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NL25 shove or check AA on the river? NL25 shove or check AA on the river?

11-14-2012 , 01:28 PM
    Party, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #14579391

    CO: $27.88 (111.5 bb)
    BTN: $14.91 (59.6 bb)
    Hero (UTG): $30.43 (121.7 bb)
    MP: $25.82 (103.3 bb)
    SB: $26.24 (105 bb)
    BB: $25.47 (101.9 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is UTG with A A
    Hero raises to $0.75, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.75, 2 folds

    Flop: ($1.85) 7 2 8 (2 players)
    Hero bets $1.25, BTN calls $1.25

    Turn: ($4.35) 4 (2 players)
    Hero bets $3.60, BTN calls $3.60

    River: ($11.55) 8 (2 players)
    Hero bets $10.98 (effectively all-in)




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    Villain is 63/8 passive fish. I figured that by default villain is as likely to call flop with a 7 as with an 8. And once the 2nd 8 hits, it's obviously a bad card for us, but still there should be more 7's in his range (more combos obv). Also villain has 99-JJ and maybe higher there too.

    What I was wondering though that how often should we assume villain to look us up with a 7 here? Because if villain can find a fold with his 7x here this shove becomes unprofitable. So do we assume he calls that or that he probably just calls with 8x and overpairs?
    NL25 shove or check AA on the river? Quote
    11-14-2012 , 01:31 PM
    id bet flop bigger and turn bigger, river is trivial shove. nh

    Quote:
    What I was wondering though that how often should we assume villain to look us up with a 7 here? Because if villain can find a fold with his 7x here this shove becomes unprofitable. So do we assume he calls that or that he probably just calls with 8x and overpairs?
    sometimes they will call with 7x, it just depends on the fish they all have differnt mindsets. another option could to be check snap the river given s8 draws missed and they may even turn 7x into a bluff sometimes, you know how fish are.
    NL25 shove or check AA on the river? Quote
    11-14-2012 , 01:32 PM
    I like your sizing, WP.
    NL25 shove or check AA on the river? Quote
    11-14-2012 , 02:39 PM
    Checking the river would be terrible. Thank God you didn't.
    NL25 shove or check AA on the river? Quote

          
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