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NL25: JJ vs a fish

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06-15-2014 , 02:30 PM

#76

DaycareInferno

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 18,285

Here is my best guess to villain's pf calling range. It's about a 27% range with very few hands taken out for 3betting. I'd expect our villain to be not as loose as vs. a normal open, but still probably somewhat fishy.

TT-22,AdAh,QdQh,QdQs,QdQc,JdJh,JdJs,JhJs,JdJc,JhJc,AQ s-A2s,K2s+,Q8s+,J7s+,T7s+,96s+,86s+,75s+,64s+,54s,Ah Kh,AsKs,AcKc,AQo-ATo,KTo+,QTo+,JTo,AdKh,AdKs,AdKc,AhKd,AhKs,AsKd,As Kh,AcKd,AcKh,AcKs

That's something to start with.

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06-15-2014 , 02:56 PM

#77

ForeverLearning

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 12,006

Depends what you mean by good, it's impossible for shoving to be -EV under reasonable assumption.

If we have 27% equity when called and 0 FE then it would be -EV. I can't guarantee it's better than other options because I can't calculate anything without making assumptions which I'm not going to make.

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06-15-2014 , 03:04 PM

#78

ForeverLearning

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 12,006

Seems like too much work for a really unaccurate result, it's hard to tell what this guy will do with the different parts of his range.

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06-15-2014 , 03:06 PM

#79

DaycareInferno

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 18,285

Whether it's -EV or not means absolutely nothing since we already know that checking is greatly +EV.

When you say that you're unwilling to make assumptions, that's just code for being too lazy to work through a hand. If people spent more time doing this sort of thing, their quick guesswork while playing would be much much better and there would be many less situations where we just say **** it and do something because we don't know. How could anyone possibly expect to get better at this type of thing in real time without accumulating some experience with it while not playing?

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06-15-2014 , 03:14 PM

#80

ForeverLearning

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 12,006

I believe our findings will not be useful. The process is interesting and I've already done it, just not for this hand. If you do it, you'll find yourself making a lot of assumptions which are bound to be inaccurate given how little info you have on the fish.

oh and I agree that shoving being +EV means nothing.

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06-15-2014 , 03:30 PM

#81

DaycareInferno

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 18,285

Well if you think that your best possible estimates after thoroughly analyzing a hand vs. some station fish will be too inaccurate to be useful, then I guess that means that exploitative hand analysis in general will usually be quite useless since the vast majority of players won't be any more predicable than this guy. That works out quite conveniently.

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06-15-2014 , 04:00 PM

#82

ForeverLearning

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 12,006

Depends where the analysis starts. Rivers analysis are much less complicated.

And having more than 26 hands on the guy would help regarding the quality of our assumptions.

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