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NL25 somewhat marginal spot with AQo NL25 somewhat marginal spot with AQo

09-13-2010 , 08:46 PM
Villain is running 15/10/2.2 over 4k hands. He folds to flop cbets 60% of the time and calls PFR in LP 9% of the time.

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: $34.55
BB: $19.41
UTG: $26.24
UTG+1: $25.70
Hero (MP1): $25.00
MP2: $25.70
CO: $25.00
BTN: $25.00

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP1 with Q A
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.10, 2 folds, BTN calls $1.10, 3 folds

Flop: ($2.80) Q K T (2 players)
Hero bets $1.44, BTN calls $1.44

Turn: ($5.68) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50

River: ($10.68) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

Flop might be a little low but I figured that I hardly getting bluffed here. A hand like QJ/JT will call me down for sure. Or do we only c/call the flop and give up on the turn OOP unimproved?

Turn might be a leak in my game cause I tend to c/call in these spots a lot. But a 15/10 kinda straightforward player doesnt bet QJ/JT or AQ in these spots so I guess I just have to give up here, right?
NL25 somewhat marginal spot with AQo Quote
09-13-2010 , 08:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Messenjupp
Villain is running 15/10/2.2 over 4k hands. He folds to flop cbets 60% of the time and calls PFR in LP 9% of the time.

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: $34.55
BB: $19.41
UTG: $26.24
UTG+1: $25.70
Hero (MP1): $25.00
MP2: $25.70
CO: $25.00
BTN: $25.00

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP1 with Q A
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.10, 2 folds, BTN calls $1.10, 3 folds

Flop: ($2.80) Q K T (2 players)
Hero bets $1.44, BTN calls $1.44

Turn: ($5.68) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50

River: ($10.68) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

Flop might be a little low but I figured that I hardly getting bluffed here. A hand like QJ/JT will call me down for sure. Or do we only c/call the flop and give up on the turn OOP unimproved?

Turn might be a leak in my game cause I tend to c/call in these spots a lot. But a 15/10 kinda straightforward player doesnt bet QJ/JT or AQ in these spots so I guess I just have to give up here, right?
well i'd barrel turn aswell because as u said people will call u down with KJ,JT,QJ,.. I'd just go with b/b/check

checking turn also induces a lot of hands to start stabbing at the pot which makes your spot even harder because now you will probably have to fold because raising isn't the best EV decision and if we just call and villain stabs for 1/2, 2/3 pot OTR we're pretty much lost.
NL25 somewhat marginal spot with AQo Quote
09-13-2010 , 09:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Messenjupp
Villain is running 15/10/2.2 over 4k hands. He folds to flop cbets 60% of the time and calls PFR in LP 9% of the time.

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: $34.55
BB: $19.41
UTG: $26.24
UTG+1: $25.70
Hero (MP1): $25.00
MP2: $25.70
CO: $25.00
BTN: $25.00

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is MP1 with Q A
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1.10, 2 folds, BTN calls $1.10, 3 folds

Flop: ($2.80) Q K T (2 players)
Hero bets $1.44, BTN calls $1.44

Turn: ($5.68) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $2.50, Hero calls $2.50

River: ($10.68) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

Flop might be a little low but I figured that I hardly getting bluffed here. A hand like QJ/JT will call me down for sure. Or do we only c/call the flop and give up on the turn OOP unimproved?

Turn might be a leak in my game cause I tend to c/call in these spots a lot. But a 15/10 kinda straightforward player doesnt bet QJ/JT or AQ in these spots so I guess I just have to give up here, right?
I hate these spots because I never know what to do. Split? Mpethy? Help?
NL25 somewhat marginal spot with AQo Quote
09-13-2010 , 09:21 PM
Why did you 3b vs a tight opener in UTG+1?
After doing though so I probably fire twice and check river behind.
NL25 somewhat marginal spot with AQo Quote
09-13-2010 , 09:28 PM
i bet you that if you bet larger on the flop the turn goes check/check unless he has two pair or better by the turn, the original flop bet looks 100% like a missed continuation bet and then he bets half pot on the turn either to float or protect his weak king or whatever he had but it wasnt for value hence if you bet large on the flop he probably is checking the turn and maybe even checking the river as well whether your ahead or behind... i wouldnt be afraid to bet 70-75% of the pot on the flop either cause you still have possibly 10 outs to improve to the best hand
NL25 somewhat marginal spot with AQo Quote
09-13-2010 , 09:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lx12
I hate these spots because I never know what to do. Split? Mpethy? Help?
Or Alex... would be great :-)

The more I think about this spot the more it sucks IMO. I mean I dont think this type of villain floats us on this board like ever and we also never get raised as a bluff here so folding vs. a raise from villain on the flop is super easy.

The problem IMO is that we either fold out all worse hands that we are way ahead like 99-22/87s and also maybe AT or that we get called by hands that have great- decent equity against us like AK/KJ/QJ/JT (he 3bets AA/KK most of the time pre and raises KQ/KT/QT/QQ/TT on the flop and probably AJ too cause he has to be afraid of us having a set and he also wants us to pay to draw for a split with a hand like AK).

Using pokerstove I came up with these numbers....

Board: Kc Qs Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 42.344% 40.00% 02.35% 16235 952.50 { AhQc }
Hand 1: 57.656% 55.31% 02.35% 22450 952.50 { AKs, KJs, QJs, JTs, AKo, KJo, QJo, JTo }

Since I cant see him having KJo, QJo and JTo here all that often a more narrow range might be

Board: Kc Qs Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.554% 26.75% 04.80% 4502 808.50 { AhQc }
Hand 1: 68.446% 63.64% 04.80% 10711 808.50 { AKs, KJs, QJs, JTs, AKo }

So we are OOP and equity wise in really bad shape. So in a vacuum I might even be inclined to give up on the flop in these spots assuming villain will rarely bluff cause otherwise I'm puttin in money in the pot OOP and play a guessing game all the way.

One reason for betting here might be to kinda "balance" our range in times we might have a strong hand and therefore making sure to get paid off with AK/KJ... but on the other side...it's NL25 and we have no reason to balance anything.
NL25 somewhat marginal spot with AQo Quote
09-13-2010 , 09:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wannyn
Why did you 3b vs a tight opener in UTG+1?
After doing though so I probably fire twice and check river behind.
Amazing what you see that isnt there ;-)

1. I isod a limper...cant see a 3bet pre
2. How do you know UTG+1 was a tight player?
NL25 somewhat marginal spot with AQo Quote
09-13-2010 , 09:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Messenjupp
Amazing what you see that isnt there ;-)

1. I isod a limper...cant see a 3bet pre
2. How do you know UTG+1 was a tight player?
yeah I have issues with skimming over HHs and not reading them properly it seems. Sorry about that I will change my ways.

Makes it a way trickier spot too. I'd probably play it similar to you tbh.
NL25 somewhat marginal spot with AQo Quote

      
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