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NL25 Interesting river spot NL25 Interesting river spot

04-03-2008 , 10:26 PM
Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

CO: $13.75
Hero (BTN): $26.60
SB: $28.80
BB: $14.70
UTG: $28.20
MP: $10.65

Pre Flop: Hero is BTN with K J
UTG calls $0.25, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, 1 fold, BB calls $1, UTG calls $1

Flop: ($3.85) Q Q 5 (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $2.75, BB folds, UTG calls $2.75

Turn: ($9.35) J (2 players)
UTG bets $3, Hero calls $3

River: ($15.35) 8 (2 players)
UTG bets $11, Hero ?

Villain has been playing pretty bad. He plays too many hands, donk-bet/folds a lot...not much else to say.

I think the line that he takes could mean one of two things and I have trouble deciding which.

1. He has a flush draw because he donk-bet the turn hoping to get to see the river for cheap, and when he missed, he is going to try and represent the queen. Perfect for my hand.

2. He is going to go for the stack-a-donk method of betting small on the turn to try not to scare me away, and then hopefully get a full pot-sized bet payed off on the river when he decides that I have something.

That said, do you make this call or is this still a fold?
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04-04-2008 , 12:10 AM
You said he donk-bet/folds a lot - what about a raise on the turn? Spewy?
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04-04-2008 , 12:11 AM
been there a 1000 times..flip a coin..who knows with these idoits..your getting 2.36 2 make the call.with that descrip of villian i'd prolly call.
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04-04-2008 , 12:14 AM
Raise on the turn isn't really going to accomplish anything because I actually have a hand that is ahead of his donk/fold range.
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04-04-2008 , 12:17 AM
I'd probably just fold here, you don't often see players making a small blocking bet with a flush draw than not either making another small bet or betting pot on the river when they miss. Calling for information really isn't horrible though.
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04-04-2008 , 12:24 AM
If the guy's playing that badly, I don't know that I'd necessarily put a great deal of logic into his plays. What I mean is that, you say it could mean one of two things, but there might be a third or fourth thing out there.

Playing one gap, unsuited broadways don't really excite me that much, even in position: I never know whether the flop that hits me is going result in a big win or a big loss (not good enough to work it out). Anyway, I'd fold here. I'm not going to put that much on the table given that the following hands beat you (I've ignored AA - JJ):

Qx
AJ
55
88
T9

What else does he limp UTG with and call a raise? I don't know, other smalls pairs, suited connectors down to T9, unsuited to (maybe) QJ. Some of those can be excluded given post flop play. The number of hands that beat you by the river, given the initial range is pretty high. I'd fold...
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04-04-2008 , 12:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jase
If the guy's playing that badly, I don't know that I'd necessarily put a great deal of logic into his plays. What I mean is that, you say it could mean one of two things, but there might be a third or fourth thing out there.

Playing one gap, unsuited broadways don't really excite me that much, even in position: I never know whether the flop that hits me is going result in a big win or a big loss (not good enough to work it out). Anyway, I'd fold here. I'm not going to put that much on the table given that the following hands beat you (I've ignored AA - JJ):

Qx
AJ
55
88
T9

What else does he limp UTG with and call a raise? I don't know, other smalls pairs, suited connectors down to T9, unsuited to (maybe) QJ. Some of those can be excluded given post flop play. The number of hands that beat you by the river, given the initial range is pretty high. I'd fold...
AJ and T9 are gone on the flop; we lose to a Q, 88, or 55. There are very few combinations of all of these hands and by the time we factor in missed flush draws or smaller pairs this is probably about even money. At worst I'd say we're only a litle bit -EV but we gain additional information and benefits to our image that will pay off in the long run.
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04-04-2008 , 12:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Saldirgan
AJ and T9 are gone on the flop; we lose to a Q, 88, or 55. There are very few combinations of all of these hands and by the time we factor in missed flush draws or smaller pairs this is probably about even money. At worst I'd say we're only a litle bit -EV but we gain additional information and benefits to our image that will pay off in the long run.
T9h and AJh aren't gone on the flop. Anyway, that's why I said some of those can be excluded post flop. 44bb is a lot to make up based on image if you're wrong. Who knows if this bad player (so we've been told) is even aware that much of image.
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04-04-2008 , 12:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jase
T9h and AJh aren't gone on the flop. Anyway, that's why I said some of those can be excluded post flop. 44bb is a lot to make up based on image if you're wrong. Who knows if this bad player (so we've been told) is even aware that much of image.
The rest of the table sees us call down second pair.
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04-04-2008 , 01:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Saldirgan
The rest of the table sees us call down second pair.
Judging by stack sizes nobody else at the table is paying any attention and your metagame considerations are flawed. I would fold, and I love to make loose calldowns.
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04-04-2008 , 09:50 AM
Meh, I call. I'm afraid of like a queen and T9. This kinda lame weaksauce bet on turn almost always screams "draw" to me. Flush draw didn't get there, one of the straight draws did. Let's find out.
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04-04-2008 , 09:59 AM
What hand here actually makes any sense?
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04-04-2008 , 02:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by boycalledroy
What hand here actually makes any sense?
AQ LDO. That's what he had. At the time, I had a little guy reaction that he was doing this with a made hand, I don't know why. But Leatherass says that in marginal spots like these, he always calls just so he can use the hand for studying purposes later on.
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04-04-2008 , 02:45 PM
Shove.
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04-04-2008 , 02:56 PM
Quote:
But Leatherass says that in marginal spots like these, he always calls just so he can use the hand for studying purposes later on.
I wouldn't consider this a marginal spot. 25NL guys usually don't bet big without the goods.
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04-04-2008 , 02:59 PM
looks like a offboard PP.
snap call river.
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04-04-2008 , 05:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wslee00
I wouldn't consider this a marginal spot. 25NL guys usually don't bet big without the goods.
I disagree.
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04-04-2008 , 06:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by iii
Shove.
theres some merit to this. looks like a poorly played pp.
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04-04-2008 , 06:49 PM
I'd call fwiw. I think he has a lot of flush draws and hands like A5 that are turning their hand into a bluff. Plus there is always the idiot factor at these limits. I don't expect to be right everytime, but certainly often enough to justify a call.
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