stats over 29k hands (mined): 26/18/28ATS/fold to 3bet 45/4bet range 2.2
in rrpots: fold to cbet 36, raise cbet 34%, cr flop 19%

he calls a lot pre (snapped 22 oop, 100BBs deep not too long ago), no other relevant history so far

thoughts?

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $4(BB) Replayer
SB ($205)
BB ($564)
UTG ($115)
CO ($651)
Hero ($563)

Dealt to Hero KQ

CO raises to $14, Hero raises to $48, fold, fold, fold, CO calls $34,

FLOP ($102) 3AK

check, Hero bets $60, CO raises to $160, Hero calls $100,

TURN ($422) 3AK2

check, check,

RIVER ($422) 3AK24

CO bets $250, Hero calls $250

would fold thinking he hit some gay 5 think u should bet turn tbh tho

yikes

^^^don't understand advocating betting the turn and folding the river b/c of the 5

I like the entire line, definitely wouldn't bet turn unless to induce.

I don't understand preflop and flop play or am I missing something?

preflop: he's aggro and calls 3bets widely. flop: representing an extremely isolated range as he is unapt to be raising AQ or AJ here. turn: checks, hoping for free river to his draw or just giving up with air. river: missed draw but **** it that's a scary card and OP checked the turn so he bets, we call, **** him.

me neither

I think this is pretty awful all around, flop play is truly baffling unless you have a read he's going to c/r bluff a lot, which I assume you'd give if you had that read.

river is a pretty clear fold to me, it's obvious you have like AJ/AQ and I don't think anyone's gonna expect you to fold top pair for just over 1/2 pot

this is a mess - i'd call preflop, check behind flop and then fold to a c/r, turn check is good, and river should be a fold. KQ != AA.

I think here on river, anyone that flats light will likely play top pair this way. We check turn for pot control and thus, appears were likely to call a river bet so I think this bet of his is the goods. If he thinks we were on FD, about only nonmade hand we should be here with, we didnt get there so this looks a bet for value. Though I'm a station and your getting over 3 to 1 on call so I'm likely to snap it off as you need to be right less than 1 in 4 times.

To all of the haters, what do you put him on? He's opening 30% of his hands and calling 3bets over half the time and he's obviously aggro, there's waaay more club draws and airballs that are c/ring than 33 (which would bet turn) and AQ (which may 4bet pre and is basically never c/ring here, let's be honest) / AJ.

I really don't see how this is bad at all, from start to finish.

preflop: im in position, he calls all kind of garbage preflop and i dominate a lot of that. im only really worried about AQ, but im in position and can control the pot

flop: checking behind is a decent option here, but imo its a bit too obvious...
he raises cbets a ton in 3bet pots (whats ur stat there? imo 34% is way above average) and probably has AQ, 33, maybe AJ (but does he raise this?) air and gutshots/flushdraws in his range...
because im only crushed against AQ, AJ and 33 (and 33 is rare) im calling an reevaluating the turn

turn: i could bet/call for protection here, but again i have a medium strength hand w/ showdown value and i want to get to showdown cheaply

river: theres some merrit to folding because he cant rep huge strength after checking the turn, but i figured he could have a busted flushdraw/gutshot some of the time (i need 27%) -> call

i just fold river. Usually if he was bluffing the flop and gave up he's not going to try again on the river. But this spot is villain depedant.

it's just a situation where this flop smacks your 3betting range, and despite the fact you have all these beautiful mined stats, the truth of the matter is I doubt he's going to be bluffing someone with absolutely no history on a flop where a lot of the time he's going to have no outs whatsoever when called. not to mention bet/calling midpair is extremely high variance and frankly quite wishful when all you have are mined stats on a guy. I think it's awful, just awful

river should be a blatant fold. this flop is WA/WB if you have a marginal hand like KQ or A3 therefore most people aren't bet/calling marginal hands on the flop and instead checking for pot control. so he should know we have AQ/AJ a very good chunk of the time and thus not bluff for half pot

absolutely this