PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 100 BB (VPIP: 23.45, PFR: 20.85, 3Bet Preflop: 6.50, Hands: 316)
Hero (BB): 100 BB
UTG: 124 BB (VPIP: 24.71, PFR: 11.76, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 87)
MP: 103 BB (VPIP: 43.75, PFR: 31.25, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 49)
CO: 152.8 BB (VPIP: 47.32, PFR: 13.66, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 214)
BTN: 135.8 BB (VPIP: 27.65, PFR: 23.48, 3Bet Preflop: 14.74, Hands: 272)

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 7 7

fold, MP raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 1 BB

Flop: (4.4 BB, 2 players) 7 A K
Hero checks, MP bets 2 BB, Hero calls 2 BB

Turn: (8.4 BB, 2 players) 5
Hero checks, MP bets 4 BB, Hero calls 4 BB

River: (16.4 BB, 2 players) A
Hero checks, MP bets 12.8 BB, Hero raises to 36 BB, MP raises to 95 BB and is all-in

Hero - ?

General assumption I have here that A trips and flushes would just call a river and boats would 3-bet all in. Here we are beating only 55 and the rest boat combos are better. We don't know much about the opponent, but so far 43/31, but just a little sample of hands. Also Total AF = 1, which is a bit on a lower side..

you’re always going to see a better hand here if u call.

1. V has to be value betting good trips for that size OTR

2. V has to turn that into a bluff

these 2 things are extremely unlikely to happen at 5NL.

He is kinda loose aggresive 43/31/7 but only 49hands

imo there is also factor Nr.3 overvalues hands, He might do this with nut-flush

P.S. I still prefer folding

I'm going to call this when we block the 2 A7 boats. We basically have to always expect to lose but its our best bluffcatcher when we almost definitely raise flushes OTR and as long as we also find thin value/bluffs in this spot we can pretty happy knowing that his jamming range is poorly constructed.

I think shove river is fine but fold as played. Just never bluff catch vs river 3-bets

If the sample size were larger we could definitely consider villain to be overplaying a flush, but otherwise we are probably beat.

This is a huge leak of mine that I am slowly plugging: calling bets/raises hoping that villain is value owning themselves (since they are very rarely actually bluffing).

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In this spot you need to make a disciplined fold.

In NL5 they will almost never bluff 3bet river.

Thank you for the replies!
I really appreciate the community and inputs.
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