NL25 shove or check AA on the river?
11-14-2012
, 01:28 PM
Party, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #14579391
CO: $27.88 (111.5 bb)
BTN: $14.91 (59.6 bb)
Hero (UTG): $30.43 (121.7 bb)
MP: $25.82 (103.3 bb)
SB: $26.24 (105 bb)
BB: $25.47 (101.9 bb)
Preflop: Hero is UTG with A
A
Hero raises to $0.75, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.75, 2 folds
Flop: ($1.85) 7
2
8 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.25, BTN calls $1.25
Turn: ($4.35) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $3.60, BTN calls $3.60
River: ($11.55) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $10.98 (effectively all-in)
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #14579391
CO: $27.88 (111.5 bb)
BTN: $14.91 (59.6 bb)
Hero (UTG): $30.43 (121.7 bb)
MP: $25.82 (103.3 bb)
SB: $26.24 (105 bb)
BB: $25.47 (101.9 bb)
Preflop: Hero is UTG with A
AHero raises to $0.75, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.75, 2 folds
Flop: ($1.85) 7
2 8 (2 players)Hero bets $1.25, BTN calls $1.25
Turn: ($4.35) 4
(2 players)Hero bets $3.60, BTN calls $3.60
River: ($11.55) 8
(2 players)Hero bets $10.98 (effectively all-in)
Villain is 63/8 passive fish. I figured that by default villain is as likely to call flop with a 7 as with an 8. And once the 2nd 8 hits, it's obviously a bad card for us, but still there should be more 7's in his range (more combos obv). Also villain has 99-JJ and maybe higher there too.
What I was wondering though that how often should we assume villain to look us up with a 7 here? Because if villain can find a fold with his 7x here this shove becomes unprofitable. So do we assume he calls that or that he probably just calls with 8x and overpairs?
11-14-2012
, 01:31 PM
