Villain is an 8/8 reg over a few k hands. (25NL regs will know who I'm talkin bout I think) 5% 3b from the BB, but we've had a few battles in the past (not yet today though) I'm sure he's wider than 5% here given we're short handed & I've been stealing a lot as It's been short handed for a while & the table is tight.
I expect him to fold to a 4b here a lot & if I was bluffing I would've 4b him, so he has a good few bluffs in his range.
I see lots of Ax & broadways in his 3betting range I think. Cause he rarely flats from the BB (1%)
His cb in 3b pot is 55% so he has something when he cbets the flop. AJ/JK/QQ, fd, A5/A4 too maybe. JJ beats me, 55/44 beat me.

I'm betting the turn for value from a random pair+ draw/QQ/Jx that have gone into pot control mode. Also he might flat A5/A4 with the gut shot.
I reallllllly didn't think he had a c/r range ott, I thought he'd be barrelling Q/Jx/AK/AQ cause he shouldn't be expecting me to bluff in this spot at all. (Most of our history is pre flop) I guess he'll see me as either having KJ/AJ here cause I think he'd think I'd 4b QQ+ (could be giving too much credit here)
Also I think I could've went a tad bigger ott, like $6 to target the slighty better parts of his range that I beat like Jx/QQ

As played standard fold? (very unsure but his sizing was screaming value!) I thought there was a chance I could induce him here btw so I had been planning on snapping a chk/jam, wishful thinking?



Thanks all!

Tough spot, all the sets are in his range, several flushes.

I would raise/get in OTF vs this villain.

I don't mind folding the turn to the x/r.

Is it cause you think he'll raise/call fd's, Jx/QQ? And cause of his low flop cb?

Is this learnfriend?

[edit] I take it back, Im looking at learnfriends notes, and I have seen him get bluffy on scary boards, but mostly on the flop. He's probably fairly honest here on the turn, given what's left behind. He does have a diluted range in 4b/5b pots, but I don't know if you knew that.

I think my "trappy like he's playing against a fish, even against a reg" idea still stands(from before my edit).

just 4b/c pre if you don't have a reason not to

I don't have a big reason not to, it's just I think it's possibly more +EV to flat the 3b. But given our history I was probly a lil greedy pre tbh. As play just bail I'm guessing.

@Jolly, I pm'd you his name sir.

idk i'd have a really hard time folding KK in a 3bet pot 4 handed ever

As did I sir , if he chk jammed I was snapping, but his raise size looks like such value.

my thoughts on the hand still stand.

4b pre imo. As played, I'm not letting it go here. I'm calling OTT or probably calling OTR. What do you think about checking back turn? You have a decent SDV, can still get some value OTR from worse hands.

I didn't see your post from before the edit!

Never checking back turn, going for thin value vs potential TT/Jx/random A/K Setting up for river shove too vs QQ & Jx that have gone into call down mode. Basically all the hands we get value from on the river we take value from on the turn plus additional hands that won't call a river bet (')

I'd like a 4xbb raise pre. I used to open 3bb as well, but switched to 4bb and I find that a lot less difficult spots like this one happen. So if you'd raise to 1$, he would have to 3bet to 3$ or at least 2,75$, which would make the pot 6,35$ going to the flop instead of 4,60$.

I also like a small 4bet preflop, easier to get it in and always better to win a small pot than lose a big one.

As played, turn is a fold imo. Baluga theorem is almost never wrong in my experience.

I mean as written after edit, even though it was for someone else.

4bet/call vs vinniepooh.. he has shoved j-10o into me b4 in similar spot .... n if he is chinese player i 4bet/call as well.... if he is bg something or odda i call n set mine or fold pre tbh cuz he literally 3bets AA only every position...

Just a few thoughts. He may bet himself OTR:
1. AK or any other bluff (I have no idea why people do that sometimes)
2. QQ
3. AJ
Besides, I don't like betting here not because it's not max value line (probably it is), but I dont want to get in spots like these when he raises. I mean, I'm happy with just one more bet and I prefer it on the river, no matter who makes the bet (if he - i call, if he checks again im betting).

Some serious pro style stuff...

Some serious pro style stuff.

Given your description of villain (having history n doesnt cb without something) looks like a pretty standard 4-bet preflop. I'd make a real small 4-bet.