Could you explain more about why this is a fold for great players, and a jam for good players? What makes folding here >>> jaming? I'm not saying you're wrong by any stretch, however I think a lot of us could benefit from your thought process, and how you arrive at a fold.

This is gold

but by this logic the situation is exactly the same everytime a player takes this line

or at least you are never eliminating semi bluffs from his range. which of course u can do vs a lot of people

from a non-bluffy player, to bluff-raise this flop almost never happens. has to be a fold. I expect to be beaten here almost 90% of the time.

someone linked me in skype. I think c/f non club non K turn = std fold

With your reads OP i think folding is fine

you guys fold here? interesting.

Don't you get it? NW cannot be more clear....
Folding is just the best play that you can make here. What else you gonna do? Go to showdown?
Jamming is just lol here, what if he folds? Don't you miss out on value?

you guys would have to pry this hand away from my cold dead hands.

I read every post and I still stick to "it's so close that it doesn't really matter". I could see arguments for raising, calling or folding here..

I think this is why we got 12 different replies.

Also, random question to Never Win.. why would you ever "fold and show"? It doesn't really help us to show him we folded TPGK in this spot.

to all the people who fold, what do you with AA here

what do you with JJ/TT/JTs, both on the flop, turn before he bets, and current turn action?

how are you playing KQdd on this turn

i can't believe for a second that a guy playing NL2K HU doesn't realise that our flop bet/calling range contains a bunch of hands that are c/f the turn

to show them whos boss.

Heh, pretty entertainging thread

lol, I'm not even sure who is leveling harder, Kaby or NW. Obviously NW is having fun and he's not trying to hide it, but Kaby explains with all seriousness.'

In a vacuum yeah, it might seem that when you observe some1's betting, that they are likely to have a bluff. But that's not how it works. Seeing him simply betting has close to zero relevance to figuring out if he's bluffing or not.
Ok, bottom line, try this way: if he has not bet in thousand hands and suddenly he bets and you observe him bet, you don't go thinking, hm tough spot, well i see he is betting, so likely he is bluffing. Yeah snap! Oops fail!
So obviously you have to take into consideration reads developed over that 1k hands and estimate his range, how many combos of semi/bluffs he can have, then think about his betting frequencies, how lose/wide/agro he's playing, what kind of hands he VBets, turns into bluff etc blah blah blah, then think about what he thinks of his image in your eyes, is he capable of making a rare move in this spot thinking it's a sure spot, that you fold given his range your range, action, blah blah and so on. Then if your decision is close, you go to SD to collect info, but if it's not close enough, you start make up cheap excuse of "wow he's betting, likely bluffing, call".

lol charlton heston ITT

I probably don't fold. I think folding is slightly worse than the other two options.

i call flop, jam turn with all of those hands (AA/JJ/TT/JT/KQdd)

Question is whether to flat turn or shove, and pretty sure I'm going w/ flatting because I'm usually happy here or coolered.

call flop and folding this turn seems bad. if ur folding this turn, why dont u just fold flop? am i missing something by saying this?? im curious, just seems to me, i wud think this type of player is prob not bluffing here based on what u said so ur crushed by his range, u also have k blocker making qk every so slightly less common, which is main bluffing hand prob. i just dont see benefit of calling flop w intention to fold to bet on turn

Well im very entertained by this thread first of all.

Its definitely an awkward spot that intuitively feels like a call until analysed a little more closely and then it becomes really close.

yeah, both folding the turn and calling the flop could be correct. Folding the turn doesnt mean calling the flop was/is -EV.

Seems like a jam anyway.
We can assume his range is all value-heavy, AJ+, but he is unknown to us basically, and this is NL2k in a 3BP, this reg would have to be a NIT, as MasterLJ described. I'm not sure what he thinks of Nick, if he is making huge hero calls, or capable of making strong laydowns. If it's first, then obv his range is all value on this board, but if it's second then obv villain has so much random crap. If we take into consideration Bayes theory, then it makes an easy jam by default in this scenario. Even if bayes is just a complete BS, I just don't see how we can fold this. NL2k reg is capable of bluffing here vs strong-thinking opponent, especially given that he hasn't been caught before and been inline and seems not a bluffing type, and given that this is not 50bb pot, it's even more then 100bb, also that Nick would think of a deuce as a blank ofcourse, thus bluffs would make not much sense. Like at NL200 against an average reg this would be snappidy-snap, assuming you are agressive player and he is capable of showing agression also:

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $2(BB) Replayer
Hero ($978)
($355)

Dealt to Hero Q K

raises to $4, Hero raises to $22, calls $18

FLOP ($44) 4 8 K

Hero bets $24, raises to $48, Hero calls $24

TURN ($140) 4 8 K 3

Hero checks, bets $80, Hero calls $80

RIVER ($300) 4 8 K 3 6

Hero checks, bets $205 (AI), Hero calls $205

shows J 9
(Pre 35%, Flop 4.3%, Turn 0.0%)

Hero shows Q K
(Pre 65%, Flop 95.7%, Turn 100.0%)

Hero wins $709

anyone who hasn't understood kaby here is an idiot... so many bad analogies being made.

Nice...

Thoughts on the hand Moss?