Not sure about how I played this. I think turn is most questionable part but would like to hear how you guys play it. Villain is 19/13/5.5 over 67 hands:

On flop I felt I had to call to that bet.

On turn I felt I was usually behind but that he had a weak hand I could perhaps push him off. I raised so that it needed to work about 50% of the time... not sure if it does though. This is the street I'm pretty concerned about. If I shouldn't raise would you say fold > call here?

River: when he called I figured him for a weak jack at best. I don't think he has a flush draw with his weak cbet and when he bets as he does it feels like he wants a cheap showdown. I figured weak jacks that bet like that are probably intending to fold to shove so I bluffed. Do you think this is +EV as played? I need him to fold about 50% of the time or more for it to be good as he has $10.42 behind after his donk bet.

Thanks!

Call turn

I don't think a jack is never ever folding and I don't get why we raise turn, and therefore river.

What are we expecting him to bet OTT if we want to call that? What happens OTR are we looking for another 6? almost all cards on the deck are bad for us

He also might have set that up for you hoping that you would spew vs such a weak bet. Imo he isnt folding much that beats us here if anything.

dood u need to be aware of your range. you're turn raise just looks blah

I can see why you raised turn (possibly spew?), because prob you though he bet small and you wanted to take down the pot right there, thinking that he had a FD.

I would call turn, and call river if it isn't a club, or a high card, and if he doesn't bet big (eg pot sized bet), then yes, I would call river as well. Betting OTT, he's never gonna call with worse.

Call the turn and call most rivers too.

I think when I see villains make weird donkish bets I tend to peg them as not very good and then I stop worrying about how accurately they perceive my range. To be honest I probably would raise AJ, QQ on the turn here instead of the flop but yeah I wouldn't play like this if I thought villain was good but then Iw ouldn't expect to be in this situation against a good villain... this is exploitable of course and I have definitely been owned by people inducing me like this.

@dillchips: Nah I didn't think he had FD I thought he had weak top pair or maybe 77-TT... thought he was weak on river but it's just whether he's still going to call me or not. I think to a weak handreader the flush hitting is going to scare him and I think I can have it sometimes (although not that often).

his obv. a fish and worrying about how he perceives our range or how our range looks on the turn is laughable.

fish spazz on two-tone boards (especially nit fish) with trips/tpgk etc and would betsize much bigger, which means alot of his range is just draws trying to see a cheap card or trying to get to showdown with 55-TT and even AK/AQ some

A2s+
KTs+
QTs+
JTs = 16 combo's of flushdraws (discounting 6c and 4c)
JJ
44
AK/AQ
55-TT = 58 combos

(this just assumes fish will betsize bigger with overpairs/TPGK etc. his range can be wider and fish do dumb **** so i wouldnt hold your breathe on my estimation)

so why calling > raising turn is better, we can get to a cheap showdown with decent sdv and take notes on him + we basically are just ahead or way behind his range (with little reads we have) so bloating the pot up for a guessing game otr is bad. with greater reads on fish we might be able to make a case for raising turn.

the problem i have with this hand is that your not raising turn for value but as a bluff i find it very hard to see villian folding 50% of the time and your jam otr is terrible, with villians betsizing increased and half his range getting there otr your jam is obv spew.

call pre, call flop, call turn, fold river.

Yeah... this is not a consideration against this player type.