Villain is 11/9/4,7 over 1,3k hands

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($21.82)
SB ($9.69)
Hero (BB) ($25)
UTG ($15.10)
UTG+1 ($26.23)
MP1 ($10.59)
MP2 ($9.20)
CO ($31)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J, J
1 fold, UTG+1 bets $0.75, MP1 calls $0.75, 4 folds, Hero raises $3, UTG+1 calls $2.25, 1 fold

Flop: ($6.85) 2, 9, 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets $4, Hero calls $4

Turn: ($14.85) A (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks

River: ($14.85) 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $9


The 3-bet pre is obviously bad, I realized it right after I clicked the button. His range there is very strong, probably something like JJ+, AK. I decide to check-call flop and check-fold turn, because he might also try to take the pot down there with AK, maybe he can even have TT and valuebet that.
The turn is an ace, which is a very interesting card. If he had QQ or KK, he is now scared of the ace and might fold to a bet, but if he had AK and was trying to take the pot down, he just got there. I check, which is a little weak, but he plays very fit and fold, so I think he would never turn his QQ or KK into a buff here. He checks back, river bricks and I decide to turn my JJ into a bluff trying to get him down of QQ or KK which I put him on. Thoughts?

You didn't 3bet pre

Alright, I squeezed. Nit.

personally like flatting pre

as played I'd lead flop

as k40 said, flat pre, once you squeeze, this is the best flop you could ask for, without a J. cbet it.

But what do you think about turning JJ into a bluff on the river?

I don't know if I like bluffing on this board.. I'd probably give up. He's calling with KK+ I believe and if he has an A he's also calling. I think this is the majority of his range anyway unless he raises UTG AND calls 3bets light. So personally, I don't turn this into a bluff

we have SDV and villain is checking back a lot here. don't like bluffing too much
plus the story we're telling is not that good. we 3bet pre + c/call flop + check on a turn ace + bet river.

Agree with flatting pre for setmining or flop an overpair as u actually did..

Just wanted to add, that if i was villian in this spot i would def. look you up on that riverbet, if i was holding KK QQ .....

Because yoy checked when the A hit.... :-)

Think that the thought process behind the river bluff is fine and you probably have a good estimate of his range after he checks back the turn.

Obv you don't really rep much (you are never gonna have an Ax hand once you c/c that flop) and any thinking player could see that but as this guy's pretty nitty I think you can assume he's not really gonna hand read.

Only problem is everyone at 25nl is a station and he will call you there with KK/QQ just because he wants to make you hate life.

I know this seems nitty, but if villain has a low c-bet% he won't have c-bet this flop with worse than 10s, so I would just fold flop. If villain has high c-bet% I will call the flop and fold most turns.

If you don't think he has an Ace and is likely to fold, you would need to bet turn and river imo, as he's isn't folding QQ+ when you just bet river.

Problem with this is stack-sizes; pot is $15 OTT with only $18 behind. If you bet turn and he calls, he's pretty much always calling river because of PSR.

Whoops yah forgot about this, but I like my line if this was a regular sized pot.

Your squeeze pre is bad for reasons you listed above and you should have been set mining. It's highly unlikely a nit is donking into your 3-bet with AK or even calling pre with AK is even more unlikely.

He's donking this with QQ, and I just don't like trying to get nits off hands with SPRs this low, so you should have folded flop.

You MIGHT be able to get him off his hand by betting turn and shoving river as I see little to no Aces in his range, but I just don't like doing it in 3-bet pots.

You wouldn't check call AK on that flop as PF 3bettor. He probably doesn't always pick that up but he sometimes will+sometimes he has the AK and sometimes when he is a little tilted or w/e he might even call KK there(Myb not).

But overall this is a bad spot to turn it into a bluff, sometimes you gotta give the pot up.