This is my first post guys, hope it gets some good discussion going.

So I've been going back and forth with this player for the last hour. I won 2 big pots from him earlier in the session and I can tell he's getting frustrated with me.

Two earlier hands are important:

I raised UTG w/ A Q and he defended his BB. The flop came A 2 8. I cbet, he raised, I called. Turn comes 2. He bets 2/3 pot, I call. River is A. He bets less than 1/2 pot, I shove and he folds instantly. I make a note that he is capable of firing 3 barrels with a bluff or marginal hand.

Also, 2 hands before the hand I'm about to post, I pick up A J in the SB. He opens the button, I 3bet from SB (should have cold called), he 4bet and I folded.

He seems like a competent, aggressive player (25/16/11 over 68 hands), but he is really trying to get in a big pot with me.


Full Tilt Poker $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em - 4 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (CO): $111.10
BTN: $25.00
SB: $26.20
BB: $53.25

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is CO with Q A
Hero raises to $0.85, 2 folds, BB raises to $3, Hero calls $2.15

Flop: ($6.10) 8 4 Q (2 players)
BB bets $4.25, Hero calls $4.25

Turn: ($14.60) T (2 players)
BB bets $9.75, Hero calls $9.75

River: ($34.10) 4 (2 players)
BB bets $36.25 all in, Hero requests TIME, Hero ???

TPTK is basically the nuts in a 3bet pot. You shouldn't be flatting the 3bet if you're not going to happily get it in on a Q hi board. I don't mind your line though because if he's triple barrell bluffing then you let him keep firing with air or a marginal hand. River is a call though imo.

I agree with you 100% if you're playing 100 BB's deep, but effective stacks in this hand were over 200 BB's. I think you can profitably call a 3bet PRF and play TPTK cautiously with a 200 BB stack.

no way

fold river as played

Bump.

From the sounds of it he seems like an aggrotard, I think this is a good calldown. Any 3bet stats?

Your 3bet with AJs from the SB is fine btw.

Yeah - 4% 3bet over 68 hands, but he only folds to 3bets 25% of the time. He flatted several of my 3bets during the session.

The 3bet with AJs is a standard play for me, but shortly before the hand I made a note on this guy to not come after him without a hand (he was starting to get frustrated with me). As soon as I clicked raise I knew he was going to 4bet and I would have to fold.

Bump again, lol.

2 say call and 1 says fold. I need more responses!

I may be a nit but....this looks like a SUPEREASY fold on the river, this is always KK AA....

To the people who say call...what do you expect him to have...AK? JJ? This is a fold 95% of the time.

An over-generalization that is usually true 100bbs deep, but not even close to true 200bbs deep.

See above, with 200bbs we can certainly have goals besides "get the stacks in" when we flop TP in position.

I think it's close. If his value-range is TT,QQ+,AQ then we need ~20% of his range to be bluffs. If he plays KQ this way at least 75% it's definitely a call even if he never bluffs. My gut says he has us crushed but given the previous hands between you and the fact that you believe he's a thinking player, he could easily be going for thin value hoping you will call down light after catching him earlier.

I still think that most regs at these levels tighten up enough postflop w/ 200+bb stacks that we can probably fold, but it's definitely close enough that I could be persuaded.

Sorry, I thought it was 50NL.

200BB deep, I think I fold the river. His turn bet looks a lot like he's trying to set the stacks up for a pot sized river shove, which is obviously going to be for value. Close though

heh... whats his 3bet %? flatting AQ here is not always the right play

Fold river. He showed strength all the way out of position. He also manipulated his turn bet size to get to an approximate pot size bet on the river (he should have bet $11 on the turn, though).

... who 3barrels less than TPTK for 200bb?

seems an easy river fold to me. would be so rare for a TAG to triple barrel bluff in a spot like this for 200bb. no way its 50% of the time. need way more reads to call imo.

TPTK and he keeps firing on 3 streets and we are so deep stacked - my experience tells me i better fold,

I may call it based on his AF of 11...

his 3bet% would help, though...he might have AA/KK here if he's not aggro preflop (which is possible, there are players who are passive(PF)/aggro(postflop)...

this might be his attempt to play back at you cause you've caught him bluffing...on the other hand, he may be taking this into account and this time he's making the same play with the nuts...

as played, River is pretty close...I think I would fold and catch him in another hand...with AF of 11 he'll be giving all his $$ to me pretty soon (unless he gives it to someone else sooner)...

???

his turn bet looks weakish, if he wanted to set the stack size for a River value bet, he would bet 12...

68 hands is such a small sample size. All aggression factor tells you is he's betting more than he's calling.

As played, fold river.

The people who say call are probably thinking that this guy bluffs enough to make a call profitable. He's definitely an aggresive player (AF of 11) and was coming after me a lot before this hand. It's not likely he's going for thin value with a hand like JJ, TT or KQ.

It's really a question of whether he's got an overpair enough for me to fold or an AK type of bluff enough for me to call.

Thanks, this is a good response.

I don't think TT would be in his value range though. I was playing 27/25/3 at the time, with a WTSD% of 14. He couldn't think I would pay off 3 streets with 99 or AK.

How did you find that we need him to be bluffing 20% of the time? I ask because based on my brief session with this guy I would say he's bluffing 15-20% of the time here.

Looks like we're developing a consensus.

I'll give the results after a few more posts.

FWIW he shoved $36.25 into $34.10 on the riv, so a little over a PSB.

yes, but if he bet 12$ on the Turn, the pot on the River would be 38.6$ and he would have 34$ left in his stack so the River push wouldn't look that much as an overbet...but you're right, it doesn't make that much of a difference...

if I was in his place betting for value on the River, I would put 2/3 PSB...I would get called much more often and usually the other guy would push the rest of my stack in anyway...

this way, it looks more scary while the result when the Villain calls is almost always the same...

what I'm saying is that if he has the best hand here, his most +EV move would be to bet 2/3 PSB...

TT turned a set


If his value range is the one I listed, it's 22 combos. I had to add 6 combos of bluffs to give us enough equity to call, for a total of 28 combos. 6/28= 21% or so.

My bad, forgot turn was a T.

I see, thanks.