Villain is a 30/15/4.0 over 20 hands. No other meaningful stats. It's NL25 rush.

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter By DeucesCracked Poker Videos

Hero (BTN): $127.66
SB: $8.95
BB: $18.14
UTG: $25.83
UTG+1: $51.41
UTG+2: $25.00
MP1: $13.01
MP2: $25.45
CO: $20.00

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with K K
5 folds, CO raises to $0.75, Hero raises to $2.25, 2 folds, CO calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.85) 9 8 6 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $3, CO calls $3

Turn: ($10.85) 5 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks

River: ($10.85) 3 (2 players)
CO bets $5.52, Hero calls $5.52

Basically only two questions:
1. Do we bet the turn?
I decided not to cause I dont see him calling with worse expect maybe QQ-TT or T9 but thats about it. Is this enough on this kinda board? Cause most of this hands draw very slim anyways.
2. We are a station if we call this off here right? Or is the price just good enough to pick up kind of a bluff from hands like TT/T9 cause villain figured he can only win if he bets cause my hand looks either like AK (which he beats anyways) or a scared overpair that he likes to fold out. Guess that to much interpretaition at NL25 right? Just fold?

Thanks for the help.

no one :-(

I'm calling that river, but I'm a station.

I fold, call if i have better reads.

1. No - good check.
2. River - I don't think villain bets something like TT or T9 here. I'd say maybe JTs is the only bluff i can see. It could also be a thin value bet - like a set. There aren't too many combos of 7s except for 77 and possibly suited connectors (though unlikely villain calls that OOP?) Probably a fold.

We need to win a little less than 30% of the time to break even here.

Against what I think is a pretty solid Villain range of {77-AA}, we're exactly 50%. Even if you toss in ace-seven, eight-seven and seven-six suited, that only drops us to 39%, before we consider that if he can call seven-six, he can call nine-eight too.

That presumes that he always bets his losing hands (QQ-TT), which he pretty much does imo (it's a blockbet) and also that he shows up with like QQ-JJ as often as 99-88 (iffier but not too far off).

Can't justify folding here given the pot odds, pretty easy call. If he'd donked full pot I would fold, but his donking half pot both makes his range weaker and gives us better odds to call imo.

You are kinda spot on here. Thanks....and by the way...villain showed up with 98o which was pretty suprising but I made a note of course.

As played I definitely call river

why not b/f turn? Its the last bet your putting into the pot either way, so might as well do it yourself. Thats my preference anyway, not to say i am diagreeing with your line.

If CO leads blank river following your solid aggression he has KK beat anyway. And the times he has a lesser overpair you get less value if it checks through to river.

I respect a lot of your posts. Just got one question because it's bothering me.

Don't we need to win closer to 1/3rd or 33% of time rather than less than 30% of time to break even? Is my math off here and till this day I still get this stuff confused.

We call $5.52 to win $16.57. That's like 33% no?

Or should I be looking at it as, we call $5.52 to win a total pot of $21.89? Which is more like 25%.


Either it's a call to me on the river too. Checking the turn, definitely opened up his range. He could easily bet with overs and a small % of bluffs enough times to call.