Open Side Menu Go to the Top
Register
NL25: Top set, sizing line check NL25: Top set, sizing line check

09-14-2010 , 12:31 PM
Villain is 11/9 over 670 hands. 1.8 AF, 55% fold to cbet

$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG: $25.71
UTG+1: $26.20
UTG+2: $29.65
Hero (MP1): $25.00
MP2: $18.12
CO: $31.98
BTN: $25.22
SB: $23.75
BB: $22.62

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP1 with Q Q
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.85, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.85, 2 folds

Flop: ($2.05) 7 J Q (2 players)
Hero bets $1.50, BTN calls $1.50

Turn: ($5.05) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $3.50, BTN calls $3.50

River: ($12.05) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $8.50

I'm not sure about my river bet size here. I find that lately I am getting an extremely low number of calls in spots like this. So I am naturally assuming that I might be leaking in this area; river value bet sizing (and maybe even timing of my bets, not really sure).

If anyone can give me any advice on river bet sizing for value in general vs various player types or maybe a link to a good article about it, I'd really appreciate it. Thanks guys
NL25: Top set, sizing line check Quote
09-14-2010 , 12:40 PM
once he calls the turn he has something he feels is strong or a busted draw. of course the busted draw isn't going to call, but w/e he feels is strong probably will. Id fire for $9.8 (keeping it under the $10 threshold) on the river

article I wrote awhile back: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/78...-value-325157/

(also, i'd probably bet the turn a bit bigger for $3.9 which allows for a bigger bet on the river, and still gives him position+price on the draws he has)
NL25: Top set, sizing line check Quote
09-14-2010 , 12:43 PM
I may be wrong but I'm not even totally sure if betting is the right decision here as don't really see alot of hands that will call a bet now that wouldn't have raised earlier in the hand. I mean AA/KK is likely to 3bet pre, a smaller set or 2pair is likely to raise flop or turn given how wet the board is and you have 2 blockers to TP. I think alot of his range can be draws here that may bluff the river if you give them a chance and so checking may be a better option.
After typing this and re-reading the post I've realized that villain is pretty tight passive but I still think some of it may apply.
Given all the action, if you wanted to bet river I would say around half pot since the villain has shown no strength and so is unlikely to pay off a big bet.
NL25: Top set, sizing line check Quote

      
m