I play this hand back and forth, changing ranges in one or the other direction, and i need to get it out of my head. I came to a conclusion that youll see below, but i need your opinions to strengthen it. Heres the hand:
Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
BTN: $23.07
SB: $10.18
BB: $25.00
Hero (UTG): $25.35
CO: $38.47
Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG with A

T
Hero raises to $0.75, CO calls $0.75,
2 folds, BB calls $0.50
Flop: ($2.35) A

7

T
(3 players)
BB checks,
Hero bets $1.40, CO calls $1.40, BB folds
Turn: ($5.15) K
(2 players)
Hero bets $3.50, CO calls $3.50
River: ($12.15) Q
(2 players)
Hero ???
Villain seems to be a solid player and hasnt done anything strange so far. I think he 3bets AA-QQ, AK, AQ pre (maybe not AQ) and raises TT, 77 and QJdd on flop or turn. I dont expect him to call the flop with a lone gutshot with the BB still to act, so i discount KQ, KJ, QJ w/o the flushdraw. That leaves him with following hands:
AJs, KJdd, KQdd (and AQ if he doesnt 3bet pre): fits perfectly
JJ, Txs: may have folded turn
98dd: fits perfectly
98s (w/o diamond): should have folded turn
I beat KQdd and 98s and lose to everything else, so a bet seems -ev. If i check, he bets every J and 98s and checks behind everything else. Since i dont think he has JJ, JTs and 98 w/o diamond in his range too often, he would bet for value with 3 combos always (AJss, AJcc, KJdd) and may bluff with one combo (98dd). This brings me to the conclusion that i should check/call all bets up to halfpotsize and check/fold otherwise.
Please share your opinions on the ranges i put villain on and the conclusion i draw.