Villain is new to the table (PAHUD shows him at 20/20/inf after only 5 hands).

We played one hand before this:

CO ($394.00)
Button ($375.40)
SB ($396.00) (Hero)
BB ($587.30)
UTG+2 ($415.70)
MP1 ($322.40)
MP2 ($228.70)
MP3 ($86.00)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8, 8
5 folds, Button raises to 16.0, Hero raises to 54.0, 1 folds, Button calls $40.00,

Flop: 9, 6, 9 ( $116 )
Hero bets $78.00, Button raises All-In $319.4, 1 folds,

Final Pot: $510.40



MP1 ($400.00)
MP2 ($576.40)
MP3 ($400.00) (Hero)
CO ($553.30)
Button ($409.70)
SB ($318.40)
BB ($54.00)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q, K
1 folds, MP2 calls $4.00, Hero raises to 20.0, 1 folds, Button calls $20.00, 2 folds, MP2 calls $16.00,

Flop: 9, K, 4 ( $66 )
MP2 checks, Hero bets $40.00, 1 folds, MP2 calls $40.00,

Turn: 9 ( $146 )
MP2 checks, Hero checks,

River: 7 ( $146 )
MP2 bets $40.00, Hero ???

I assume this turn check is standard, right?
His small river bet makes me want to value-raise. Thoughts?

$120?

340 behind, what % of the time are we folding to a 3bet on the river should he do that ? And are we hoping to get called by exactly KT/KJ in this spot when we raise ? Does he call with worse ?

I think we have to fold to any 3-bet. I can't really imagine he will do this as a bluff. I was thinking that I might get called by about any pair. Pocket pairs must be a large part of his range.

This is how I think villain might see the hand:
Flop: I c-bet on a dry flop. Might do this with any two cards.
Turn: I check behind. Maybe scared of the 9. More likely I have a weak hand (Ax,22-66,SC).
River: It's unlikely the 7 helped my hand so my line is inconsistent. Why check turn and then raise the river? His theory: I see his weak bet and think I could bluff-raise him off his hand.

meh I just know a lot of people like to check that turn if they fill up, you can't leave out that scenario where he's thinking "damn he fills up on the turn, now I'm roasted".

But if this player calls every pocket pair on this river as you say, then it should be an insta raise. I just don't know the player well enough.

theres no real value in raising you are not getting called by anything you beat, unless he is a donk

$140

u can raise it if u can fold to a reraise..if u cant do that then its just better to call..

i find myself in these spots raising and promising myself that i would fold to reraise but then i find out that its only some small % of pot to call more..

not raising here is def missin gsome value so u can raise if u r good enough to fold...

$130-$140 and fold to a raise is good

hand 1
if you bet the flop you should be calling his shove

hand 2
make it $140

lol at not raising this river... Obv raise imo

I don't know the player either. He is an unknown and that he calls with any/most pairs is pure speculation. I wanted to know if that is a sound assumption.

I don't think I ever check the turn here if I have a full house unless I have a super accurate x-ray read. Otherwise you are passing up on stacking villain if he has any decent hand.

Against an unknown who has no reason to believe I reraise him light and must think that 99+ is a significant part of my range?