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NL25 getting 3betted, odds to setmine question NL25 getting 3betted, odds to setmine question

04-18-2008 , 03:48 AM
I know this isnt very interesting stuff and such, but

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

UTG+1: $15.90
UTG+2: $22.25
MP1: $25.70
MP2: $30.25
Hero (CO): $26.55
BTN: $31.65
SB: $9.50
BB: $24.90
UTG: $16.80

Pre-Flop: 8 8 dealt to Hero (CO)
5 folds, Hero raises to $1, BTN raises to $3.25

Do i have odds to setmine? Just realized beeing in the hand i had no clue about this question

so call or fold?

Last edited by airscape; 04-18-2008 at 03:54 AM.
NL25 getting 3betted, odds to setmine question Quote
04-18-2008 , 04:13 AM
Well, do the maths.

If you call you will have 23.5 left. Costs you 2.25 to call. So you are getting roughly 10-1 implied odds, plus pot odds. I think its about 8-1 to hit your set, but I think they say you need about 10-1 because you won't get action every time.

So IMO you should call. Interested to see other opinions.
NL25 getting 3betted, odds to setmine question Quote
04-18-2008 , 07:01 AM
Usually the guideline is about 1/10th of the (remaining) stacks should be fine for setmining. (Since you will hit a set about 1 in 8 times or so but win with it 1 in 10) which is what I used to use...

But considering the fact that you don't always win with your set (and in those cases you can lose a lot) or don't necessarily get a lot of action on your sets taking it more carefull might be the better option. Saw in another thread that 1:15th is more realistic and I think I'll go with that one from now on.

Then again, he 3bet you which indicates a (very) strong hand which could give quite some action on the rest of the hand... so perhaps 1;10 is good here.

(Also fed by the fact that I got dealt 25 pp yesterday, hit just 1 set and especially the lower pp are quite useless if you don't hit so in the end I spent quite some bb for the setmining odds and hardly made anything with it... Especially cases like the one above, you raise with your medium pp, get reraised and calling is just for setmining but the call costs quite a bit)

Last edited by dagrim1; 04-18-2008 at 07:18 AM.
NL25 getting 3betted, odds to setmine question Quote
04-18-2008 , 07:36 AM
Button might think you are stealing therefore he might raise you just to re-steal if he has reads on you (He might do it w/ AQ-AK maybe).
If you know that button might make such a move if you raise from CO then i wouldn't raise but try to see a cheap flop- do you want to setmine that costs you 0.25 or that costs you about ten times as much ? I think in terms of purely setmining you should fold. But as i mentioned before- when he is restealing and you are quite confident about his range (lets say AT-AK, maybe even any Ax)then you might see the flop and take it from there- it means you have to play postflop. Thats my thoughtprocess.
Is he is the type of opponent that goes AI with his KK/AA no matter what the flop ? In that case setmine definitely, if he is solid then i would def fold.
NL25 getting 3betted, odds to setmine question Quote
04-18-2008 , 11:36 AM
yes call for a set
NL25 getting 3betted, odds to setmine question Quote
04-18-2008 , 12:00 PM
Any reads on Villain? Will he 3-bet light in this spot? Will he float with A-high if you lead a safe flop? Will he stack off with an overpair?

IMO, this is 100% read-dependent because I don't think set-mining odds are there except against someone who can never ever fold an overpair.
NL25 getting 3betted, odds to setmine question Quote
04-18-2008 , 03:15 PM
Im a bit tired so I wont go into the maths but if you are calling for set value this wont work.
OOP without reads sucks pretty bad for the situation, Id guess an unknown NL25 3-bets fairly narrow so I doubt you are ever ahead.
Trying to get him off TT,JJ,QQ underpairs on an A/K high flop may take two barrels, getting him off AK when he misses is easier but thats not enough I think.

So if the plan is setmine then fit or fold, might as well fold now.
Calling isnt a huge spew but it wont show a profit long term.

Quote:
IMO, this is 100% read-dependent because I don't think set-mining odds are there except against someone who can never ever fold an overpair.
Yeah, reads would be cool I think you could assume that overpairs stack off in a 3-bet pot pretty much all the time.
Im more concerned about set over set or KK/QQ/JJ/TT folding an A high flop when you get frisky with your set.
NL25 getting 3betted, odds to setmine question Quote
04-18-2008 , 03:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sounded Simple
Im a bit tired so I wont go into the maths but if you are calling for set value this wont work.
OOP without reads sucks pretty bad for the situation, Id guess an unknown NL25 3-bets fairly narrow so I doubt you are ever ahead.
Trying to get him off TT,JJ,QQ underpairs on an A/K high flop may take two barrels, getting him off AK when he misses is easier but thats not enough I think.

So if the plan is setmine then fit or fold, might as well fold now.
Calling isnt a huge spew but it wont show a profit long term.



Yeah, reads would be cool I think you could assume that overpairs stack off in a 3-bet pot pretty much all the time.
Im more concerned about set over set or KK/QQ/JJ/TT folding an A high flop when you get frisky with your set.
+1 OOP + he could be raising a little light on the button + 10:1 = fold
NL25 getting 3betted, odds to setmine question Quote
04-18-2008 , 03:49 PM
I fold here, i generally play small/medium pp in a multiway pot. 1-1, u will loose more than (chasing on a board of 2,5,7) u make. And he has 3b u preflop.
NL25 getting 3betted, odds to setmine question Quote
04-19-2008 , 03:15 AM
i put him on JJ+, AK wich means i will never continue in the hand when he cbets here. he might cbet me out with ak and i will definitely not float to see if he slows down and doesnt hit his a or k on the turn or river. and im neither gonna try and get fancy to bluff out his qq/jj on an k or a high board. so if i were to call here it would be 100% for setmining. this was my read on the guy in the hand, thats why i asked if i could call for setmining value only. (in fact i had very limited reads on the guy... so im taking my general nl25 reads wich is they dont 3bet light)

there is many things that can happen that will make you not take his stack or lose the hand when you hit your set.

* i might hit the set, we play for stacks vs his overpair, and he sucks out on me
* i might hit the set, but he hits a higher set with AA KK QQ JJ
* i might hit the set but there is an Ace King or Queen on board wich will make him NOT stack off with JJ QQ KK when there is a higher card on board
*i might hit the set, but he is sitting there with AK, doesnt hit the flop, and instafolds for my donkbet or cbet-folds for my checkraise

considering this i think the assumption that you need more than 1:10, maybe 1:15 in implied odds is correct. there is a little potodds here aswell but that doesnt help enough.

i folded btw... think its the right thing to do

Last edited by airscape; 04-19-2008 at 03:29 AM.
NL25 getting 3betted, odds to setmine question Quote
04-19-2008 , 06:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sounded Simple
Im a bit tired so I wont go into the maths but if you are calling for set value this wont work.
.
So if he does 3bet narrow isnt that more of a reason to setmine?

Since his range will be narrower aka stronger.

I just don't ever see a fold here. Unless I know villain won't stack off with an overpair which is uncommon, let alone at 25nl.
NL25 getting 3betted, odds to setmine question Quote

      
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