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NL25: Interesting spot with a rivered full house 140bb deep (with some wannabe combo analysis) NL25: Interesting spot with a rivered full house 140bb deep (with some wannabe combo analysis)

10-16-2010 , 09:54 PM
Ok guys...my last hand for today ;-)

Again it's NL25 rush and villain seems pretty aggressive (at least pre so far) running 31/27/1.8 over 26 hands. He has not folded to the one cbet he faced so far cause he made a float on the turn (according to PT3).

Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter By DeucesCracked Poker Videos

MP1: $8.82
MP2: $83.15
CO: $13.90
BTN: $32.55
SB: $54.41
BB: $1.71
UTG: $27.95
UTG+1: $16.75
Hero (UTG+2): $35.49

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is UTG+2 with 6 6
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, MP1 calls $0.75, MP2 calls $0.75, 4 folds

Flop: ($2.60) 6 8 9 (3 players)
Hero bets $2.25, MP1 folds, MP2 calls $2.25

Turn: ($7.10) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $4.50, MP2 calls $4.50

River: ($16.10) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $16.10, Hero calls $16.10

Pre and Flop are standard...and I know....TURN IS TOO SMALL :-) so so far there is nothing to talk about. But what about the river?

Even after looking over the hand for a few minutes I cant decide which is the best play.

I divided his possible hands into four categories (as far as the numbers for the combos I only counted suited connectors):
1. Better hands (99/88/86/98) (7 combos)
2. Flushes AK/AQ/AJ/.....there are many (lets assume around 10)
3. Marginal weak hands like JT/67/87/77 (13 combos)
4. Overpairs TT-QQ (maybe only TT-JJ) (between 8-12 so lets say 10)

What is villain likely going to do:
1. He will bet (if checked to) and shove (if we bet) all better hands so c/calling is best.
2. Here it doesnt matter. He will bet if we check (cause our hand looks like a scared overpair) but will also call if we bet (cause he has a flush).
3. He will never call if we bet (except for 87 I guess) but maybe he will try to bluff some times if checked to.
4. He may call from time to time but will always check behind.

So all in all I think vs. the better hands and marginal hands c/calling is best vs. the flushes it doesnt matter and vs. his overpairs we should bet. According to these assumption c/calling seems best vs. the range I assigned him to.

Thoughts please.
NL25: Interesting spot with a rivered full house 140bb deep (with some wannabe combo analysis) Quote
10-16-2010 , 10:38 PM
I think you should check shove or bet/3bet. C/c is ridic nitty....when you have a hand this strong you should be targeting his flushes mainly and any 8x(the strongest parts of his range we beat). You missed tons of value here.

Last edited by OoLethaLoO; 10-16-2010 at 10:44 PM.
NL25: Interesting spot with a rivered full house 140bb deep (with some wannabe combo analysis) Quote
10-17-2010 , 11:27 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OoLethaLoO
I think you should check shove or bet/3bet. C/c is ridic nitty....when you have a hand this strong you should be targeting his flushes mainly and any 8x(the strongest parts of his range we beat). You missed tons of value here.
Not saying betting is bad at all....just wanna make sure...we have around $29 left and if we bet around $12.5 or so on the river we call it off and you expect to be good here all that often. Again..not saying it's bad...just wanna know from your experience cause we kinda have one of the worse boats here and I just cant see villain shoving with worse.
NL25: Interesting spot with a rivered full house 140bb deep (with some wannabe combo analysis) Quote
10-17-2010 , 12:16 PM
If you c/r he is never ever folding an 8 or a flush I promise you. If you bet he will raise flushes almost always and sometimes shove 8x. Also given the action, unless he is terrible he is not going to have a boat by the river often since 2pair hands and sets will want to be raising earlier in the hand on a pretty wet board. He will probably raise 86, 89 on the flop. You are beat super rarely here and flushes are a big part of his range so I would try to get the money in.
NL25: Interesting spot with a rivered full house 140bb deep (with some wannabe combo analysis) Quote
10-17-2010 , 12:20 PM
b/c river probably best... unless he's just been bombing with missed draws then crai... not getting in in here is suicide vs this guy.
NL25: Interesting spot with a rivered full house 140bb deep (with some wannabe combo analysis) Quote
10-17-2010 , 12:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OoLethaLoO
If you c/r he is never ever folding an 8 or a flush I promise you. If you bet he will raise flushes almost always and sometimes shove 8x. Also given the action, unless he is terrible he is not going to have a boat by the river often since 2pair hands and sets will want to be raising earlier in the hand on a pretty wet board. He will probably raise 86, 89 on the flop. You are beat super rarely here and flushes are a big part of his range so I would try to get the money in.
ok, thanks.

In hindsight I thought this too...that he would raise the hands that beat me very likely on the flop or turn. but I have to admit...this was the last hand of my session and I didnt want to lose my whole stack. kinda stupid...I know...have to work on that too.
NL25: Interesting spot with a rivered full house 140bb deep (with some wannabe combo analysis) Quote

      
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