villain is straightfwd player = preflop TAG, postflop passive

27/15 over 800 hands
UTG RFI = 22%
3b%=4, fold to 3bet=60%
cb f/t/r = 40/60/30
fcb f/t/r= 55/40/60


*************

just fold

Cbet smaller.

Turn should be a call given pot odds.

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can't really fold now

Pot odds are a little under 2:1 we have been good a little over 33%.
Dunno how much weight my word has considering these stakes are well above my pay grade (unfortunately) but if the player isn't some gto super star are we really expecting him to not have a T enough of the time (or some other hand that could be beating us) when he check jams turn?
Seems overly optimistic and even then on the assumption of just about breaking even.
Among the player pool on my site/app I'd fold unless I know they're a complete maniac or a complete spew fish whale which, to be fair where I'm playing at the moment there's quite a few and it's good money just smashing them for value.
Any play like this from my player pool even from just the regular whales indicate strength but again my micro player pool, different player tendencies...
Anyway, digressing.

Back to pot odds...
Would folding really be terrible? I mentioned this before elsewhere but we keep saying pot odds and I keep seeing the worst pots we can ever get short of over shoving into a small pot with a huge stack.
In which case we'll always have pot odds to call anything (yes I know hyperbole but you catch my drift).

ya my mind voice was screaming fold, fold and baluga theorem - pretty much what gunblade said

pot odds are 28% - I figured we should easily have 25% here

my thought process during time bank

• This guy would slowplay and trap with nuts.
• There is no urgency for a Tx/nuts to shove on that board
• Why would he shove when he can string me along till river and get all the money in , He runs the risk of me folding to his shove
• So this is a scared shove - he wants me to fold - SO I CALLED

Why did you 3 bet to 4x in these positions? That's insanely huge

vs 2.5x i do 4x 3bet

most of these bad preflop TAGfish vary their opens as per their hand strength

ok so, scratch the background noise, it's bad practice to base your decisions on speculation

all you need to think about is

how many combos do I lose to that are possible (taking into account pre and flop action)
do I have re-draws vs these
how many worse combos does he have to use in conjunction with his value range (to make my bluff catchers indifferent)
what's my equity vs those
pot odds
and only then reliable reads/notes on v

once you play around with ranges and math behind low spr spots, you'l start realizing that oop has to be bluffing close to never here for you to want to fold a hand as strong as this. throw in a bit of badly played stuff you do well against and a bit of spazz (since you don't really know the guy) and draw a conclusion.

an easier way to look at bluff catching spots is to roughly ballpark the number of combos you lose to, if that number is small, he is only allowed an even smaller number of worse hands, so it's easy for a human being to go over the line. if he had 20-25 combos of nutty hands, he's less likely to come up with enough bluffs to entice you into calling.

btw, he would be correct to jam most of his Tx in this spot, because you'd have to defend wider when spr is low and because he doesn't mind some protection vs your gutshots and fds

Hmm?
Did I get something wrong here?
You bet turn making the pot 1602.85
He ships for 1947.93
You have him covered so you have to call 1947.93 into 3576.78.
Making it 1.8 to 1 which means you have to be 35% right?

final pot will be 4965 and hero needs to call off 1414.22. 1414.22/4965.

thank you for the detailed response

OTT

combos I lose to : TT,KT,KK,22,JTs,QTs,AT + AA = ~20
combos I tie : AK = 6
combos I win : JJ-QQ, Ad2d-AdQd ~ 22

I have ~50% vs this range - pot odds - 28% - so call is ok?

Don't isolate yourself against a strong range by betting 50% twice

Ah **** I see what I did wrong, complete school boy error.
Dub doesn't call off 1947, he doesn't have that after his turn bet.

+1
I could have checked back and gone to showdown cheaply

ya I think flop 50% is ok, turn not so much, you should be looking to check back tp on a T or bet smaller, more in tune with the strength of your hand

Call as played.

I would 3bet smaller. Also XB turn sometimes.

the ten on the turn isn't such a big scardcard imo. Would hit villain harder if board was like KJxJ.