl5: flop a set and get c/r Quote
12-29-2012 , 02:45 PM
call and hope for a brick on the turn (or a paired board).

or re-raise.

probably re-raise
nl5: flop a set and get c/r Quote
12-29-2012 , 02:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hainesy_2KT
call and hope for a brick on the turn (or a paired board).

or re-raise.

probably re-raise
Just jam it , and wait for AA or KK with a club?
We have positition , i think that's an obvious flat here
but do we jam the turn with a blank ?
nl5: flop a set and get c/r Quote
12-29-2012 , 03:00 PM
jamming= no
calling= good
having stats to judge= best
nl5: flop a set and get c/r Quote
12-29-2012 , 03:00 PM
Jam, he's likely got a FD with an overpair, and you've got 7 outs to a full house if he has a flush. If you jam he also might fold 99 and TT if that's what he has.
nl5: flop a set and get c/r Quote
12-29-2012 , 03:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by spikeraw22
jamming= no
calling= good
having stats to judge= best
my bad.. 31/27, and folds the flop 50% .. 110 hands

Last edited by MartimC; 12-29-2012 at 03:14 PM.
nl5: flop a set and get c/r Quote
12-29-2012 , 03:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Syfer
Jam, he's likely got a FD with an overpair, and you've got 7 outs to a full house if he has a flush. If you jam he also might fold 99 and TT if that's what he has.
is never folding 99 or TT , why jam when we can se the turn in position? and we don't know his hand
nl5: flop a set and get c/r Quote
12-29-2012 , 03:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MartimC
is never folding 99 or TT , why jam when we can se the turn in position? and we don't know his hand
I don't hate calling I just think there are so many ugly cards that can come. Obviously any club is a check/fold but the villain could be on a lot of monster draws, what if an 8, J, Q, K or A comes, that's a lot of scary cards.

The more I think about it the harder the choice seems though. My thoughts are that right now we're behind 99, TT, and a made flush, but there are a lot of combo draws that would get it in on the flop, and if you call you aren't going to know where you are on the turn or river and you might get it in drawing dead.

I think if you could find the fold button on the river if it blanked twice and the villain triple barreled there is maybe an argument for calling, but I think most people would go broke there considered villains can still be doing that with overpairs or even busted draws.
nl5: flop a set and get c/r Quote
12-29-2012 , 03:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Syfer
I don't hate calling I just think there are so many ugly cards that can come. Obviously any club is a check/fold but the villain could be on a lot of monster draws, what if an 8, J, Q, K or A comes, that's a lot of scary cards.

The more I think about it the harder the choice seems though. My thoughts are that right now we're behind 99, TT, and a made flush, but there are a lot of combo draws that would get it in on the flop, and if you call you aren't going to know where you are on the turn or river and you might get it in drawing dead.

I think if you could find the fold button on the river if it blanked twice and the villain triple barreled there is maybe an argument for calling, but I think most people would go broke there considered villains can still be doing that with overpairs or even busted draws.





Hero (BTN): $7.86 (157.2 bb)
SB: $5.52 (110.4 bb)
BB: $12.50 (250 bb)
MP: $3.78 (75.6 bb)
CO: $13.01 (260.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with 2 2
MP folds, CO raises to $0.15, Hero calls $0.15, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.37) 9 T 2 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $0.35, CO raises to $1.20, Hero calls $0.85

Turn: ($2.77) J (2 players)
CO bets $2.10, Hero calls $2.10

River: ($6.97) 3 (2 players)
CO bets $5.35 and is all in, Hero ??
nl5: flop a set and get c/r Quote
12-29-2012 , 04:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MartimC
Hero (BTN): $7.86 (157.2 bb)
SB: $5.52 (110.4 bb)
BB: $12.50 (250 bb)
MP: $3.78 (75.6 bb)
CO: $13.01 (260.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with 2 2
MP folds, CO raises to $0.15, Hero calls $0.15, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.37) 9 T 2 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $0.35, CO raises to $1.20, Hero calls $0.85

Turn: ($2.77) J (2 players)
CO bets $2.10, Hero calls $2.10

River: ($6.97) 3 (2 players)
CO bets $5.35 and is all in, Hero ??
I'd fold that, all you're beating is AA, KK and QQ there, I still think shoving is better though.

The way I see it there are 5 possible outcomes if you call. The ones in green are the ones where calling turns out better, the ones in red are the ones where you'd have been better shoving.

1-The turn and river blank like they did in that hand and you can fold fairly confidently.

Result, you were behind the whole way and you didn't go broke.

2-The a 4th club comes and the villain barrels again and you fold with confidence.
Result, you fold being behind, but you ahead on the flop.

3-The 4th club comes and the villain checks, maybe you can bluff him off a set or overpair now, although you were ahead of the overpair anyway.

Result, if the villain folds 99 or TT you were behind and you won a pot you wouldn't have won otherwise. Maybe the villain doesn't fold their set or had a flush anyway and you get stacked.

4-The turn and/or river bring cards that could complete a lot of draws. 8, J, Q, K or A are the ones I can see as likely.

Result, the villain barrels again you might fold the best hand or call drawing to 1 out even though you may have been ahead on the flop.

5-The board pairs and you make a full house.
Result, you get it in anyway and the villain calls with his flushes and better full houses. The draws that don't get there fold.
nl5: flop a set and get c/r Quote
12-29-2012 , 05:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Syfer
I'd fold that, all you're beating is AA, KK and QQ there, I still think shoving is better though.

The way I see it there are 5 possible outcomes if you call. The ones in green are the ones where calling turns out better, the ones in red are the ones where you'd have been better shoving.

1-The turn and river blank like they did in that hand and you can fold fairly confidently.

Result, you were behind the whole way and you didn't go broke.

2-The a 4th club comes and the villain barrels again and you fold with confidence.
Result, you fold being behind, but you ahead on the flop.

3-The 4th club comes and the villain checks, maybe you can bluff him off a set or overpair now, although you were ahead of the overpair anyway.

Result, if the villain folds 99 or TT you were behind and you won a pot you wouldn't have won otherwise. Maybe the villain doesn't fold their set or had a flush anyway and you get stacked.

4-The turn and/or river bring cards that could complete a lot of draws. 8, J, Q, K or A are the ones I can see as likely.

Result, the villain barrels again you might fold the best hand or call drawing to 1 out even though you may have been ahead on the flop.

5-The board pairs and you make a full house.
Result, you get it in anyway and the villain calls with his flushes and better full houses. The draws that don't get there fold.
He's kinda fishy , so i guess we can beat JcT(makes some sense), Jc9, QQ, KK, AAc , AcT, even Ax one club (wich prob c/f river) and we can't beat TT, 99, JJ , KcQ and flushes, i guess with TT i'm jamming flop, with 22 i'm just flating, and he's not folding any of this hands to a jam , so i guess call flop , jam turn on a blank it's the best play..
nl5: flop a set and get c/r Quote
12-29-2012 , 05:52 PM
Villain is very unlikely to play 99-TT this way. I'd reraise and get it in.

Calling loses value vs draws/T9 and allow villain to bluff us a small % of the time should a come.

Calling only makes sense if you give him a lot of flushes and plan on folding later if you don't improve. Or if you think that a) villain bluffs very often and b) villain keeps bluffing on the turn.

Last edited by ForeverLearning; 12-29-2012 at 06:04 PM.
nl5: flop a set and get c/r Quote
12-29-2012 , 06:04 PM
I think calling pre is a mistake, the CO's range is wide and you're not going to hit a set enough to make it up. 3bet pre.
nl5: flop a set and get c/r Quote
12-29-2012 , 06:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scratcher
I think calling pre is a mistake, the CO's range is wide and you're not going to hit a set enough to make it up. 3bet pre.
We're deeper and getting a good price, also if he's a fish or unknown you can assume you get some value when you hit. I'd probably reraise flop and get it in, we're strong vs his range. We're 34% if he did flop a flush, if we get set over set oh wells, but I think he can have a lot of pair + FD or combo draws we're ahead, even T9.
nl5: flop a set and get c/r Quote
12-29-2012 , 06:49 PM
Ship it. You rely more on fold equity since you're without the 2 and can't make a flush! j/k, still ship it though.
nl5: flop a set and get c/r Quote
12-29-2012 , 07:07 PM
The best you can hope is 50/50 if you ship

Calling with pocket is profitable when stack is at least as big as: 20 x [the cost of seeing the flop]
nl5: flop a set and get c/r Quote
12-29-2012 , 07:52 PM
Readless I'd get it in on flop, with the reads I'd play as played and fold river.
nl5: flop a set and get c/r Quote
12-29-2012 , 08:43 PM
I'm definitely shoving flop, this seems pretty obvious to me. I don't like calling because it lets him draw cheaply and folding is way too weak. You have full house outs to trump flush draws As well.
nl5: flop a set and get c/r Quote
12-29-2012 , 09:08 PM
I'm dead to a set, drawing to a boat if he has a flush , or i'm 55% 44% , don't see the point of jamming , and create a pot of 400bb's in this flop.
By calling on the flop i have the chance to turn a boat and stack him; if a club comes i can bluff him of a set, and if comes blank, blank i can fold the river, since i'm almost sure he wouldn't bluff the river with A high
nl5: flop a set and get c/r Quote
12-29-2012 , 09:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MartimC
I'm dead to a set, drawing to a boat if he has a flush , or i'm 55% 44% , don't see the point of jamming , and create a pot of 400bb's in this flop.
By calling on the flop i have the chance to turn a boat and stack him; if a club comes i can bluff him of a set, and if comes blank, blank i can fold the river, since i'm almost sure he wouldn't bluff the river with A high
Because he will fold his draws if they don't get there and you won't get his stack. If you call you are only making money on the river from him folding his busted draws or overvaluing overpairs, if you bet the river and he calls it will only be with a hand better than yours or maybe AA and KK if he is bad.

On the flop he will call with all his draws and he won't be getting the correct pot odds to call so it is +EV for you.

And if a club comes what? Maybe he folds his set of 99s or maybe he shoves with his AA he could have either and you have no idea which.
nl5: flop a set and get c/r Quote
12-30-2012 , 04:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Syfer
Because he will fold his draws if they don't get there and you won't get his stack. If you call you are only making money on the river from him folding his busted draws or overvaluing overpairs, if you bet the river and he calls it will only be with a hand better than yours or maybe AA and KK if he is bad.

On the flop he will call with all his draws and he won't be getting the correct pot odds to call so it is +EV for you.

And if a club comes what? Maybe he folds his set of 99s or maybe he shoves with his AA he could have either and you have no idea which.
I prefer flatting the flop.. anyway i guess jamming is good too since he is not repping a set by c/r ..
Did had TT btw, worst hand for me
nl5: flop a set and get c/r Quote

      
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