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NL25 - TwoPair vs nasty river NL25 - TwoPair vs nasty river

12-28-2012 , 06:11 PM
I play this hand back and forth, changing ranges in one or the other direction, and i need to get it out of my head. I came to a conclusion that youll see below, but i need your opinions to strengthen it. Heres the hand:

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players

BTN: $23.07
SB: $10.18
BB: $25.00
Hero (UTG): $25.35
CO: $38.47

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG with A T
Hero raises to $0.75, CO calls $0.75, 2 folds, BB calls $0.50

Flop: ($2.35) A 7 T (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.40, CO calls $1.40, BB folds

Turn: ($5.15) K (2 players)
Hero bets $3.50, CO calls $3.50

River: ($12.15) Q (2 players)
Hero ???

Villain seems to be a solid player and hasnt done anything strange so far. I think he 3bets AA-QQ, AK, AQ pre (maybe not AQ) and raises TT, 77 and QJdd on flop or turn. I dont expect him to call the flop with a lone gutshot with the BB still to act, so i discount KQ, KJ, QJ w/o the flushdraw. That leaves him with following hands:

AJs, KJdd, KQdd (and AQ if he doesnt 3bet pre): fits perfectly
JJ, Txs: may have folded turn
98dd: fits perfectly
98s (w/o diamond): should have folded turn

I beat KQdd and 98s and lose to everything else, so a bet seems -ev. If i check, he bets every J and 98s and checks behind everything else. Since i dont think he has JJ, JTs and 98 w/o diamond in his range too often, he would bet for value with 3 combos always (AJss, AJcc, KJdd) and may bluff with one combo (98dd). This brings me to the conclusion that i should check/call all bets up to halfpotsize and check/fold otherwise.

Please share your opinions on the ranges i put villain on and the conclusion i draw.
NL25 - TwoPair vs nasty river Quote
12-28-2012 , 06:13 PM
I dont know if c/c River is profitable at all.

They always have a J when they bet the River.
NL25 - TwoPair vs nasty river Quote
12-28-2012 , 06:23 PM
bet slightly more on flop 1,65$
turn is fine
just check-fold river
NL25 - TwoPair vs nasty river Quote

      
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