villain is 18/13/3 over 665 hands


1. is it full house/quads only (or like 90% of time)?
2. if he check river what amount are we betting? and do we call shove?


Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players - View hand 1287890
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $25.57
MP1: $9.84
MP2: $7.98
Hero (CO): $30.66
BTN: $25.85
SB: $13.48
BB: $26.48
UTG: $24.74

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is CO with A Q
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $0.75, 1 fold, MP2 calls $0.75, Hero calls $0.75, 3 folds

Flop: ($2.60) 8 J 4 (3 players)
UTG+1 bets $0.75, MP2 calls $0.75, Hero calls $0.75

Turn: ($4.85) K (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, MP2 bets $6.48 all in, Hero calls $6.48, UTG+1 calls $6.48

River: ($24.29) 4 (3 players - 1 is all in)
UTG+1 bets $17.59 all in, Hero folds

What's his EP PFR% btw?

He bet stupidly small OTF which makes it looks like a flush draw trying to cheaply price himself to see a turn, I don't think Jacks bet this small on this type of board either do 8s, especially with a fish in it.

Seems bad to check a fullhouse on a flush board OTT and risk it getting checked round.

There's only 10 combos of hands you're behind, but at the same time there's not many flushes in his range either with you have AQ and the J and K On the board. There's like 1 or 2 combos of flushes and that's only if he has a wide EP PFR% 910 and 89 and maybe a few more depending on above.

Do you think he would play KJ/KA like this?

If just KJs you only have around 23~ equity or so.

If he plays KA like this you have 54% equity against his range and need to call.

I don't think he plays KA like this but only you can know for sure.

I think this is a fold here, but I want to call.

i think it is more likely he bet with flushdraw/set this weak on flop then TPTK/overpair as there is higher chance he get cracked by some stupid hand which catch second pair on turn etc and i think he almost always b/r or c/r all in with flushes on turn as there are so many cards he wont like on river
he can c/c turn with two pairs but it is unlikely he is going to shove sudenly on river if he didnt catch a full

yeah i didnt look at his EP pfr thats a bit mistake as if he have something like 6-8% i can easily narrow his range to full house only

di0d80 - It'd be hard to see villain playing AK like this, but what about AA? When the board pairs, another two pair combination becomes counterfeited, possibly inducing the value shove from villain. With a range of AA, KK, JJ, 88, 44, 9Tss, 89ss, hero has 1/3 equity and must call. Any two pair or AK combos in his range only help. I think it's a crying call.

Out of curiosity, what are MP2's stats? This decision is borderline enough that MP2's likely holdings may affect your odds just enough, or possibly change villain's actions slightly.

MP2 is 40/11 whale

Studmuffino: well AA can be in his shoving range on river but i rly doubt he have any flushes there, so his range is something like AA,KK,JJ,88,44 in my opinion